Chip Brown says that the Big 12's reputation for the season is at stake next Saturday in a handful of "sink or swim" matchups:
Missouri has a chance for the Big 12's first victory against the SEC – at Ole Miss – after Georgia and Auburn slapped around Oklahoma State and Kansas State, respectively. Texas A&M must avert a potential ambush by an improved Fresno State. And Texas Tech has what appears to be routine home game against UTEP after playing at SMU today.
But is anything routine anymore? After Appalachian State? After Arkansas State?
No two games are bigger to the Big 12 this weekend than Miami's first meeting with Oklahoma since the Hurricanes beat the Sooners for the 1987 national title, and TCU's first meeting with Texas since 1995.
I think Chip's right, especially after the Big 12 struck out twice against the SEC in opening week. (Kansas State leaked away a game to Auburn, while Oklahoma State was thoroughly buried by Georgia.) I've been contending that this is an improved conference in 2007, but we'll have to re-evaluate if more teams sink than swim next Saturday.
The Houston Chronicle's Moisekapenda Bower writes that Texas and Texas A&M are just happy to be winners given Michigan's stunning loss to Appy State. I suppose that's true to some extent, but I know both teams (and coaches) have much, much bigger goals than "surviving" the 2007 season. In particular, Fran needs A&M to contend seriously for the Big 12 title or he could find himself on the outside looking in come this offseason.
The Chron's Joseph Duarte has a string of random week one thoughts, none of which may be more important than his note that Oklahoma became the "team to beat" in the Big 12 after week one.
OU starting quarterback Sam Bradford set a school record when he completed 20 of his 22 first half pass attempts for 350 yards. Meanwhile, freshman tailback Demarco Murray scored five touchdowns.
I think most everyone agreed that OU's defense looked better on paper than Texas' heading into the season. The Longhorns' supposed advantage was to be on offense, but McCoy and Co. looked stagnant in the opener. I'm not ready to give up on Texas' offensive potency after one week, but consider me officially "on notice" that OU's own offense might be as good as its been since the 2000-2004 run.
--PB--
0 recs | 35 comments
No reassurance from TCU game
Predictions for the TCU game
Texas time of possession less than 30 min
Defense can't get off the field with 5-8 yard completions by TCU on every third down (TCU quarterback completed passes to 10 different receivers).
Texas rushing yards less than 75
DE Blake is back for TCU and Texas' zone-blocking sweep out of the shotgun produces less than 2 yards/carry (60% of outside runs by Baylor went for < 3 yards, with 25% gaining 0 or negative yardage).
Colt McCoy has 2 more interceptions
He will likely be under pressure on more than 10 third and long situations in the game.
How can Texas win?
Limas Sweed makes two explosive plays for touchdowns
Texas runs, gasp, some draw plays UP THE MIDDLE with JC (Baylor averaged 4.6 yards on draw plays, surely UT can do better)
Ryan Bailey outkicks Manfredini of TCU
Texas wins 20-17
burnt in ny - September 3, 2007
Visions of an OU whipping
As much as I hate to say this, Oklahoma is as impressive as it has ever been. By the RRS, DeMarco Murray will be the starter and will score on at least 2 long runs and the UT secondary makes its final collapse before the coaches realize it's do or die with the sophomores and freshmen DB's
OU 45 UT 17
The real question is, will UT be competitive by 2008?
burnt in ny - September 3, 2007
Let's not forget....
Oklahoma beat North Texas - we need to keep this all in perspective. The picture will be a lot more clear this week after OU plays an improved Miami team and Texas meets TCU. I also agree with the post below that says some credit needs to be given to Arkansas State. Everybody needs to take a deep breath and see what happens this week - a poor showing against TCU could mean a tough season ahead - let's hope that doesn't happen.
Also, was anybody else sickened by Kirk Herbstreit gushing over USC during the Tenn / Cal game? He had to wipe the jizz off his lips at least a dozen times. GUARANTEED to go undefeated? Give me a break Herbstreit - they may go undefeated, no doubt, but it is far from guaranteed as I expect tough games for SC from both UCLA and Cal.
Screw O.U. - September 3, 2007
Not so fast my friend...
It seems to me (I'm not singling anyone out because I'm doing it too) that we're all overreacting to this past weekend's events. I don't think that either the Texas game or the OU game can be looked at as barometers for the rest of each team's season. Texas was undoubtedly sloppy, stagnant, disinterested, etc., but they still got the win. After re-watching the game, I realized that while they were very sloppy, they were only a couple plays from the huge opening game blowouts that we have become accustomed to. The goal line debacle, Colt missing a wide open Nate Jones for a TD, Colt's first interception that killed a good drive, personal fouls and pass interference calls to keep ASU drives alive. All of those things are normally things that go Texas' way in the cupcake openers and result in huge blowouts. Saturday, they didn't and there was no blowout. Now for OU. If you all recall the opening game last year, North Texas came down to Austin to face the Longhorns who were to be led by a redshirt freshman quarterback, and they got stomped 56-7 or something. Texas went on to lose 3 games that year, including the a loss the very next week when they faced an extremely talented Ohio State team. Fast forward one year, North Texas travels to Norman to take on the Sooners and their redshirt freshman quarterback, and they get stomped again, 79-10. Next week, OU takes on an extremely talented (but thus far unproven) Miami team. Am I saying that OU will lose this game? No, what I'm saying is that I believe it's ludicrous to project these teams whole seasons due to the results of their Sun Belt openers. Bottom line is, everyone needs to RELAX. Texas will get better, and OU will certainly not beat everyone 79-10. The teams that we saw Saturday night are not the teams that will play each other come October 6th.
Sweed4Heisman - September 3, 2007
I think by the end of the season, everyone will
say that OU's receiving corps is better than what texas has.
I may be in the severe minority, but after ALL the hype, I expected more from Murray.
He didn't even get 100 yds rushing.
5 TDs is impressive, yes, but I thought we'd be seeing another Adrian Peterson-type talent.
Beergut - September 3, 2007
I don't think Iglesias is that good.
Saw him play several times in HS, plus what he has done in OU games I've watched. Speed and some talent, yes, but other worldly, not a chance.
He's a competent collegiate receiver - and he's the best they have at this point. And he's not as fast as Quan or Pittman by a long shot nor has the assets package that Sweed does. Shipley and Jones have comparable or better speed. And I don't mean to ignore Finley, who has better hands.
OU just doesn't have that depth yet - it may enhance that by mid-season - but it doesn't now.
What OU does have is a good, mature OL. And right now that's the big difference. They run block. The Horns' OL has to mature in the next three games.
whills - September 3, 2007
The best they've got?
What about Malcolm Kelly?
Sweed4Heisman - September 3, 2007
Bite my tongue off.
You're right and I'm wrong - Kelly is the big one in the 1-2 punch and has the receptions and yards to prove it.
Manuel Johnson is also productive, 36-378 last year. There's some real depth at TE, but not much behind the three starting receivers. No more speed either, and Iglesias and Johnson are 4.5 and 4.49 guys. Perhaps they translate that well to football speed, but that's pretty average for top 25 programs now.
That being said, reliable pass catchers are always hard to come by, regardless of the speed. As long as they stay healthy and Bradford can get the ball to them, they could prove Beergut right.
But they don't have the proven depth that Texas does, although the Horns could lose that, too, and do face similar problems getting the ball to receivers, so it seems.
whills - September 4, 2007
At what point
do we give Arkansas State some credit for not bending over and taking it like the typical patsies that come into Austin, Ann Arbor, etc. every September. Yes, if they're both playing up to their potential then the Horns should win by 40, but that obviously wasn't the case. I think the Boise State win has given coaches something to point to (now Appalachian St. has replaced it) when their teams are so outmatched.
Combine a motivated, never give up Arkansas State team with an unmotivated Texas team a little taken aback that they weren't spotted 40 points by halftime, and it becomes a struggle until the end.
I think we'd all feel better if they won 56-7 but that may have hidden some increasingly obvious deficiencies that may not have surfaced until after a TCU loss next week.
JT Longhorn - September 3, 2007
Felt like a preseason game
You may be right. The game started like the blowout everyone expected (up 21-3) and then the UT players seemed to lose interest. What bothered me is that they couldn't get the intensity back (no scores in the red zone, dumb penalties. Or, did Ark State make adjustments that UT didn't respond to?
burnt in ny - September 3, 2007
Big 12 still a weak sister
After Week 1, it's clear that Oklahoma will be the dominant team in the Big 12, with UT, Nebraska, Kansas State (up 13-9 on the road against Auburn late in the third quarter) and maybe A&M as pretenders. Okie State, Missouri, and Texas Tech still have no defense, and there's not much to be said for Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, or Kansas.
Why the inferiority to the SEC?
For the majority of teams it comes down to fewer dominant athletes along the defensive line and at LB, and some less than stellar coaches.
The jury is still out on the Big 12's strength relative to other conferences, in my opinion. The Pac 10 still seems short on defense, and what else is there to say about the Big 10 other than App State 34 Michigan 32.
burnt in ny - September 3, 2007
why the inferiority?
Oklahoma State got beat. I'll give that much to Georgia.
But the Kansas State game? Another example of playing a SEC school in their home stadium - where you get screwed by refs.
Seemed like any time Auburn's crappy offense stalled, a penalty would appear to keep them going.
Wow. You guys need to stop being so depressed.
cornnation @ Burnt Orange Nation - September 3, 2007
you're right - however ...
I've never been one to go pessimistic on the Horns. What I'm feeling is some deep disappointment after a long off-season. And, for some reason, this feels like 1976 to me. Texas, with a young Earl Campbell in the wishbone, was coming off a 10-2 season ranked #7. The opening game was a shocker -- a pathetic, one-point loss to BC on the road. A week later, a three-point win at home -- over North Texas. We managed to tie OU, but then the losses mounted. Tech. Houston. Baylor. atm. After a 5-5-1 season, there was no bowling for the first time in nine years. [Of course, we rebounded the next year with a new coach (Akers), a healthy Campbell (he missed most of '76) and, from the OU game on, a third-string quarterback. But that's another story.]
On Saturday against TCU, we'll know whether Ark State was an aberration, or whether this is 1976 all over again. I'm going with the former -- at least until Sunday.
NYCHorn - September 3, 2007
I remember that year all too well...
the other two major things that killed that year were 1. we replaced, in a manner of speaking, Marty Akins with Mike Cordero... and kept running the same offense. And 2. it wasn't just Campbell. Everybody seemed to get injured that year. I seem to recall that at one point or another 18 of the original 22 starters were out... and then after it was all almost mercifully over, everything came together and we dog-whipped Arkansas in the last game for both Darrell and Frank Broyles.
This doesn't feel at all like 1976 to me. Unless we run into the same injury bug we did then (and to a lesser extent, last year...), we will not lose 5 games.
We had a bad game. And yes, there are concerns. Primarily, what PB has mentioned a couple of times, that it's the same exact problems we ended last year with. From the looks of it, we're not going to answer all of them the way we'd like to, but if we tighten up and come out with a little more fire and a lot more discipline, we'll be probably better than ok...
agent orange - September 5, 2007
I agree about KState
Listening to the Horns on the radio, I had KState on the tube. They have a tough, head knocking defense and controlled the game. The home calls helped Auburn a lot.
The final shot on the QB and fumble return is what sealed the game, not any real offensive might. I expected KSt to come back until that play. Seldom do I ever feel bad for them, but on Saturday I did; they played well enough to get the win.
I've known some boxers that ventured into the deep south for matches and the hard truth of that experience (middle heavy weights), you better knock them out because you're not going to win a split decision. Ain't gonna happen. Same goes for the plains. KO them before the fourth quarter or watch your chances fade away.
whills - September 3, 2007
quick question
What's the difference between "seasonal reputation" and "reputation"?
Kool Hand - September 3, 2007
Chip Brown???
"Auburn slapped around...Kansas State."
Did he watch a different game than I did? For about three quarters, it was precisely the opposite, as K-State took the game to Auburn, especially on defense. Now in the fourth quarter, no argument, but I'd say K-State acquitted the conference and itself fairly well at Auburn.
TB - September 3, 2007
As much as I was disappointed by the game...
let's keep a positive outlook. That was only the first game and there is no point labeling this season as a failure already.
I definitely felt like this was a tune-up game. It seemed as if the coaches were treating the game as another scrimmage. For the most of the time, I didn't feel like there were game plans laid out for each offensive possession. We were taking it down by down and doing a situational practice.
The bottom line is that we played a bad team, and that happens when you know your opponent is less talented.
hookemkp - September 3, 2007
We have more to worry about than just OU PB
As I posted in your initial post-game thoughts thread, there are a number of stats to be scared of:
patienthornsfan - September 3, 2007
As of right now
we only have one thing to worry about, and that's TCU this Saturday. Texas will be fine, relax.
Sweed4Heisman - September 3, 2007
not sure how much you can declare after week 1
We'll know a whole lot more after next weekend. It's too early to declare that the sky is falling on this team. It's also too early to call OU 'the team to beat' simply because they routed North Texas.
We can save that for next week after we've seen us against TCU and OU play Miami.
the other Andrew - September 3, 2007
Agreed
From a K-State perspective, I remember back in 2004, K-State routed North Texas 54-6 or something like that, and went on to a 4-7 season. Blowing out a crappy team does not ensure success, although it's obviously more encouraging than the alternative.
TB - September 3, 2007
Does the past lie?
I went back to 1980 and looked at number of victories in a season for UT and the margin of victory in a first or second game of the season, at home, against a clearly weaker opponent (including N. Mexico State, North Texas, Rice, Louisiana-Lafayette). In seasons when the margin of victory was greater than 25, the average number of wins was more than 10. In seasons when the margin of victory was less than 25, the average number of wins was 6. For the 8-point margin on Saturday, the expected maximum number of wins (99% accuracy) is 7!!!!. The 21-13 was the lowest margin of victory in a "home patsy" game of the Mack Brown era.
This season, we as fans need to celebrate every victory and take nothing!! for granted.
burnt in ny - September 3, 2007
the only other time
in Mack's tenure that I remember such a horrid opening week game against a patsy was 2002, when Texas won 27-0 over North Texas. Despite having the first teamers in for most of the second half, the Horns didn't score at all. Everyone was screaming doom and gloom for that team and all they did was go 11-2 that year.
so yeah, your 25-point cutoff sure makes it seem bad, until you make it a 28-point cutoff. then the past doesn't look so bad, at least in the mack brown era.
billyzane - September 3, 2007
No, it doesnt lie...
but I'm not really sure a poor showing in game one is indicative of a bad season. Plus, scheduling was a whole lot different up until the BCS got into the mix.
Hell, under Mack, we've blown out a bunch of patsies in the opener, only to lose the very next game (98 Nm St - UCLA, 2000 ULaLa - Stanford, '03 Nm St - Arkansas, 06 North Texas - tOSU).
So, I'm taking margin of victory for this first game with a grain of salt. Next week should be the true indicator of how our season is going to go.
There are some things that obviously need to be improved for us to beat TCU and others. Maybe the coaching staff though they fixed them, but it became apparent against Ark St that we still have a lot of the same issues that plagued us towards the end of 06.
the other Andrew - September 3, 2007
nice analysis
i was thinking along those same lines, but of course didn't crunch the numbers. i agree w/ your conclusion as well.
I am glad i have Hawaii to root for this season as well.
MMHorns - September 3, 2007
its only the season opener
CALM DOWN! the defense held Arkansas State to thirteen points and remember Greg Davis and Mack Brown said that they were going to have the offense go very mellow on Arkansas State so that TCU would not know the texas offense. look out for texas to put up at least twenty eight on a great TCU defense.
Hook'em13 - September 3, 2007
the defense was lucky it was only 13
Chuck Carlton in the Dallas Morning News has some stats that offer a sobering perspective on our defense:
NYCHorn - September 3, 2007
Texas favored by 9.5 over TCU
wow
MMHorns - September 3, 2007
Trying to suck in that TCU money.
And the gamblers knock we didn't get close to covering last week.
You got the line on Miami-OU?
whills - September 3, 2007
Some final thoughts on strange energies
There was a weird energy running through the whole weekend. Nearly a perfect game, then a no-hitter the next night, strangeness in tennis, great upset at Michigan, a surreal quality to the whole weekend.
You get weekends like that in both pros and college, usually on the full moon (when home dogs are truly dangerous), occasionally on the new moon when the unusual occurs. The moon wasn't either of those (gibbous waning) but there was an unusual feeling to the whole weekend. It was great for those who could grab hold of it.
When Texas held its focus, it did just fine. When the Horns lost focus in the second quarter, Arkansas State attacked and kept attacking until the end of the game. Whatever the vibe was, they locked on to it and didn't let go.
The Horns looked arrogant and overbearing on the field at times, and I think Arkansas St. saw through that. Talking and sucking attention ain't necessarily playing well. There's a fine line between field aggression and arrogance; step over it and you're asking for trouble.
When such an odd weekend happens, sometimes the only thing you can do is hold on to your ass.
The week before the wishbone streak got started, Texas lost to Tech up there; the Horns fumbled and stumbled like drunken sailors. Everything that could go bad, did. The next week they had a super comeback in the last two minutes to dump OU and start the 30-game winning streak. Sometimes you just don't know what you're dealing with until much later.
And where it is really going is anybody's guess.
whills - September 3, 2007
Terribly amazing stat
I heard on the WWL today, so it may or may not be true, that Big 12 teams have lost their last 17 non-conference games against ranked opponents. The next one? You guessed it. Our Horns get to break that streak.
BigTexBD - September 3, 2007
Does that include bowl games?
Have there really been 17 games against ranked opponents since the rose bowl title game? Does Oklahoma's loss to Oregon last year count?
Wells - September 3, 2007
That's all they said
It was just one of those "we'll leave you with this interesting tidbit" type things where they say it without any other info and let it sink in. I didn't take the time to look at each one of those games, or any one of those games, for that matter.
BigTexBD - September 4, 2007
ESPN
said it this morning, so I guess it is true, and I think it has been since the rose bowl.
Wells - September 4, 2007
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