"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." - Will Muschamp
Gee thanks, coach.
No, in fairness to his intellect and my sense of self-worth, Muschamp was saying that there's no sense in gawking over gaudy defensive statistics if you're not winning games. And I totally agree. Statistics other than the final score are a great way to figure out how a team is going about coming to that final score, and for extrapolating from there. But that final score is all that really matters, at a base level. So in the sense that Muschamp's saying, "As long as we're not allowing the other team to outscore our offense, I don't care what the statistics are," I'm totally cool with that. In fact, let's make that the theme of this weeks Numbers Game.
That should be easy right? We'll just look at both Oklahoma's and Texas' ability to score more than their opponents (i.e. "to win games"):
| Team |
Record |
Points For |
Points Against |
Margin of Victory |
| Texas |
5-0 |
47.20 |
11.40 |
35.80 |
| Oklahoma |
5-0 |
49.60 |
13.80 |
35.80 |
Well all right then. Advantage: no one. Both teams are tied with each other for the highest margin of victory in division 1A. This will require some further investigation. Onward!
Let's take a look at the scoring margin of each team by quarter this year (all numbers are positive):
| Team |
1st Quarter |
2nd Quarter |
3rd Quarter |
4th Quarter |
Total Margin |
| Texas |
43 |
60 |
42 |
34 |
179 |
| Oklahoma |
100 |
38 |
37 |
4 |
179 |
Since neither team has played a truly competitive game yet, and all games have been completely out of reach by the 4th quarter, it seems reasonable here to say that the second half scoring differences probably shouldn't have the same weight as the first half. If the games are already out of reach and teams are playing their second string, what difference does that make to the outcome of the Texas-OU game? These percentages I'm using are completely arbitrary, but I'm going to weigh the 1st half at 100%, the 3rd quarter at 75% and the 4th quarter at 25%. An adjusted and revised table:
| Team |
1st Quarter |
2nd Quarter |
3rd Quarter |
4th Quarter |
Total Margin |
| Texas |
43 |
60 |
31.50 |
8.5 |
143.00 |
| Oklahoma |
100 |
38 |
27.75 |
1.0 |
166.75 |
We talk a lot about the points that Texas' second team offense has given up late in the game via turnovers, but we don't seem to also mention that Texas seems to have run up the score in the 4th quarter of some of these games (not necessarily on purpose on in an unsportsmanlike manner, but it's happened). In the chart above, Oklahoma seems to have the advantage in meaningful margin of victory. That is, OU is scoring more points than its opponents in meaningful portions of the games at a greater rate than Texas is, especially in the 1st quarter. However, it must be noted that Texas has only been outscored in 1 quarter the entire year, and it was a meaningless quarter (the 4th quarter against Colorado, by 4 points). Oklahoma, however, has been outscored in 3 quarters this year, including twice in the second quarter (to Cincinnati and Baylor).
What does the above chart mean though? Short answer : I have no idea. Possibly that Oklahoma starts out with a good game plan and then when the other teams adjust in the second quarter, some of their advantage is taken away? OU gets out to a big lead and then coasts? Texas comes into the game with a mediocre gameplan and then adjusts well? Texas plays hard the whole game. All of these are possible, and I'm open to ideas.
I think perhaps the best explanation (and most annoying) is that Texas just isn't as good as Oklahoma. OU executes their game plans in the first quarter and absolutely dominates. They then weather the other team's adjustments while still extending their leads and then just run out the clock. That's how they get their large margin of victory. Texas, on the other hand, plays hard throughout the game, continually adding on to their leads, so that by the end of the 4th quarter, the margin of victory is the same as OU's. If OU's better though, Texas at least has the advantage of having played full games this year (even if they're using second stringers by the end), while OU plays 2.5 to 3 quarter games. This will in all likelihood be a 4 quarter game and it's possible that some advantage in the second half will go to the team that's used to playing the 4th quarter like its a real game.
And I'm officially grasping at straws now. But you know what? I don't care. This week, stats are for losers, and I like winning ballgames too, coach. So let's get out there and score more points than those toothless, slack-jawed, loudmouth douchebag yokels from the dust bowl. BEAT OU.
Always remember, you can't spell loudmouth douchebags without 3 OUs.
Hook 'em.
One thing that may have an impact on first quarter
Is that we’ve kicked off to start every game, whereas OU has received first in two games. Ok sure, that’s probably mostly meaningless, but it may have some small impact? Right? Umm…. OU sucks!
Meekrob - October 10, 2008
I used to find this habit of Texas's silly...
… until I realized the strategy of it, and now I do it too in NCAA09.
You elect to kick. In either of two scenarios, you have the longterm advantage: a) you get thrashed in the first half, make second half adjustments (while the winning team presumably sticks to what was working for them in the first), and come out BIG TIME in the first drive of the 2nd half; b) YOU do the thrashing in the first half, maybe make some adjustments during halftime, and then come out and add some insult to injury with the first drive of the 2nd half.
We’ve seen OU quit after 2 quarters in the past (CU last year, for instance) – so deferring to the second half could have a huge advantage here.
TXinDC - October 10, 2008
To be correct...
if you win the toss you actually elect to defer your choice to the second half. 10 times out of 10 when the team who wins the coin toss and elects to defer, the losing team will elect to receive the opening kick off. If the team who wins the coin toss elects to defer and the losing team elects to kick the opening kick off, then the team that deferred would still have the choice to kick or receive to open the 2nd half. What do you think they’re going to chose? Receive, right. So, that’s why a team that wins the toss and defers almost always kicks to start the game.
abtxutfan - October 10, 2008
Only time I've seen a team kick to start both halves
was us against A&M, I believe in 2004. The Texags almost crashed.
Horncasting - October 10, 2008
To clarify A&M kicked off to start both halves. NT Whills
Horncasting - October 10, 2008
A long, long time ago
DKR elected to kick at the start of a game against A&M. The TV announcers were stunned. The sideline reporter asked him why, to which he replied that in an emotional game, sometimes it took awhile for the players to settle down. He would rather the other team had the ball first, so that any mistakes handling the ball would go against them. The Aggie fielding the kickoff dropped it, or they fumbled on their first series, and we scored almost immediately. As memory serves, they fumbled again shortly after our next kickoff. The game was effectively over less than 5 minutes in.
Longhorn in Canada - October 10, 2008
Texas scored three times in the first five minutes.
We were singing Poor Aggies before most people were in their seats.
That happened in the north end and I had tickets on that end. It was great.
I want to say that was 1972 when Texas won 38-3.
whills - October 10, 2008
Of course, you could have this, where choice is no choice.
I’ve heard this story about the Sizemore days (wishbone heyday): Texas went out to call the pre-game toss. The Texas captains called the coin flip and it wound up on the side they called, the Texas players just started walking off the field. One of the opposition players called out “What you gonna choose?” and Sizemore yelled back:
It don’t make a damn, we’re going to kick your fucking ass.
Attitude. Confidence. Meanness. No prisoners. OU sucks.
whills - October 10, 2008
If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice. nt whills
BoddickerIsClutch - October 10, 2008
True. And Sizemore had made the choice.
I do think that OU utilizes their intimidation factor in this present era somewhat better than Texas does. It is important to note that they both have an intimidation factor but a lot of that cancels out in this game. Not always – oh yeah, we remember those where it didn’t – but that intimidation factor normally doesn’t last that long. I’m looking more for the attitude than the mouthing off, the hits instead of the bullshit.
Obviously, if you hold OU down in the first quarter, the nature of the game changes. Take 100 points out of their total – 20 per game – and that leaves 79 for the last three for five games – about 16 or so per game.
Part of that would be defense, part would be ball control. I think the Horns will receive tomorrow if we have the choice. My caveat is that if Muschamp feels that good about his D, he may want to kick; but I really doubt that. The best strategy is to score and attack (re: Patton/Rommel). Let OU receive the second half, after Muschamp has made his adjustments.
whills - October 10, 2008
Thanks a lot BiC...
…now I get to spend the rest of the night trying to get Rush out of my head.
learned hand - October 10, 2008
our kickoff coverage needs to improve drastically....
that’s what will make a big difference. If they hadn’t moved the OOB Penalty tot he 40 yrd line, I’d have them kick it out of bounds every time.
512 - October 10, 2008
i just hope we come out and pop OU in the mouth
i like the way you break down the scoring by quarters. really shows how OU is vulerable as to the fact that if we come out throwing haymakers to the chin that we can stagger them and they wont score as many points in the first couple of quarters. i dont know why im throwing out so many boxing phrases. anyway, i’ve watched a couple of minutes here and there of the OU games and it seems that OU only hits long passes for TD and cant recall if i’ve seen them actually put together a solid 80 yard drive. if i had to describe them, in my opinion, they look like the patriots did last year and also a little like texas tech. i was wondering how their redzone offense has been because the way to defend a team like this is they are less effective when the field gets shorter. i may be wrong and i really cant bring myself to watch a full OU game, unless they are getting their asses handing to em in the Fiesta Bowl, so i could only be seeing a small portion of their offense. let me know what you guys think
kcc28 - October 10, 2008
they can drive too....at least against baylor
i watched the OU baylor game on replay last night with Stoops commenting over the footage. OU drove down the field with 4-5 yard runs and 8-13 yard passes several times. Another scary thing to see was that OU’s front 7 was getting a ton of penetration on the Baylor QB all game as well.
The thing I saw in that game that was very encouraging however is that Baylor had a ton of success spreading the field with 4 wide receivers and throwing screen passes. When the OU secondary was isolated in man coverage they could easily be juked for missed tackles and 7-13 yard gains. This bodes well for us, if in fact, we do take that offensive approach to the game.
jtabor - October 10, 2008
others stats since I'm a loser
your post gave me the idea to look up insignificant stats, I’m not sure what they mean, but feel free to add to your repertoire.
Total Offense
TX: 12th
blOwU: 5th
Total Defense
TX: 28th
OU Sucks: 11
Penalties Against
Beloved: 60.4 yds/game
Most Hated: 68.0 yds/game
Penalties For
Burnt Orange: 51.8 yds/game
Criminal & Cremation: 39.2 yds/game
Time of Possession
Horns: 158:59 Total Time = 31:47 minutes/game
cOcksUckers: 154:30 Total Time = 30:54 minutes/game
run Bevo run - October 10, 2008
Not to disparage your post, but I don’t think they mean much at all, except that to this point, these are two extremely evenly-matched teams going up against each other. There’s so little variation between the stats on both sides of the ball and even down to the individual players, there’s no way this can’t be an amazing game, win or lose.
TXinDC - October 10, 2008
Arbitrary Weighing the quarters - bah
Here are the numbers for the starters.
Usually I see the starting Offense be the first ones to go to backups, so Im going to use that to produce my data here. Second team came in based on ESPN at these times and scores.
OU
Chat – 5:44 in the 3rd – 50 points – 2 allowed – 1.27 ppm – 0.05 apm
Cincy – 3:37 in the 4th – 52 points – 20 allowed – 0.92 ppm – 0.35 apm
Wash – 1:39 in the 3rd – 48 points – 7 allowed – 0.84 ppm – 0.12 apm
TCU – 2:32 in the 4th – 35 points – 10 allowed – 0.61 ppm – 0.17 apm
BU – 5:18 in the 4th – 49 points – 17 allowed – 0.90 ppm – 0.31 apm
——————————————————————-
Average – 46.8 ppg – 50.23 mpg – 0.93 ppm – 11.2 apg – 0.22 apm
Texas
FAU – 11:52 in the 4th – 45 points – 10 allowed – 0.94 ppm – 0.21 apm
UTEP – 9:23 in the 4th – 42 points – 13 allowed – 0.83 ppm – 0.25 apm
Rice – 12:38 in the 4th – 38 points – 10 allowed – 0.80 ppm – 0.21 apm
Arkie – 3 :39 in the 3rd – 45 points – 3 allowed – 1.09 ppm – 0.07 apm
CU – 9:21 in the 4th – 38 points – 7 allowed – 0.75 ppm – 0.14 apm
———————————————————————————————————————————————
Average – 41.6 ppg – 47.6 mpg – 0.87 ppm – 9.2 apg – 0.19 apm
Forgetting all other factors, like opponent away/home, etc… it looks like OU has a slightly more effective starting offense (7% more ppm than Texas) while the UT defense is slightly more effective (OU allows 16% more ppm)
BoddickerIsClutch - October 10, 2008
Yeah, I'm not going to lie, I totally phoned this one in.
I didn’t really have time to do the all-out, balls to the wall post that I like to do so I wasn’t going to do one at all, but then I saw that quote and I thought, “I’ve got a column gimmick!” But then I totally didn’t go the extra mile in the analysis. Your way is MUCH better, but they basically give you the same conclusion. OU’s first team has a higher margin of victory than Texas’. Not the greatest omen.
billyzane - October 10, 2008
Yeah
Really there’s not enough data to do anything meaningful.
Really we should through out the best and worse, which brings Texas to 0.86 ppm and 0.19 apm and OU to 0.89 ppm and 0.20 apm
Which brings the margin of victory to 0.67 pm for Texas and 0.69 for OU, which is essentially the same. /shrug
By the end of the year we should have enough data points to make some good conclusions, alas, by then it wont matter.
BoddickerIsClutch - October 10, 2008
Holy crap, grammar. Sorry about that, is it 5pm yet? ^nt_Whills
BoddickerIsClutch - October 10, 2008
What a silly question
Of course it is!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ib8nH4kHjxk
Longhorn in Canada - October 10, 2008
Cool
Interesting that your numbers – in raw form – bear out a certain coaching advantage intuition that we all seem to have. Our defense being slightly better, due to scheme as much as anything, and their offense being slightly ahead – or at least better able to pour on the gas. Since we’re dealing with such a small sample size, I wonder if the relationship will maintain itself after we play (since we apparently would have a small advantage)?
As for BZ’s muse, that quote by Muschamp is an interesting, and probably politically motivated, quote from a coach who is so stat crazy that he has the stat monkeys run a separate set of analyzes from what our DC’s used before (almost sabermetric – were this baseball) – just so he has a more thorough understanding of what happened. That said, ’84 is now probably beyond hope.
learned hand - October 10, 2008
On the quote . . .
Mebbe what Muschamp really means is . . . as much as he is a stat-aholic, he is that much more obsessed with winning.
bravobevo - October 10, 2008
I love your final thought
Super Saiyan Patrick - October 10, 2008
We don't need no stinking stats. We need to kick someone's ass. nt
whills - October 10, 2008
I Am Tired Of Thinking:
It’s Time To Kick Their Ass! I have looked at the stats enough too. I quote former UT All-American, Jeff Ward: Sometimes football is a simple game; just kick the guy’s ass that’s in front of you. Time to show on the field:
DallasDodger - October 10, 2008
omg i was looking everywhere for this pic
to post on my facebook profile pic for the week. i wanted the words too.
clra2 - October 11, 2008
Never Been Stopped Once For A Ticket!
DallasDodger - October 10, 2008
what are the chances we see some trick plays kickoff wise. i.e. last yr we had some plays where we “onside kicked” it when not neccessary, tech was completely suprised, and we recovered
MJY6087 - October 10, 2008
OU literally sucks
bfaut86 - October 10, 2008
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