With each passing week in this crazy season comes more and more email to my inbox. As always, I try to respond to everyone's email individually or on the site. I will never use anyone's full name unless you explicitly authorize me to.
I read your post on all the various scenarios. Thanks for putting that together. I personally don't think we're gonna get to Miami, but what do you think might the most likely "dream scenario" if Miami doesn't happen?
--Kendall R.
If Penn State or Tech win out, Miami's not happening, you're right. If either team loses, it'll get interesting. But let's take Miami out of the equation for a moment and consider my other Dream Scenario, which I didn't mention in that post, but talked about briefly during Sunday night's podcast.
Assume the following:
In this scenario, Texas Tech wins the Big 12 South, and either they or the Big 12 North winner get the auto-bid to the Fiesta Bowl. National Title Game is Penn State vs Bama/Florida. And now we move to Texas' bowl game.
Would the Longhorns be BCS bound? Absolutely. Most likely destination? Either the Sugar Bowl or Rose Bowl, who have first dibs on replacing their tie-in teams lost to the national title game. I think it's more likely than not that in this scenario the Sugar Bowl would take the Bama-UF runner-up to preserve the SEC tie-in, with the Rose Bowl snagging Texas. A Trojans-Longhorns rematch in the Rose Bowl? Yes, please.
Outside the chance to play for a conference or national title, could Texas fans ask for anything more? The Rose Bowl is a perfect January destination, we'd likely face an 11-1 USC team, and--get this--the stage would be set for 2009, which will also conclude in Pasadena, as it'll the Rose Bowl's turn to host the national title.
Deja vu?
(Final note: this scenario also works if Tech wins out, but loses Big 12 Title Game. Pretty much any scenario where Penn State plays in Miami and Texas finishes 11-1 but short of Kansas City is likely to lead to a trip to the Rose Bowl.)
0 recs | 51 comments
Is there any way...
A 1 loss Texas jumps over undefeated Penn State?
goingforthecorner - November 3, 2008
Unlikely
But possible. Our computer average is outstanding, and if we get to Kansas City and beat Missouri again, while Alabama runs the table in the SEC, it’s possible Texas could jump PSU, because the Nittany Lions wouldn’t have a huge edge in the human polls. If, however, Penn State is the lone undefeated, they’ll receive too many first place votes for Texas or anyone else to jump them because of the computers.
Peter Bean - November 3, 2008
what we need then
is LSU to step up this week (Alabama in Baton Rouge).
And Florida State (in last game in Tallahassee) or S. Carolina to dump the Gators. Not likely, but it is the SEC.
edsp - November 3, 2008
I’ll willingly admit that I didn’t start following Texas football until the Mich-UT Rose Bowl game. Now I’m curious – what were the attitudes and sentiments on the team in that season? Was it much of the same as this year (rebuilding year, QB emergence, tempered expectations)? Or was it a different dynamic? Thanks for anyone who can pipe in on my question!
TXinDC - November 3, 2008
It's different
For one thing, we lost to OU that year. We were never ranked #1 that year either. We were fortunate just to get into a BCS game. We probably won’t have to worry about that this year.
goingforthecorner - November 3, 2008
Knock on freaking wood.
Said the same thing in ’06. We better focus on winning out. Baylor and Kansas are looking scarier and scarier as we get closer and closer.
hornalum08 - November 3, 2008
No doubt
But this resume of wins we’ve already earned is just ridiculous. Absolutely BCS worthy.
This resume is probably one of the best if not THE best resumes Texas Football has ever put up.
goingforthecorner - November 3, 2008
I completely agree.
But if we lose another game it may not matter. Remember that 2/3rds of the BCS total comes from human voters. It’s stupid, but after seeing us behind OU in the coaches poll, it is clear that our resume just isn’t good enough for some of the human voters.
hornalum08 - November 3, 2008
I don't want to play USC again. Especially not in Pasadena, CA.
How about a new exciting matchup like one of the following:
1. Texas v. Florida
2. Texas v. Alabama
3. Texas v. Penn State
512 - November 3, 2008
We do NOT want USC in the Rose Bowl...
I’ve lived in LA since ‘01 and I promise you that we do not want to play USC. I’m in the movie biz, so 90% of the people I deal with are Trojans, and they will NEVER EVER let their hatred for us go because of how we “stole” their championship. More than that though, while their offense is inconsistent, it can find fire at times, and their defense is amazing. At the same time, they hate that they keep getting called on the truth…that they don’t play anyone this year…and lost to one of ‘em…again. They’d be ready to play. I think we are a better team overall, but as Tech showed, Greg Davis STILL doesn’t know how to play to win. He plays not to lose and puts damn good teams in horrible positions. Quite possibly the worst coach ever….he only gets by on the raw talents of our amazing classes. USC’s D would put points up on us before their offense ever could…promise you. Anyway, maybe Major coming in is all a sign that Greg’s about to hang it up. Maybe? Please?
KevinJ - November 3, 2008
Disagree
If we lose, we lose. Getting the team to Pasadena, where next year’s national title is, would be incredibly great as a building block for any ’09 title run. Moreover, playing the best team possible would further strengthen that objective.
Would it be better to go to the Orange Bowl and kick the crap out of the Big East champ, for example? I’d say no. We want to play as many great teams as possible.
Peter Bean - November 3, 2008
Give me USC
I love having the target on my back when the target is a big time school with tradition (unlike the OK States, Techs). Beating them is only going to be that much sweeter.
Hopefully VY is there too. I bet he’s going to hear a few words of displeasure.
goingforthecorner - November 3, 2008
That's a good point about USC, PB
It would be a great game for us versus beating up on someone from the Big East or ACC. However, I feel that if we don’t wind up in Miami we’ll either be in the Rose Bowl against USC or the Sugar Bowl against an SEC team. (Please, God, let us win out). While playing USC is always great for a program and it would be good for us in so many ways (tough defense, media frenzy for the rematch, good prep for ‘09), at the end of the day I just feel the SEC has more prestige and would do more for both us and our conference right now. I mean, ideally, I’d LOVE for us to tangle with Florida in the Championship game, but less than that (ha, it’s good to be Texas, isn’t it?) I would kill to lock horns with Alabama. (I think they are overrated and have only had one real test all year in Georiga on the road, and that they will shit the bed with LSU this week, but they will still rep the West only to lose to Florida in the SEC Championship…sending them to the Sugar Bowl).
KevinJ - November 4, 2008
Let the hate flow Kevin
We lose one game on the last play and GD is back to pariah.
He has really done a horrible job and obviously our offense is not living up to its preseason expectations. The sooner he leaves the better.
Wells - November 3, 2008
Greg Davis
Look, what Greg has done all year up until Tech in the short-to-mid passing game has been great because no one has wanted to give up the deep ball and Colt’s been a phenom. It’s also why our running game is abysmal. How many games did Charles win for us by himself last year? People are playing against that too, wanting Colt to win it on his arm. What I don’t understand is why Greg can’t be proactive in switching up plans (because believe it or not, Greg, people watch tape on us before playing us), and also why it takes him forever to identify and then play to the strengths of our teams. Running Chris (with a sprained ankle since Mizzou we just found out yesterday) to give them a safety to start the game? That’s a bullshit, call, I’m sorry. If wanted a fast run then go with Fozzy. If he wanted power go with Cody. But a guy with a gimpy ankle who wasn’t our fastest or most powerful to begin with? A momentum moment for both teams? And then, how can he fail to throw down the field to Williams, Kirkendall, etc and instead just stubbornly try to dink and dunk a team playing lateral defense with the safeties cheated way up? Sure, Greg may be “better” than some of the OC’s in the NCAA because he has strong teams and can USUALLY win by playing it safe, but he didn’t start going on the offensive and attacking until the second half. What’s the excuse for that? Tech laid it all out and they beat us. Greg tries to lull defenses to sleep with his short passes and then go for the long bomb later. News flash, Greg, if people know that’s what you’re doing…what you did in the previous 8 games…they will know exactly how to defend it. I just can’t believe he didn’t have a better plan for a crucial game. Tech at home, on GameDay, their biggest game ever… If we miss out on the championship with this one loss it is his fault. Muschamp has work to do, but at least he contained what Tech does best and made them run it to win.
KevinJ - November 4, 2008
Seriously...
What was that all about? While all offensive lineman (especially on the inside) hold and get away with itat times, there were so many flagrant holds on the end of the line against us the entire game I couldn’t believe nothing was being called. Frustrating… Granted, I saw us get away with a few, but not nearly as many or as obvious.
KevinJ - November 4, 2008
disagree also
Greg Davis has shown he is capable of putting together a game plan that will be team specific. i.e. OU. We out coached them that day and with our amount of talent on a neutral field, we can beat any team this year.
jacobb23 - November 3, 2008
USC
I’d love to see us play USC. Colt & the gang will show them it was not a fuke.
burntorange81 - November 3, 2008
2005 aside...
If we do get to Pasadena (only 2.5 hr drive for me!), that’ll be the best defense we’ve seen since the 90s aTm Wrecking Crew. Their offense is nothing special but they have the athletes to break out big against anyone.
HornsFaninCalifornia - November 3, 2008
They looked dominant against Oregon State.
I don’t think that defense is any better than the one we saw at Ohio State in 2005 with AJ Hawk and Bobby Carpenter at LB. I’m so sick of hearing about USC’s “scary” talent. I’ve heard about it year after year, and when it comes down to it all they have to show for it is 1 BCS National Title. Same as us.
the1austin - November 5, 2008
USC game provides the most opportunities
Given the constraints of the question (our still-breathing goals of a MNC or conference title go unfulfilled) USC is a reasonable response. A bowl game rarely “means” anything for most teams. Most teams are fighting for the distinction of a 7 win season versus an 8 win seasons, or just altering their final ranking for the year. However, Texas has shown an unusual ability to use our bowl game to set the stage for the next season (notably the 2005 rose bowl and last year’s Holiday Bowl).
While I find this year’s USC team aesthetically loathsome, (1) they are among the most talented and highly regarded teams (2) playing them would provide a highly visible and highly pressurized game environment which is critical for the younger players who, God bless ’em, still need seasoning if we are to be successful in 2009. If the purpose of our bowl is to generate momentum and consolidate preparation for next year, USC is a fantastic opportunity. Personally I think a game against Bama or Florida would be equally beneficial, except for the geographic familiarity playing in Pasadena would provide next year, and the BCS pairings may prevent those matchups as well.
the chairman211 - November 3, 2008
wait a minute
if Oregon State wins out dont they have the tie breaker over USC and will get the Rose Bowl berth over the Trojans? That’s immensely funny if you ask me.
clra2 - November 3, 2008
Right
Pac 10 champ could be OSU
Peter Bean - November 3, 2008
But we need Oregon St
to lose to diminish Penn St’s SOS right?
HornsFaninCalifornia - November 3, 2008
Sure?
I mean, realistically, you want Penn State to lose if you want Texas to play in Miami. But in the event that Bama finished 13-0 and #1 in the human polls, with Penn State at #2, then yes, you’d want their computer rating to get dinged by Oregon State losses. And of course, you’d need Texas to creep up to #3 in the human polls.
This post is about getting to the Rose Bowl, though, with an undefeated Penn State gone to Miami.
Peter Bean - November 3, 2008
I'm pulling for Oregon State
just to see USC land in the Holiday Bowl or something dumb.
clra2 - November 3, 2008
Longhorn coaches plan to send disputed calls to league office
Interesting article at ESPN.
dimecoverage - November 3, 2008
Sorry, the link didn't attach.
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/big12/0-4-33/Longhorn-coaches-plan-to-send-disputed-calls-to-league-office.html
dimecoverage - November 3, 2008
Re:
Skin Patrol - November 3, 2008
Thank God
Good to know that we have been sending game tape. Obviously, it hasn’t really helped. Refs need to get a clue.
“Tech was not flagged for a holding call in the Texas game. The Red Raiders came into the game leading the Big 12 in most penalty yards.”
ARE YOU KIDDING ME!? GARBAGE!
goingforthecorner - November 3, 2008
Assumption No. 6
“Texas wins out.” That’s the most important. We have got to take care of business.
ATXHornsFan - November 3, 2008
Question:
We’re getting way ahead of ourselves but let’s play with your scenario. Supposing:
Would it be the case that
And why? That looks a lot like Texas Tech in a Big 12 Championship game with one loss to an Oklahoma team that will almost certainly be ranked higher than Ole Miss. Supposing Florida beats Alabama, why would the winner of that conference championship go over a one loss Texas Tech team? I would think we’d have a more impressive schedule than Florida considering who the respective teams will have lost to, under those circumstances.
If we’re serious about the Big 12 being the better conference than the SEC this year, wouldn’t it stand to reason that a one loss Big 12 champion would make the title game over a one loss SEC champion?
Skin Patrol - November 3, 2008
Could certainly happen that way
And if Tech won, they could go to Miami. My scenario has a Missouri win (should have included that) or an unbeaten Bama or one-loss Florida beating out Tech.
Not saying anything about the justice of that—just one possible path for Texas to Pasadena.
Peter Bean - November 3, 2008
I see what you're saying.
Something to chew on… and I know this could never play out with the human voters, but suppose a close win by Florida over Alabama in the SEC championship. Are we really certain that Florida has the better resume? Given their total collapse against Ole Miss, isn’t it difficult to say, straight faced, that Florida would deserve the nod over Alabama? Strange that I can imagine a world where I’d look at the resume of Team A, and then the resume of Team B, and conclude that the loser of a head to head game actually had the better resume.
Suppose Texas Tech beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma State then lost to Baylor (who loses all their other remaining games). Is Tech really the better team than Texas, overall resume? Obviously if that comes up I’ll argue yes, but if that is the case, we sure are devaluing bad losses. I see the same thing happen with USC and Oregon State (though that loss looks less bad every week) and especially Florida.
Is it just me or do people tend to treat big wins as more important than bad losses?
Skin Patrol - November 3, 2008
No
I’m not at all convinced Florida would have the better resume, but the “Gators are peaking and unbeatable!” narrative is ratcheting waaaaay up. I also think Tech will get hurt by lazy historical skepticism. I think they need to win out to win that argument with lazy voters. Not fair, but probably the reality, I suspect.
Peter Bean - November 3, 2008
I concur, Texas Tech cannot make Miami
without winning out. Our best chance at a Big 12 championship involves Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma and us taking care of business at home against OSU. I am very skeptical of our ability to win in Norman.
A lot of things would have to happen for Texas Tech to make a MNC game with one loss, and though I’d argue vehemently against it, the reality is Florida would go in front of us if they beat Alabama in the SEC championship, even if we win the Big 12 title (which necessarily means only one loss). But maybe the computers will continue loving us, in spite of a loss to OU or OSU.
Skin Patrol - November 3, 2008
Predicting SOS and computer polls
Is there anyway to get an estimate of Texas’, Tech’s, and one of OSU/OU’s SOS and computer polls assuming the 3 way tie between Texas, Tech and one of OSU/OU.
Currently SOS is:
-Texas – currently #7, future games against Baylor (no help), Kansas, and A&M (no help)
-Tech – currently 64, future games against OSU, OU (and Baylor (no help)
-OSU – currently 84, future games against OU, Tech, Iowa State (no help)
-OU – currently 38. future games against OSU, Tech A&M (no help)
Horncasting - November 3, 2008
I doubt it will matter.
Human voters will penalize the last loser in the three way tie scenario, and that assumes a Tech loss to Oklahoma, which will be the last of the three way tie teams (which also contemplates OU beating OSU, but even if it doesn’t, even if the three way tie is Texas/Texas Tech/OSU, we’d still be the last losers) to lose, in which event the human voters will likely move Tech behind Texas and would still be reluctant to move a team Texas beat a while back in front of Texas. If one must lose, ‘tis better to lose early. Whatever the computers spit out will be close enough given common opponents (and Tech has two FCS teams on its schedule as well) for the human voters to control, and I think they’d have Texas in front of both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (as they currently are) and Texas Tech, presuming we lose in the next two weeks. It is a psychology problem, I think.
Or else maybe Nevada wins out with a victory over Boise State later on and Kansas beats Missouri… that would certainly strengthen our hand relative to you since it would devalue your victory over Missouri. Tech really needs Missouri to collapse to hold up in a 3-way tie with a late season loss to OSU or OU.
Skin Patrol - November 3, 2008
I never thought
that I could hate football fans as much as I hate my tech friends today.
I sent the congrats on Saturday night with a nice note and don’t bother me til Monday. I still keep getting the “messages” over and over again.
jcbates - November 3, 2008
I bet you'd REALLY hate it
if you received those messages five years in a row.
Skin Patrol - November 3, 2008
will you pay my bail?
Its getting pretty bad and I have to be honest in saying, I have never acted this way.
I don’t even consider Tech on the same playing field as UT. They get a few good players that hang around for a few years and get “the win” every 5 years. I have never behaved this way. They act like they have never won a football game before. FYI, my mother was a Tech grad and begged me to go to Tech for “the Legacy”, so I feel as if I can actually complain.
I think I need the day off tomorrow so I can just hide away another day. Just reassure me that Tech is going to get beat by OSU and OU!!!!
jcbates - November 3, 2008
Tech will lose to both OSU and OU!
Sunkist - November 3, 2008
Sugar Bowl
There has been a media rumor that the Sugar Bowl would grab Texas to play the other SEC team. The Rose Bowl has such a stick up its butt about the Big10 – Pac 10 matchup they would almost surely invite either tOSU or the upstart Mich St. Of course if we finish second in the South behind the conference champ; we could still get the Fiesta Bowl bid.
71grad - November 3, 2008
Scenario
How about this scenario…
1. Penn St. wins out and goes to NC game.
2. OU and Florida win conferences, but Florida struggles in last few game.
3. The final coaches and Harris polls have Penn St a clear #1, Florida barely edging out OU, and Texas at 4. The AP poll has Florida, then Texas, then OU.
4. OU wins the computers and edges out Florida in BCS and plays Penn St.
5. Florida and Texas end up in the Sugar Bowl (I don’t know if Texas would fall this far, but maybe for the good of college football they do).
If OU and Texas were to win, would the AP give its championship to Texas? This would be interested because there would be no talk about who wins on a neutral field.
I know this is unlikely, but these “what-ifs” make college football so interesting.
JohnsonUT - November 3, 2008
Don't think it could happen that way
I think the only way there’s a split national title (highly, highly unlikely in any scenario) is in the following scenario:
1) Bama drops an ugly one before the SEC title game
2) Bama wins SEC over UF
3) One-loss Tech makes B12 Title Game
4) Tech loses B12 Title Game
5) Bama beats UF
5) Penn State versus Bama for national title (Texas squeezed out by razor thin margin on “didn’t win conference title” argument)
6) Texas destroys USC in Rose Bowl
7) Alabama squeaks by Penn State in horribly ugly Title Game
In that scenario? I could see a majority of AP writers giving Texas the nod. Perhaps.
Peter Bean - November 3, 2008
Once again....
If Texas Tech beats Oklahoma State, but loses to OU, and then OU beats Oklahoma State in Stillwater, OU will be the highest ranked team in the BCS…. That would have been 2 top 10/15 teams in the final 3/4 weeks of the season. Texas playing Baylor and ATM won’t help them one bit in the computers. And besides, OU beating O-State at Stillwater to me would be more impressive than say Texas beating Kansas in Lawrence. Does anyone disagree??
EnragedOUfan - November 4, 2008
Maybe
I agree that OU winning at OSU would be more impressive than UT winning at KU.
I don’t actually worry too much about it until the games are actually played, because the outcome is very much in doubt. Que sera, sera.
I am much more interested in how UT will address the problems exposed in the Tech game and how UT plans to deal with Baylor.
Kafka - November 4, 2008
Don't want to play USC
I would much rather play Alabama. I think they are overrated and that UT matches up well with them. I really like the idea of beating an SEC team.
You want to play the best possible team when you have a great team. This year’s horns are not a great team. You have to pick your fights carefully.
I will be amazed if the rest of our opponents this year do not throw short passes to big receivers and force the horns’ DBs to tackle effectively.
What is really funny is that the horns would be much more likely to beat Penn State in the MNC game than Florida or USC in some other bowl game.
If Muschamp leaves this year (some good jobs have opened up like clemson, Washington, and Tennessee), I wonder when he will split? Chizak left right after the regular season (i.e. way before the bowl game). Will Muschamp stay through the bowl game? That seems like the honorable thing to do but it would really screw up his recruiting (i.e. not a good way to start your next job).
Kafka - November 4, 2008
If Blake catches the interception
Are we a great team then?
If you answer no, then I disagree with your logic, or then ask if anyone this year is a great team if a 9-0 Longhorns team, playing one of the hardest schedules in the nation, is not.
If you answer yes, then I would argue that its ridiculous to base calling us great or not on one mishap of a play.
We are a great team, and I want to play the best opponent we can face. Except maybe Florida, because they scare the bejeezus outta me.
BoddickerIsClutch - November 5, 2008
No, we're not great
A great team is a team who can beat anybody, no matter what the matchup. Great teams go undefeated. Texas isn’t that team. Texas has already lost. Texas choked in the clutch. Great teams don’t choke in the clutch.
Reasons UT is not great:
Running attack not great, sometimes not even adequate. O line run blocking not great against a good D. UT has only one runner who could be considered special (Fozzy, based on very limited number of carries). The running scheme is stupid and has been stupid for years. Great teams can run and pass.
UT passing attack really disrupted by a Tech D that nobody claims is great and the loss of one receiver. What happens to UT’s passing attack when it plays somebody who actually has a good D? O line pass blocking is good but not great.
Passing attack has focused almost exclusively on throwing to Shipley and Quan. As soon as one of those guys were hurt, the horns were lost. One silver lining is that the horns were forced to finally throw to the great Malcolm Williams. What took so long? Great coaches would have been throwing much more to Malcolm all year.
Secondary still weak. Pretty amazing job by Muschamp of getting through the year with freshman safeties and undersized CBs. In a bowl game, however, the opposition gets to study film for over a month to figure out how to exploit weaknesses. Texas has plenty of weaknesses to exploit.
Texas played great in the second half of the OU game and the first half of the Mizzou game but that is about it. The rest of the time they played good enough to win (except against Tech) but not great.
Florida waxes UT. Great teams fear no other team. If you fear Florida, you don’t think UT is a great team.
I do think that Colt, Quan, Ship, the D line, Muck, and Sergio (rushing the QB) have been great this year. If the coaches permit Malcolm and fozzy to contribute, they could be great for the remainder of the year.
Kafka - November 5, 2008
So Penn St, Alabama and Tech
are the only potential great teams this year?
Wells - November 7, 2008
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Burnt Orange Nation to post a comment.