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A Gathering Storm

 In reviewing the Longhorns' non-conference performance I first mentioned something I have since found myself bringing up with increasing frequency:

If the 'Horns were to win in Boulder and then upset Oklahoma in Dallas a week later, it would be time to start talking about Texas as more than an excellent team more likely to make the big splash in '09 than '08. Not that OU isn't the Big One every year, but this is a Texas team that's still got a lot of room to grow and improve and which should be a tougher out each successive week, so clearing the first hurdle would be enormous.

As I reflect on tonight's blowout victory over Missouri, it occurs to me that the preceding was in a way an extension of something I wrote in mid-August under the title "The Will Muschamp Factor":

I mentioned this morning that I'm more excited about this team and season than I anticipated being as recently as the beginning of the summer. It was then that I pitched you my narrative for 2008, arguing that Texas' stars seemed to be aligning for a title run next year.

I still think that's true for all the same reasons, and yet as I sit here 11 days from kickoff, I'm more than just feeling good about this year as a building block for the '09 run; I've steadily come around to the idea that Texas is going to be real good, real fast this year, as well.

I've been a guest on a dozen radio shows the past month, which has given me the opportunity to talk through the expectations game with various program hosts, each of whom inevitably asks about Texas' perception as the third or fourth team in the Big 12 this season. Interestingly, whereas I've felt compelled to stick by my argument that the top prize(s) aren't in the cards for Texas this year, I've more and more found myself arguing that it would be a mistake to underestimate this year's squad.

Though that post specifically deals with the effect I was projecting Will Muschamp to have on the 2008 squad, the underlying premise was the same: Texas approached and entered this season riding a wave of momentum (catalyzed by the loss to A&M), the strength of which seemed clearly leading towards an exciting and fulfilling end point. The only question, then, was not if Texas would be a great football team... but when?

Early in the summer I guessed it would be 2009... By the end of fall workouts I was saying we'd be a team no one wanted to play in a 2008 bowl... And by the time Texas impressively waxed its four non-con opponents, I found myself articulating a timetable far in advance of anything I had previously imagined possible.

Why lay all this out? Because without this context one cannot possibly appreciate everything we saw on Saturday night at DKR, nor the underlying reason beyond "7-0, duh" that Texas is a True Contender for the national title. Explanations after the jump:

Star-divide

Winning both trench wars. We expected Texas' defensive line to be a dominant force throughout 2008, but entering the season the offensive line looked like a moderate team strength which probably wouldn't gel/peak until much later. But the offensive line's performance against Missouri was absolutely phenomenal, defined by cohesion, crisp execution, and the surgical precision of a skilled practitioner. This line not only didn't exist six weeks ago, it has developed from good (to start the season) to damn impressive (against Missouri)... and best of all (the theme returns) we're just getting going.

Chris Ogbonnaya: problem solver. My uber-love for Chris Ogbonnaya goes way back, but even I conceded after 2007 that C.O. appeared to have reached his ceiling as a pure role player. And though for a while this season he was just that, the slimmer, trimmer, quicker version of Ogbonnaya is not only back, but has opportunistically filled a vacuum--both by showcasing his raw ability and taking advantage of increased reps to improve as a decisive runner and playmaker. Most deliciously, though no one quite planned it out, the emergence of Ogbonnaya is in many ways ideal because he's so strong as a pass-catcher and pass-blocker. Again, Texas is harder to beat since this development than they were when the tailback situation was a lingering "Who knows?"

Collins, Williams? No... Davis. The theme continues with the emergence of Brandon Collins and Malcolm Williams, both of whom were non-factors through Texas' first five games. But against Oklahoma we saw Greg Davis add Collins to Colt's underneath mix and--Hallelujah--we also saw Malcolm Williams deployed... down the field! Though Williams wasn't able to secure the jump ball Colt lofted his way in Dallas, tonight the effort paid off, as the big fella swallowed a 32-yard toss that highlighted his exceptional athleticism. And here, again, is why Texas may be the most dangerous football team in the country: Not only have they won their first seven games in impressive fashion, but they're steadily adding to their ability as they go. So much so that it's hard to imagine this offense getting outgunned by anybody if they can get through the next two weeks. By January, what was once a three-man offense--operating behind a good-not-great line--could be (should be) a well-rounded, multi-dimensional attack force. We're not only starting to see it come together, but it's happened without requiring a loss to Oklahoma to get underway.

Two sides to this coin. If I've seemed overly focused on the offense in this review that's because the offensive side of the ball was my fundamental concern about this team's ceiling--in 2008 and '09. And if offensive developments are in large part serving as the foundation for my heightened expectations, I should note that the defense is--with its week-to-week improvement--following the course I and others expected. With that said, lest I understate the importance of the defense in the big theme at hand, consider the following points:

  1. We talked a lot this summer about how Muschamp's ability to successfully contain the spread would depend in large part on how well the defensive line could get pressure without blitz help from LBs and DBs. "So far, so good" would be an understatement: Orakpo has been unblockable, Miller-Houston have been healthy and massively disruptive, Melton has been one of the best turnaround stories I can think of, and...
  2. Sergio Kindle has proven himself the perfect tactical missile for Muschamp to deploy in support of the D-Line. Whether he's lining him up on the line in the Buck Package or using him in collateral support, the pressure Texas is putting on opposing quarterbacks is amazing and, best yet, getting better by the week.
  3. For the first time in forever, the linebacker unit is a team strength.
  4. Chykie Brown, Earl Thomas, and Blake Gideon have not only been increasingly excellent themselves, but they've reinforced to their age-mates what it will/does take to be a player for this defense. You can literally see the various members of the secondary working at doing what they gotta do to stay on the field. Tackling is improving. Cohesion is increasingly apparent. Being physical is a priority. Bottom line: the DB cupboard was obviously well-stocked in talent, but we're just starting to see the set on full display.

Tying it all together... I only went through that long introduction to hammer home the idea that Texas' Title Chances have as much to do with their room to improve as actually finding themselves 7-0. Though I had the strongest of doubts that Texas could get to this point, now that we're here: All the things I have said about this team's growth curve, in conjunction with some key surprise developments on offense, inexorably lead to the conclusion that Texas football has begun approaching a peak in the cycle well ahead of schedule. And most promising of all, its doing so not only allows it to be contenders by virtue of being 7-0, but because the best is still ahead.

That is what is so exciting about Texas football. The. best. is. yet. to. come.

This meta analysis is not a substitute for the usual Postgame React, which will run on Sunday. 

0 recs  |  68 comments

Comments

the more i watch the team, the more i think they can do no wrong. and that’s what i’m afraid of, is they’ll think that as well. i think this year the coaches must be credited as much if not more than any player. greg davis for play calling outside of his box, for utilizing players outside of where we usually see them (collins on the under routes, shipley lining up to replace irby) and utilizing them effectively. will muschamp almost doesn’t need to be mentioned. applewhite for doing his thing, for calling out the fan base to be loud and proud, and just bringing something new to the team. his running backs aren’t fumbling and that is making a world of difference. and above all, mack brown for leading this ship, bringing the coaches together, and for, so far, making all the right calls.

And still the naysayers circle

Because we’re not USC, ESPN just seems hellbent to find chinks in the armour. Rather than crowning us as national championship favorites, now Mark Schlabach has resorted to questioning the strength of the Big XII itself.

Yet, we still don’t know if the Longhorns are the best team in college football.

And we still might not know two weeks from now — after Texas has hosted No. 8 Oklahoma State and played at No. 7 Texas Tech.

Even during what is being called the most difficult stretch in Texas football history — the Longhorns have never played four ranked opponents in a row — it won’t face a team as menacing as it would face in the Jan. 8 BCS Championship Game in south Florida.

Think it would be that easy against Southern California? Or Alabama? Florida? Georgia? How about defending national champion LSU?

Probably not.

Schlabach

Homer you may be, PB, but your analysis is more reasoned, researched and fact-based than most of the fluff ESPN publishes these days – or indeed most of the fluff being spouted from anchor desks and College Gameday sets. More please.

don't forget,his a DAWG, so like everyone else at ESPN, objectivity is out!!
Que the Crying Boy

grasping at straws. Texas leads both Alabama and Georgia in run defense by a good margin 48 ypg to 60 ypg and 61 ypg, but that must be because the big XII has such bad running teams compared to the super hero running backs in the SEC. The defenses in the Big XII have to be bad to let the offenses get so many yards or score so many points. Georgia and Alabama are only 66th and 68th in pass defense in a crappy passing conference. In total defense Texas gives up 50 yards more a game than Alabama on defense but Texas out gains Alabama 484 to 371 on offense.

A remarkable stat
QB ratings
SEC
17th Tebow

BIG XII
2nd Bradford
3rd Zac Robinson
4th McCoy
5th Daniels
8th Harrell
12th Joe Ganz
14th Chase Clement
15th Todd Reesing

Is it bad defense or are 3/4s of the Big XII QBs just more talented than the best of the SEC.

Chase Clement...like the RICE QB?..nt whills
lol

I guess it is intramurals after all.

It's amazing how many people want to add a team to the big 12.
Good for us

Let ‘em talk down about us. It’ll help keep this team focused and hungry. Ultimately no matter what ESPN or anyone else says, we win out and we go to the big game.

OSU smack

coming already:

"We’re shooting for a ‘W’ each and every week," Dez Bryant said. "If we continue to play the way we’re playing, then we can get through anybody."

Dose of herbal enlargement?

Even Gundy40man is getting caught up in the self-aggrandizement:

http://newsok.com/gundys-mantra-take-it-one-game-at-a-time/article/3313099

…gotcha.

That feeling inside

Well said PB. I really enjoy your insight. I am a lifetime Horn fan stuck in the middle of LSU country. As much as I loath for Texas success, I can’t help but think of all the times they have broken my heart over the years. But I must say, something seems to be different about this team. Obviously Mack has accumulated the talent over the years, but the Muschamp/Applewhite experiment along with the embattled Greg Davis and Duane Akina seems to be a great combination of new/old blood. I agree with you, the best is yet to come for this team. It’s going to be a great ride! Hook ’em!

Long....

you long for Texas success. Loath is what you do to the Sooners and Aggies.

yah, I caught that too ...

but it was a gorgeous late evening in Austin, and the beer was surely flowing freely well into the weesmall hours, so I figured to let a little grammatical slip go – just this once!

Muschamp factor

Where I was wrong, so very wrong, was thinking that Muschamp would need another year to put together his defense. I could not imagine that among the collection of laggards he inherited last year (even allowing for the misuse of its best players) plus a crop of frosh recruited by Akina, that he would find the parts he needed for a championship defense. Surely, I thought, he would need to bring in his own kind of guys. Surely it would take time to teach them his ways. But no, this defense clicked from the start and has only gotten better. The man is a genius.

wiggle room

I really wish the sportcasters would shut the hell up about the Heisman race and just enjoy the wild ride this team is producing. Do I think Colt is one of the best QBs in the nation? Without a doubt. But he can thank his ever-improving offensive linesmen for giving him the wiggle room to put up some of those numbers and true to his nature, he does thank them and that galactic defensive squad, every chance he gets.

Something to Focus on...

Large TE’s are absolutely destroying our defense these past 2 games.

Are we still winning games? Absolutely. But adjustments need to be made, and I have faith that BOOM-MF will take care of it.

Yeah, but

We just played the top two TEs in the nation.

OSU's Pettigrew

is dangerous and could be a top-five tight end.

A preseason look at top TEs

prospects listed Gresham-Pettigrew-Coffman as 1-2-4 for the coming draft (Wisconsin TE was No. 3). . . . This from walterfootball.com

Coffman is the best I've seen
Take this into account. Coffman excelled on his outstainding ability in the open field.

But the Horns handled Maclin. Sometimes you must corral the key threat, the one that can break your back consistently. In Mizzou’s case, this was Maclin.

We should not forget how dangerous these teams are: great attacks with many weapons and one team can’t neutralize them all with straight-up D. We stopped the running game and Maclin deep. (And I realize this may have differed somewhat on particular situational plays.)

If we’d controlled Coffman instead of Maclin, I can see a couple of more TDs going up on the board and maybe even the game in jeopardy because those possible TDs would have broken down the defense to some degree.

We’ll face these kinds of decisions the next two weeks.

Great point

If we can neutralize OSU’s running game and Dez Bryant (who I personally think is the biggest freak of an athlete we’ll play this year) while giving up the short stuff to their TE’s, etc. we’ll be in good shape again this week.

Robinson is better at keeping drives alive with this feet than Daniel, which worries me.

You know, GD said they studied the OSU-MU game film a lot

in coming up with the game plan for Mizzou, and I suspect the defense shared in that preparation. So, unlike many games, the Horn’s coaches have had a greater familiarity with what OSU has done vs. MU and now Baylor this weekend.

I suspect Muschamp will certainly take that into account. OSU had some weapons and you can’t cover them all. If we leave it up to Gideon, Kindle and Muck, they might let him run for a while for a good shot.

I agree

But I still have my concerns that a team like OSU will open the game taking full advantage of our problems with a good TE, and then go for the deep burns once the adjustments have been made on defense.

However, with that said, I am extremely appreciative of how much better this team is tackling overall. That is what has prevented most of the TE’s catches from becoming TDs.

The stats are just amazing

Colt this season: 25 total touchdowns to 37 incompletions.

That is through 7 games, 2 against Top 11 teams.

Unreal.

Gameday will not be in Austin again

Not surprisingly, Gameday will be at the Penn State v. OSU game.

www.collegegameday.com

Did you guys notice that

Mizzou’s LDE was in Colt’s face most of the time, I mean thank god he was getting rid of the ball quickly, but Ulatowski was getting beat on almost every passing play…but other than that I think OL played GREAT

Colt has taken 10 sacks this year. That has to be a concern at this point.
True

But I know for certain that 1 of those against Mizzou was because Obi-1 completely whiffed on the blitzer. Had this been a bull fight, it would have been a beautiful move.

This year, next year

Whether we are able to win out this season or not, what does seem clear is that our team next year is likely to be as good if not better than our team this year. This provided Colt can resist the urge to go pro early, but my bet would be that he can.

Why have we been so much better than expected this year? Some possible factors:

1. Colt’s time in the off-season weight room has allowed him to stay healthy this year when in the past he has gotten banged up. This, in addition to running a simpler offense geared to him rather than being a hang-over from VY, has allowed him to play much better than we expected.

2. Chris O has now distinguished himself from the herd in the backfield to be a clear-cut starter, something that was hard to predict.

3. The production of our offensive stars makes life easier for the others – like Williams who snagged a TD pass last night. When eyes are on Colt, Chris, Jordan, and Quan, it allows others to sneak in some great plays as well, awesome opportunity for young talent.

4. The young secondary is not as porous as expected. They have been tested by OU and Mizzou now — and have held up nicely. There have been a few gaffes along the way, but there has not been a pattern of stupid mistakes, as many of us feared in the preseason.

5. The coaches. This could contribute to the prior four in ways both small and large. How much of this is great coaching? How much talented players. A tough question to answer, but I hope the coaches are a big factor, as coaches generally last longer than players, and therefore the benefits of this factor would affect us for many years to come. It seems likely that like Gene C, Muschamp will be highly recruited, but others like Major will stay for awhile, and besides if they leave, Mack has shown that he can recruit great coaches.

Some I missed? Which of these gets your vote?

P.S. it also doesn’t hurt that Orakpo and Miller are on fire.

Agree with all of them

Regarding Colt – I wonder if the injury from 2006 didn’t have a lingering effect last year. His health, plus the sooner than expected great line play and extremely intelligent WR’s that catch everything are the major factors in his improvement this year.

Regarding Chris O. – seriously what is this dude’s football IQ? All he does is get himself in great position time and time again to help this team. Picking up blitzing LB’s? Check. Producing in the zone read? Check. Safety valve outlet for Colt when no one is open or the DL pressure gets there? Check. RAC skills on screens/shovel passes? Check.

You could make the same comments about the football IQ’s of Shipley and Cosby. Just on another plane mentally from 99% of college football players.

Perfect? well...mostly

In partial response to Displaced Longhorn, I think we’ve been perfect…mostly. I haven’t read the analysis of the OU game, but the first half showed our offensive imperfections. We went into halftime very close due to a VERY complete team that kept things together. My point is this: though we kept from extremely serious mistakes offensively, we had to settle for less than 6 (or a punt) too many times in the first half.
What changes were made for the second half? Were there many, or was it just a charged offense that came out with fresh energy?
Anyway, perfect, other than the offensive first half of the OU game, in which the team stepped up huge.

Short passing attack

The horns went to a short passing attack in the second half against OU. Every pass (except for 1 pass) was 10 yards or less (including yards run after completion). The only pass in the second half that was longer than 10 yards was 12 yards in the air plus 25 yards of running after the catch. The UT short passing attack rendered the OU blitz ineffective (enormously important). UT used the short pass to relentlessly attack the OU substitute middle LB in the second half.

The horns now short pass to set up the run and the longer passes. The horns now move the chains by using the short pass.

And dominate TOP because of that.

We are third in the nation in time of possession.

Unfortunately, OkState is fourth.

Whoever can hold onto the ball longest will win on Saturday.

Note: Chiles hit Buckner for 51. nt
Kafka was talking about the OU game...
I blanked on that. Thanks, your right. nt
TicketReserve.com

How is it Bama fans have already bid up their minimum bid to $300 and First Dibz on Longhorns in the Champ game haven’t sold out their initial allotment of $82? I went to the Vince Rose Bowl champ game from this site and I spent $600 for “the right” to get a face value ticket in the endzone. Barry Switzer just predicted we’re going to go undefeated and play an SEC team.

People – buy your right to a Champ game ticket now – you wait, you pay more. Not the best seats but you will be in the stadium.

reasons for greatness

When I watch the Horns and think about the last two years, and in fact back to 2000, what stands out to me that would explain why the team is so good are three things.

(1) This is a SMART team. It feels like watching a pro team that has executed the same plays for years. As Missouri found out last night, and OU last week, you blitz this team at your peril. Cosby, Shipley, McCoy, Ogbonnaya, Chris Hall, and Ulatoski are all football smart, and it is the collection of their recognition that has prevented, for the most part, negative or zero-yard plays. Same thing on defense, where Rak, Muckelroy, and Gideon are increasingly recognizing what’s coming on almost every play. The football IQ is beginning to rub off on Collins and Kirkendoll as well, and we saw how paying a lot of attention to Shipley and Cosby freed up Collins in a big way. Earl Thomas is starting to play smarter as well. I think that is the truly scary thing about this team’s future – one of the smartest, if not the smartest, teams in the country is only going to get smarter as the freshmen and sophomores grow up.

(2) This is a team with GREAT LEADERSHIP. With all due genuflection to the leadership of VY, this team is has class leadership at almost every position group that is translating the coaches’ instructions into play on the field. I can’t remember a Horns team that had that kind of multiple leadership on the field. Somehow you just know the Horns aren’t going to take a game off.

(3) The coaching climate seems completely different than in past years. I guess one could say that even the coaches are SMARTER. Mack has clearly taken the shackles off GD, Major has clearly influenced the diversity of formations the team is comfortable running, and Muschamp has implemented a simple but effective defense that applies frequent pressure without exposing the DB’s on every play. I marvel that the defense has given up almost no deep post, fly, or flag patterns in 7 games. I marvel that so many young players are tackling so well, and with a physical authority.

In the depths of public moaning after the A&M loss last , somewhere Mack Brown let go of his patricial attitude towards Texas football and realized that every single player and coach was on trial every day and that every player and coach had to become excellent for Texas football to succeed to the standards set for them by fans and donors. You can see that attitude in the eyes of the players.

I am reminded of my impression of the 2001-2003 New Engalnd Patriots – a team that said, hey we may not have the most freakish athletes at every position, but we are striving for excellence on every play in every practice in every game, for the whole season. I recall the look on Colt McCoy’s face in the early fourth quarter of this year’s UTEP game, after the reminiscently frustrating disappearance of the offense in the third quarter. Despite continuing to lead 27-13, he looked like the team had just lost because it wasn’t to the Horns’ standard. That is almost a complete reversal of the attitude after the similar Central Florida game from 2007, when all the Horns kept whining about the “road” and how hyped-up the UCF team was, and how good the UCF RB was, etc. Now, things are only measured to “the Standard” and with the ascension to the #1 ranking, clearly that standard has been set extremely high.

I recall the look on Colt McCoy’s face in the early fourth quarter of this year’s UTEP game, after the reminiscently frustrating disappearance of the offense in the third quarter. Despite continuing to lead 27-13, he looked like the team had just lost because it wasn’t to the Horns’ standard.

this

it's the lines

a good O line makes the QB and Running backs look good. Texas does not have top rate talent at running back but they seem to be getting better? it’s the O-line that’s getting better. They blew some huge holes open even Mad Dog could have run for 10.

The D-line is making some good line backers look better and average secondary look good. By mid 2nd quarter the Missouri O-line bunched up and shortened their splits by a foot to keep the defense from slicing through the gaps.

O-line

There were several times during the game, especially the TD pass to Williams whre Colt seemed to have 5 to 6 seconds of safety to survey the field and identify the target.

On that play he actually got happy feet

Even though there was no one around him. One of the few times we’ve seen it in the last 4-5 games, which underscores another point of why he’s been so good this year.

Recruits

I’ll be very interested to see how all this plays out with our recruiting. If i’m right, we are still in the running for 3 of the most highly rated kids in the 2009 class. Devan Kennard, McFarland, and Dre Kirkpatrick all are uncommitted and have texas on their list. Hopefully the amount of attention texas is getting will help land 1 or 2 of them! Do we have enough scholarships left to sign all three? I’m not sure how that works.

There are always scholarships available for the likes of McFarland and Kennard.

I though McFarland was lost to us when he decided to hold off on his decision until NSD. His final 3 are Texas, OU and LSU. Given the way he was cheering for Texas at the RRS, I think the Horns might be back in it. Texas is the perfect situation for him – Miller is graduating and our depth at DT is not massive. He could well see action as a true Freshman.

Not so for Kennard, with our depth at DE. But given how ridiculously bad the Pac10 is this season, Texas may very well look like a better long-term career move.

Don’t know anything about Kirkpatrick though, sorry.

Don’t forget Craig Loston. UT is probably #2 on his list, now that he’s de-committed from Clemson, with LSU the likely #1.

Don't forget Applewhite

I don’t think that Muschamp’s contributions to this team’s transformation can be underestimated. And the same goes for Applewhite.

As the season has progressed, we’ve seen dramatic improvement in the running game, even as the opponents have grown more difficult. Last year, how many times did we hold our collective breath when JC went down hard, dreading the next fumble? Now, that problem seems to be a thing of the past.

Ogbannaya has developed better field vision. Texas has an effective jumbo package and short yardage back for the first time in a loooooong time. It’s just hitting on all cylinders.

Just like many other units on this team, the RBs/TBs are not the most talented. But for once, the coaches are getting the most out of them.

Agree, Eddie. Oggy is not just more confident, his running skills are better.

As a group, the whole bunch has shown improvement and I suspect will do so throughout the season.

agree wholeheartedly

Also, importantly, Major seems to have transformed GD’s playcalling. My favorite so far was the play-action pass to Miller on first-and-goal from the OU 1-yard line. It didn’t work, but I’ve been clamoring for that play for YEARS. Couldn’t be happier with the new Coordinators on both sides of the ball. This team is playing with an attitude. Hook ’em!

i could've sworn..

we ran that play in last year’s bowl to Lokey

intagibles

dont forget that many senior leaders on this team have a NC in their locker, and those experiences gained all those years ago will help for the stretch run.

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