We're under the 40 hour mark here on the 40 Acres, and we've thought and re-thought this game, playing out every possible scenario in our heads. We're definitely sure that both teams are capable of winning the game, and if it's not a 50-50 pick 'em, it's pretty darn close.
Still, there are reasons that we believe Texas will win this game. Let's walk you through them, and open the floor for predictions of your own.
DKR Home field, baby. Statistically speaking, home field advantage is worth about a field goal, overall. When you're talking about closely matched teams, that usually slim advantage is magnified. Troy Smith and the Buckeye offense, of course, have played in some big, big games. Their last big game was a clinic at the Fiesta Bowl. But the two before that, night games against Penn State and Texas... were less glowing. Smith won't be rattled, but he might try to do too much. And it's gonna be loud. As if our defense needed another boost.
Gene Chizik 29 games. The teams this man has coached on the defensive side of the football have not lost a contest in 29 games. If you can find me an active streak more impressive, I'd like to see it. You don't accidentally win 29 straight games. The man knows defensive football.
Special Teams Finally, those extraordinary Buckeye place kickers are gone. And though Ted Ginn is an extraordinarily dangerous player in the open field, Greg Johnson is one hell of a punter. Add in the unmatched accomplishments of The Posse over the last six years, and Texas has a chance to steal a crucial advantage in this game.
11-9 = 2 Many of the Buckeye faithful have huffed and puffed until they're blue in the face, but there's simply no way to sugar coat the loss of 9 defensive starters to the National Football League. That's like the Florida Marlins firesaling their entire team and talking about how the young guys can succeed enough to keep them in the playoff chase... Um... Wait... Okay, so it's certainly possible that the new talent will play at a high level on Saturday night. It's a lot to ask of such an unproven unit. I don't think you can beat Texas in a wild shootout. Can the Buckeye defense slow down Texas' offense?
The Prediction (Caveat Emptor) Last season, Texas slopped their way through the second and third quarters with turnovers and lousy play, the Buckeye defense getting the best of them. Still, the defense stuck, and Vince did his thing. Well, Vince is gone, and the Buckeye defense is gone. What's the same? The Ohio State offense and the Texas defense. That includes Chizik for those scoring at home. We think Texas can move the ball enough to score some points, and we're not sure that Ohio State can win a shootout on the road under the lights. Add in what we think is a Texas special teams advantage, and we're predicting a victory.
The Texas Longhorns defeat the Ohio State Buckeyes in Austin, 27-24.
What are your predicitons, readers? Offer your prediction in the contest below: pick the exact score, and win a BON t-shirt. If multiple readers pick the correct winner, they'll square off in a pick 'em next weekend for a t-shirt. If you don't want the BON t-shirt, you can have a shirt from the university online store of your choice.
Hook 'Em Horns! Beat Ohio State!
--BON--
0 recs | 42 comments
texas 30
buckeyes 21Vice President Coco (40118) - September 8, 2006
Again...
I've already said it here, but I'll say it again: OSU 28, UT 21. You all keep talking about OSU's defense losing 9 guys, but, just like Texas, we reload - to a certain extent.What so many people seem to be ignoring is that, Santonio Holmes' absence aside, this Buckeye offense is much, MUCH more deadly than the one UT faced last year - and last year's Buckeyes managed 22 points...NOBODY seems to acknowledge that VY's almost magical abilities were worth at least 1 score a game (the Young-to Sweed pass last year in the 'Shoe was but ONE example of this) is not present this year, and the truth is UT doesn't know - AT ALL - what kind of quarterback they've got in McCoy, 1 game against NT notwithstanding.
With the "reloading" I mentioned above in mind, it's not unreasonable to think that the Buckeyes will score a little more than last year, and the Longhorns a little less.
Ergo: Buckeyes, 28-21.
matsut - September 8, 2006
NOBODY seems to acknowledge
that VY Didn't have a stellar game against OSU last year. The D did their job. That D and Vince are gone. It's a new game with pretty much new teams. The big matchup will be on the other side of the ball this year. I'm looking forward to a pretty close game (although the score won't indicate that).GoHorns - September 8, 2006
The ? is
Who is a better D unit. Texas' second team or tOSU's first. Colt did pretty well against our second team unit. Plus he has been around these guys over a year. It's not like he just came out of high school. I think you can see the diff that a year makes, playing or not, when you look at Snead.AdamDC - September 8, 2006
Texas 34
Ohio State 28. With no dependable kicker for OSU, I don't see this team dealing in field goals like last year.SuperBentley - September 8, 2006
I think a 10 point difference in the final score
Texas 31OSU 21
Wells - September 8, 2006
Texas
I stuck mine for the Big 12 week two here: http://www.cornnation.com/story/2006/9/8/04429/90251but... same score as last year:
Texas 25
Ohio State 22
cornnation @ Burnt Orange Nation - September 8, 2006
Texas 31
Ohio State 27loganck - September 8, 2006
Oh where to begin
My final score wil not be indicative of the game. I agree with the assessments of Peter and Andrew, with a few minor discrepancies.Special Teams: I give Texas a little more than a slight advantage. I think the talent of Ginn and Ross/Cosby almost even out (slight edge to Ginn). But the UT special teams coverage is phenomenal. Ginn is fast, but so is UT. Holes will not be available for him to utilize his speed. As for when OSU is kicking, if you can't get the kick off, it doesn't mean a thing. Texas has the best kick blocking unit in the country. Look for a lot of pressure on the unsure kickers.
OSU O vs. UT D: Not a good match-up. A GREAT match-up. The weakest point on OSU's O is the O-line. I'm not saying they're not good, but that is their softest spot. That's saying something for their O. However, the D-line for Texas happens to be one of the best (if not the best) in the entire country. Don't discount this match-up. This will be absolutely critical. But with all the talent OSU has on Offense, I have to give this match-up a push.
UT O vs. OSU D: A lot of people are saying this is weakness vs. weakness. I'm sure 95% of all teams in the country would love to have either "weakness". No, neither is up to par with the other side of the ball on their own team, but really, who is? Again, losing 9 starters is critical. Ok, OSU is replacing talent with talent. There is a drop-off. It may be minor, but not a push. The biggest thing they are losing is experience in big games and to some extent leadership. UT's offense lost an enormous amount of leadership in VY, but none in experience. The other skill players are amazing and the O-line is considered one of the best in the country. Advantage: UT - pretty significant.
Coaching: Tressel is good. Mack is good. But this game is about more than just the head coaches. In a match-up of this magnitude the assistants play a huge role. UT has the last 2 Frank Browle award winners (best assistant coach) in Greg Davis (UT - 2005) and Gene Chizik (Auburn - 2004). Oh yeah, Chizik hasn't lost in a while. He's not due.
Final thoughts: Like Mack said last night, losing Tarell is big, but Texas recruits really well. If there isn't anyone to back him up the coaches haven't done their job. I don't think there will be a huge drop off in this department. He will be missed, but it's not the end of the world. I think Texas will have a touchdown lead late in the game with OSU having the ball. Troy Smith will attempt to employ the hurry-up offense (with the new clock rules) and will end up making a big mistake that will allow Texas to score one more touchdown before the final cannon sounds.
Final Score: Texas: 31 OSU:17
GoHorns - September 8, 2006
Ass whoopin, texas style
UT - 49tOSU - 10
Effing tOSU ends up turning the ball over 4 times during the game and TX takes advantage. tOSU defense gives up TD runs of 3, 11, 15, 27 and 67 to JC. Ouch.
jimmer - September 8, 2006
good
pick. hahahahah303Dub - September 9, 2006
Texas 42 Ohio State 31
patienthornsfan - September 8, 2006
Horns 21 - 17
It will be tight.Ginn is the least of their concerns. A receiver can almost never have a huge impact and completely change a game. T. Brown or no Brown, that Texas secondary isn't gonna let him go nuts. It just isn't gonna happen. They need to stop Smith and Pittman from converting 3rd downs.
Special teams is where its at. Ross scares me the way he gets greedy and tries for too much, while holding the ball out. On the other hand Texas needs to kick away from Ginn. tOSU missed some field goals and I think this might be a weakness. If Texas can fight in the red zone, where Ginn can't really hurt them, then I think they can force some misses.
GD and Mack need to let Colt play loose. I would love more than anything to see Colt take a shot down field on the first series. It would send a message. The same one Mack sent to Petey in the Rose Bowl when he put his defense on the field first. "Take your best shot sucka, cause its on"
EYESofBEVO - September 8, 2006
Texas 24-17
OSU linebackers were soft last week against the run. This week, it gets worse. Young & Charles combine for 250 yds.Chizik and the D are too familiar with mobile QBs, and Troy Smith won't be the game breaker that people think. Ginn beats the secondary deep for one of the OSU TDs.
Brandon 97 - September 8, 2006
Busted Buckeyes
Close to the 4th quarter... but too much everything, soHorns 27
Buckeyes 17
Ted Ginn Jr and Troy Smith join Brady Quinn sliding down the Heisman list....
Margaritaking - September 8, 2006
Is it just me?
Or does everyone (especially in the MSM) continuously forget about how extradorinary our Special Teams unit actually is?Texas 31
Ohio St. 21
orangeblood1 - September 8, 2006
Horns 34
Buckeyes 28It's all about MB managing his players and keeping them (esp.the young'uns) from being mentally caught up in the hype.
burntorangenance - September 8, 2006
Horns 24 / OSU 14
Ffej333 - September 8, 2006
Horns 38 Buckeyes 27
Buckeyes defence gave up 340+ yards last week, at 70 yards average a possesion thats 4 touchdowns and maybe 2 field goals. The Horns offence should do better. Make it six scoring drives 5 touchdowns and 1 field goal, they'll need 450 yards for this. Horn should have 2 or 3 stalled drives and 2 punts.The horns defence except for one drive held North Texas to almost 0 yards. Ohio will do much better than that. Five scoring drives (3 td and 2 fg) will require about 7 or 8 big plays from Troy Smith and Co. that's about all they can expect from the horns defence (about 380 yards on offence). Ohio St. should have 3 or 4 stalled drives and 3 punts.
Special teams should give the Horns some field position advantages and the Buckeyes should face longer fields to score.
Xerxes - September 8, 2006
UT wins 35 - 24
blackdog81 - September 8, 2006
TX 35 - OSU 0
Yeah, I know this prediction not completely realistic with the relative inexperience and all... but I see Colt coming into his own in this game.As for the shutout, I think tomorrow night is when the world finds out that Mean Gene had the boys completely sandbag the UNT game. The D will pound on Smith, Ginn, and Company all night long, causing much wailing and gnashing of teeth. At the end, Chizik will step onto the field with a flowing cape, bald head and Fu Manchu a la Ming the Merciless and declare, "I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds."
Bet on it.
Wow, it's amazing how little work I've done today.
Kahuna - September 8, 2006
Little work done
It's eerily reminiscent of how little work got done the entire week before the Rose Bowl. My addiction is getting worse. Is that a bad thing?GoHorns - September 8, 2006
Feed the BEAST
Its the only cureAdamDC - September 8, 2006
turns out Wolfe actually isn't better than JC....
tOSU scores on a couple of big plays, but doesn't sustain long drives against this D. And swing-state aggies find out wishing real hard just don't make it so, as JC shows the rest of the world what we've seen already.Texas - 34-21
agent orange - September 8, 2006
exciting game
Horns - 35funky-looking nuts - 29
BigTexBD - September 8, 2006
Sorry fellas...
But I just don't see you guys pulling this out. Cheaty McSweatervest is too loaded on offense and their D is still well above average. I'll still be pulling hard for you guys though. I hope I'm wrong!Buckeyes - 31
Horns - 28
WeisWatcher - September 8, 2006
what>?
Who let the Notre Dame guy on? Aren't you supposed to be looking for a defense?kicker @ Burnt Orange Nation - September 8, 2006
lol
yeah even tho i see where the Notre Dame guy is coming from...thats really funny...the defense comment.Galloway - September 8, 2006
Realistic
Troy Smith knows how to run a big game...tOSU gets a lead and sits on it with the running game, texas late surge isnt enough...Ohio State is more careful with the ball...winning the turnover battle, and the game.Ohio State - 33
Texas - 27
Galloway - September 8, 2006
Horns by a nose
TX 23OSU 20
thejahpaul - September 8, 2006
Prediction
Texas - 24Ohio St. - 19
aorist9 - September 9, 2006
Texas 34
Ohio st 23Kool Hand - September 9, 2006
TEXAS 28
tOSU 21yep - that simple
jimmer - September 9, 2006
ok...
how aboutOhio State - 24
Texas - 7
...i cheated =/
Galloway - September 10, 2006
BUCKEYES!!!!!
I can't believe these predictions. You guys actually had faith in this team. 11-9=2 returning starters but SHUTDOWN the TX offense. Look for OU and A&M (at least) to do the same.tressel4president - September 10, 2006
Way to win with grace
Err... wait, no.Douche bag.
Peter Bean - September 10, 2006
Uhm
"11-9=2 returning starters but SHUTDOWN the TX offense"If you mean by shutdown, 28 fewer yards than OSU then yes, it was shutdown.
Good luck playing against Tate or Henne.
If OSU makes it to the Fiesta Bowl Auburn, USC or W. Virginia will absolutely destroy the Buckeyes.
That isn't sour grapes, but a fact.
EYESofBEVO - September 10, 2006
Now Your Just Being
A sore loser. All the Texas fans came in to this game talking all types of shit about OSU's defense. 7 POINTS. Thats all it gave up, it forced a fumble inside the ten yard line and Laurnitis picked off a ball to set up a touchdown. The defense gave up yards, but came up big when it had to. And, Whos gonna stop this offense?303Dub - September 10, 2006
Did I make the "Shutdown" comment?
Just pointing out that OSU will face QBs that aren't freshman or from a MAC school.They should be concerned about the run defense, which is supposed to be a constant for Tressel.
Maybe OSU will improve as the season goes along, but if OSU faces a competent offense that can convert more than 25% of their 3rd downs, then the Buckeyes are in for trouble.
The better team won last night, there is no doubt about that. Texas got out hustled and out coached.
That's why OSU giving up so many yards raises an eyebrow.
EYESofBEVO - September 10, 2006
are you watching?
Obviously you haven't watched Michigan or Iowa play football this season yet. Let me guess, you think that Penn State is going to challenge us too? Two words about Penn State: Notre Dame!!!About "shutdown"
No I didn't mean anything about yards. Yards don't mean crap when you can't trade them in for points. Shutdown implies 7 points. 7 POINTS!
tressel4president - September 10, 2006
"Shutdown implies 7 points. 7 POINTS!"
Thanks for clarifying the smack talk. The extra punctuation and capital letters helps me understand better.How many freshman QBs will OSU face in the BIG 10?
Mich
Iowa
Mich State
You won, good job. Enjoy the win, because it will be meaningless unless you win the conference or MNC.
EYESofBEVO - September 10, 2006
what???
WV, are you kidding me?tressel4president - September 10, 2006
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