1. Missouri LT Elvis Fisher vs. Brian Orakpo -- Mike Gundy didn't have Brian Orakpo at his disposal, but that didn't stop him from bringing no fewer than four different blitz looks up the left side of the Tigers' line last Saturday, with great success. Missouri does the Texas Tech wide splits thing, which OSU cleverly attacked a number of ways--on many occasions at the expense of redshirt freshman LT Elvis Fisher. I won't be surprised to see Kindle trailing Orakpo's ass on more than a few occasions Saturday night.
2. Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby vs. Missouri's physical secondary -- I couldn't find any good YouTube clips, but if you watched last week's game in Columbia you saw the wood Missouri's secondary laid on Dez Bryant. Honestly, I was shocked he wasn't concussed and out for the game by the first big hit he took; amazingly, he kept on, and took another 4-5 punishing hits throughout the game. I'm nervous for Quan and Ship.
3. Texas defense vs. poor tackling -- Chase Daniel hits guys and hits them fast; if you're not ready to tackle, Missouri can make big plays. If Texas is wrapping up at first contact consistently, Missouri will have to sustain drives; if not, the 'Horns will be giving them all they need to put a 50 on the scoreboard. It's imperative Texas be active and tackle well within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, forcing Missouri to score on long drives or protect Daniel long enough to complete a deep ball. (Neither are good options for MU.)
4. Greg Davis vs. history -- If the temptation is to rein things in, Davis needs to reject that notion and feel liberated to be creative. Missouri's defense is not a disciplined one. This is a group you can use one group of plays to set up a monster play for 6. I've watched the OSU game three times now, and Mike Gundy did that masterfully. Play action and even a well-placed trick play should leave a Longhorn or three wide open Saturday night.
5. Texas vs. attention/expectations -- I'm with Trips Right here... Scary.
Hook 'em. Beat Mizzou.
0 recs | 32 comments
Off number 1...
I think this is where the game will be decided. O-Sack-po against a RS Freshman. ITs gonna be like standing in line in front of Mangino at the Golden Corral…you’re gonna get mowed over. Regardless if Daniel stands 8 yards behind the LOS…he’s still gonna run. History will repeat itself as he will throw too many off balance passes. INT City baby!
kriess - October 17, 2008
Honestly...
One of the best weapons Texas has in this game is McCoy’s ability to create something out of nothing. The Missouri pass defense has been at least somewhat average when quarterbacks have been kept inside the pocket and forced to play within the system. It seems like Missouri gets itself in the most trouble defensively when plays are broken, quarterbacks scramble free, and DBs are chasing receivers all over the field. That isn’t exactly a great formula with a guy like Colt McCoy in the backfield.
RPT - October 17, 2008
I really feel sorry for Elvis Fisher. Orakpo should take the sack lead by the end of the night. I really like the idea of tailing him with Kindle. Beating Mizzou is going to be tough, but it’ll be a whole lot easier if they can cut off Daniel’s escape to that side of the pocket and force him to throw early.
burntorangehorn - October 17, 2008
Orakpo
If they leave that poor guy on an island, Orakpo will have a big night. I’m interested to see what kind of moves Orakpo will use to attack Missouri’s wide splits. I think Houston and Miller can really do damage if they drive the middle of Mizzou’s line back in Daniel’s face. He’s short so he’ll have a difficult time seeing and will be forced to roll out, where he’s not necessarily at his strengths.
TheElusiveShadow - October 17, 2008
Here’s the gameplan, IMO:
1. Orakpo lines up outside Fisher, forcing Fisher out on single protection unless Chase Coffman is there. If it’s one-on-one, Orakpo alone pushes Fisher back to the point that the escape to that side is cut. If Coffman’s there, great, no Coffman out on a route. Either way it’s a matchup win.
2. Miller and Houston knock the interior line into the Mizzou backfield. Whether or not they actually break through the line isn’t all that important, although it’d certainly help make sure Daniel doesn’t make hay off his quick hits.
3. Daniel, with no escape to Orakpo’s side and two tackles threatening from the middle, is forced to escape to the other side, with Melton or Fast Eddie holding up the end.
I think it’s really key that they keep an eye out for between-the-tackles scrambles by Daniel. Spreading the line to take advantage of the natural talent advantage is desirable, but does leave the team vulnerable to such scrambles.
Another note on Coffman: if he lines up off Orakpo, there needs to be zone coverage or even double-man. If he lines up off Melton, great—Muckelroy takes him in man.
burntorangehorn - October 17, 2008
Biggest difference between Chase and Colt
Chase is shrinking
While Colt is growing
BoddickerIsClutch - October 17, 2008
I'd like to know what all those recruitment weight/speed numbers are now for both of them
TXinDC - October 17, 2008
Colt looks like a kid in the first
Amazing what a few years does.
I’m always amused by a lot of scouting statistics. Players always seem a little bit taller, bigger, and faster.
TheElusiveShadow - October 17, 2008
actually looks like chase is growing..horizontally though...nt whills
vy til i die - October 17, 2008
Gravity?
Since he has more mass, gravity is having a larger effect on him and is pulling him closer to the ground.
Margaritaking - October 17, 2008
Orakpo way.....
…..over-ran the pocket on numerous occasions last Saturday. Properly coached, Bradford would have stepped up and to the left so as to allow Loadholt to continue to push him even farther past the pocket. Chase Daniel is not a leadboot QB. If the DEs don’t maintain contain, he’ll easily make lots of yards with his feet.
HornChamps - October 17, 2008
Missouri has much more pressure than we do.
2Bearnest - October 17, 2008
They are trying to break a 112 year losing streak in Austin. nt&whills ...together forever
BoddickerIsClutch - October 17, 2008
pressure?
What kind of pressure are you talking about? Pressure to get to the QB? Not even close. Pressure to win? Thats closer but we’re number one…with all the hoopla from ESPN “effing wonderful”, and the fact that we’re Texas and we have 100,000 fans for a night game….we have more pressure.
kriess - October 17, 2008
Missou is done for if they lose, Texas is not
Id say there’s more pressure on Missou. Its there shot to reassert themselves as a national contender, else they are will just be a team that has lost to the only people they have played with winning records this season.
There’s less to prove if you are a team that has already beat a #1 team.
BoddickerIsClutch - October 17, 2008
Maybe, but there’s more to pressure than having more or less to prove. Living up to the #1 ranking is about as high as the pressure gets.
burntorangehorn - October 17, 2008
True, but the Horns have been highly ranked much of the time recently.
Even when we were under the radar, we were top 10 and eventually #5. This is common in this decade. We’ve spent a season at #2 and then earned #1. So rankings are a natural. It’s Mizzou that would be the interloper at the high ranking level and the one to feel the pressure. We’re at home on a great Saturday night with the wind at our back. The challenger has to bring it – or else.
whills - October 17, 2008
Also and
Missouri knows the Horns beat the best team in the country last week not at home, whereas they lost at home to a team most would have said before their game wasn’t as good as them.
If any one has doubts it should be Missouri, because on top of that they have to beat the best team in the country on the road.
Anyone who saw OU vs UT, (like Missouri) saw UT get behind a team everybody in the country says was better and come back 3 times from being behind against a team who had blown out every team it played this year. By the second half UT beat down OU till it looked like a very different team than the one that started the game on both sides of the ball and special teams.
It wasn’t just one lucky play or or a bad call in the horns favor that won them the game, they controlled OU stopped their offense and couldn’t be stopped by their defense. Missouri has to think is it better than OU in any part of their game?
Xerxes - October 17, 2008
yeah i guess ur right Boddick...
I guess Im just halfway worried about the distractions from the Media this week…I keep telling myself that Muschamp wont let that happen. I think our O line play will dictate alot. If we can keep Chase and Co. on the sidelines for an extended period of time…we dont have to worry about him re-asserting himself as a Heisman contender and pulling his troops through.
And by O-line play I mean…allowing for the running game to develop to slow down the game…
kriess - October 17, 2008
Dont think Im not a bit nervous too
Im not saying theres no pressure on us either, but Missouri dropped one in their own house, one that they werent expecting, and back to back losses for them would plummet their stock.
I think this is a pivotal game for us, and I hope we come out with the same fire and grit that we did against OU. If we do, then I like our chances to run the table. If we dont have focus, then this team could have trouble going the distance. Either way, Im fired up and cant wait to watch more Texas football.
BoddickerIsClutch - October 17, 2008
from rivals.com
THANK YOU rivals. Everyone says the pass defense is our weakness. Finally I have found a way to explain to people who point to our pass defense allowing so many yards. And the thing about it is it’s true. Rivals says we are better than Mizzou in every aspect of the game except maybe special teams, which I pretty much agree with, yet so many people are predicting we lose. We’re going to be focused this week, no let down for sure.
clra2 - October 17, 2008
A reason - yes, the only reason - no
Based on rivals analysis you’d never expect a team to be in the top 10 in both running and passing defense. USC is top 10 in both.
Based on rivals analysis you’d think that the only reason A&M is near the bottom in rush defense (112th) is because it’s so difficult to pass on their defense (13th). Chicken or the egg?
Our pass defense is still a huge work in progress. It’s not as bad as it looks from a pure yards standpoint (110th in the country), but it is still a legitimate weakness. We allowed five touchdowns through the air against the only really good offense we played this year.
Horncasting - October 17, 2008
ok now that I reread my comment
it looks like I’m saying the pass defense is not our weakness. I guess I should’ve reworded it. I meant to say yes it probably is our biggest weakness but that stats are skewed. The numbers make our defense look a lot worse than they really are.
clra2 - October 17, 2008
To be fair
USC is playing in the weak Pac-10. Granted, we’re only two games into our Big 12 schedule, but there’s probably not going to be too many top ranked pass defenses in the Big 12 considering who they have to play. Furthermore, while our non-conference schedule was weak, it did feature some decent quarterbacks.
TheElusiveShadow - October 17, 2008
yep...
Im stoked as hell! I got this weekend off for the first time and Im thinking about driving out to Austin from Houston and tailgate it up a bit tomorrow. I’d give anything to find some tix….We need more rowdy ppl like me in the stands on a night like tomorrow’s!
kriess - October 17, 2008
key to slowing down Chase is not what you think
If Muschamp’s game plan is to put pressure on Chase, it will be a mistake — and Will is smarter than that. There are two kinds of sacks in football: the ones that happen when you are trying to get them, and the ones that happen when you don’t. To win, we’ll need the latter, and not the former.
to put it simply, Missouri’s offense is set up to punish the teams that pass rush without discipline and blitz linebackers repeatedly. Chase sets up at least 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, and the o-line splits so wide Javorskie Lane could roll through them on his way to KFC. To the less intelligent DCs out there, this screams ‘pressure’ but to a guy like Muschamp this screams ‘patience’. Furthermore, like Colt, Chase is oftentimes at his best turning busted plays into big gains by using his feet or his arm, or sometimes both. Read: Missouri lays the trap and invites you to step right now.
Instead the recipe for success is threefold – pressuring the WRs, playing under/over with Coffman, and keeping Chase in the pocket until it collapses.
Pressuring the WRs means bumping them hard at the line, staying on them tight and making tackles. Delivering a big hit or two over the middle will go a long way too. In the meantime, Muckelroy will be spending his time staying between Chase and Coffman while he gets help from a safety over the top. Lastly, Kindle and Lewis will be responsible to keep Chase in the pocket, and pushing him forward into Rak, Houston, and Miller.
The key is to make Mizzou work to keep the ball moving through the air. Using this approach successfully means that Chase will have to throw the ball over 50 times, and compete 75% of them to win. My money is on us wearing down MU’s o-line with 4 rushers and the defense knocking guys out of their routes and wrapping up receivers. Mizzou’s D can’t stop us from scoring 38 points, which is how much we’ll need to win.
BMG - October 17, 2008
I think a steady rotation of defensive linemen could be very useful against a team that has probably the weakest offensive line relative to overall offensive talent. One way or the other, Fisher is a dead man.
burntorangehorn - October 17, 2008
great analysis
I definitely think that Orakpo will be a huge factor one way or the other tomorrow. But I don’t think he will be one-on-one very often. MU doesn’t have the O-line that Oklahoma has, but it knows it. I think a large part of Orakpo’s dominance of OU’s line was Stoops’ hubris and insisting on keep his LT on an island. I expect that MU’s o-line blocking scheme this week will look a lot different now that its biggest weakness has been exposed. If (and this is a big if) Orakpo IS neutralized, then it’s up to the other DE to take advantage of the opportunity.
On the physical secondary: MU’s pass defense gets a really bad rap, but the one thing they are absolutely EXCELLENT at is taking away the opponent’s number one option. Example: Dez Bryant had 47 yards last week. If you look over the past 2+ seasons, MU has always held the opponent’s number one receiver below his season average for yards AND catches. The upside for Texas? MU can’t usually stop a team that has two effective receivers. See Illinois 2008, OU 2007.
I think a Wild Card that you didn’t mention (at least specifically) is Missouri S William Moore. Moore is an all-american with first-round talent, and was hobbled the first part of the season. He is just now getting healthy, and is a great ball-hawk when he’s healthy. He’s also the hardest hitter on the aforementioned hard-hitting secondary. If you hear Moore’s name called a lot on Saturday, it will be a very bad thing for Texas.
Here’s to an injury-free game, and go Mizzou!
BigMOman - October 17, 2008
I completely agree
Im just hoping its more like…“Willie Moore missed his tackle….and William Moore gets flagged with the pass interference….and William Moore gets layed out by Quan Cosby” Nothing against the guy. I just want his name called for the right reasons…lol
kriess - October 17, 2008
Moore had a ton of hype in the preseason
and has largely failed to live up to it. As a Mizzou fan, I’m hoping that it’s just because he was hobbled. I guess we’ll find out. I think the more likely flag on him would be “Personal Foul, Late Hit”. That’s one thing that as a fan I don’t like about our secondary: they LOVE to hit, but sometimes it’s after the play is dead. If I were Texas, I would be wary of that, and also try to play it up for the Refs.
BigMOman - October 17, 2008
Double teaming Orakpo
Just curious how you think MU would double Orakpa. With the Guard, TE, keep a RB back to block?
Horncasting - October 17, 2008
I don't think they can regularly double Rak
Without costing themselves an offensive weapon or allowing Lamar Houston and Roy the opportunity to drink Chase Daniel’s milkshake. Either way is a net win for us.
learned hand - October 17, 2008
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