While PB does an outstanding job summarizing the
strengths of Dogus Balbay, I wanted to put his post under the microscope and bring up some further discussion points...
I still vividly remember reading the
original post about Durant's departure and allowing myself to become excited about the least ballyhooed member of our incoming recruiting class. However, with the "Iron Curtain" nature of basketball and baseball off-seasons, coupled with Balbay's untimely injury, none of us have actually seen Balbay in action, the
YouTube clip non-withstanding. As a massive Texas basketball fan, it's maddening to be unable to truly dissect Balbay's game in conjunction with our offense through any real video clips or in-depth scouting reports. Basically, we have a YouTube clip, anecdotal evidence, PB's source, and a few scant articles. As PB said, that's not very much. To be fair, the reports on Balbay seem pretty consistent, labeling him as an aggressive PG with a sketchy jumper. For the sake of this article, we'll work with that assumption.
Going away from the largely unknown, we can head back towards something much more familiar. To analyze Balbay's role within the context of the offense, we must recap the impact of DJ Augustin, the man Balbay will replace. PB has already broken down Augustin's weaknesses, but I want to focus on two of his strengths in conjunction with Balbay's attempt to replace him--his outside shooting and dribble penetration.
In the half-court offense, the Texas offense was fueled by DJ's ability to penetrate against (almost) every defender put in front of him. By slicing into the lane, Augustin's excellent vision coupled with the rotations of his teammates provided many wide-open jumpers for AJ Abrams, Connor Atchley, and eventually Gary Johnson. As has been heavily discussed at BON, both Abrams and Atchley struggle in creating their own shots, with AJ sometimes needing double screens to shake free, and Atchley's three-point barrages mainly contingent on him being left alone. Augustin's drives also created pick-and-roll opportunities, leading to some easy lay-ups and dunks for the big men. In fact, without the effect of Augustin, how many of our players demonstrated the ability to create their own shot last season? Damion lethally shot over defenders after some head fakes, Atchley teased with a hook shot, Gary Johnson flashed a few low post moves, and Sexy Dex drank the milkshakes of several defenders. But, by and large, the team's success revolved around Augustin. Based off these strong looks created by DJ drawing the attention of multiple defenders, look at the
3 Point Percentages of some of the starters last year.
James: 41.3% (92 attempts)
Atchley: 41.3% (104 attempts)
Abrams: 38.2% (309 attempts)
Perhaps equally important, Augustin himself shot 38.1% on nearly 200 attempts. After getting burned off the dribble, I remember several defenders trying to neutralize DJ's penetration by playing off of him. DJ's willingness and ability to drain three-pointers off the dribble kept these defenders honest, creating the ultimate Catch-22 which drove the Texas offense. Guard DJ tight, and he'll penetrate and find AJ coming off two screens or deftly slip a pass to one of the big men on the blocks. Take a few steps back, and he'd robotically rise up to shoot a three. With the reports of Balbay's sketchy jumper, I can't help but wonder about the trickle-down effects on the offense, especially considering the three-point line is moving back this season.
While it appears Balbay will be able to attack the rim and create opportunities for his teammates, his shooting will need to be better than reported for the offense to have a similar rhythm to last season. With the deeper three-point line, I worry about teams playing off of Balbay and forcing Texas to either work the perimeter or try to force the ball inside to their big men. Each of Texas' key components on offense has limitations, several of which would be adversely impacted by this arrangement. As previously discussed, DJ's penetration worked to the strengths of our starters. Barring low-post development from the big men, AJ being able to shoot over bigger and longer defenders without the benefit of multiple screens, steady contributions from J'Covan Brown, and more offensive fluidity from Gary Johnson, we might see the 'Horns initially struggle to find an offensive identity.
On the plus side, I think we'll see our defense create a bevy of fast-break opportunities, which render the previous concerns irrelevant. Furthermore, I think we will continue to see the steady development of our returning players, many of whom flashed new talents following their diligent workouts last off-season. This post hasn't even mentioned Justin Mason, who hopefully will become more assertive on the offensive end. I just wanted to remind everyone of the true greatness of DJ Augustin, and how the departure of his multi-faceted skill set compares to the arrival of his successor. I'm happy to have Balbay, but I'm worried about watching a stagnant half-court offense lacking the pure offensive genius of KD and DJ Augustin...
excellent write-up
I absolutely abhor those times when Barnes’ half-court offense becomes stagnant when no playmakers are on the court or when they simply aren’t making plays. It makes me scream at the TV (or in the FEC) “MOVE YOUR ASSES!! DO SOMETHING!!”
And 100 gold stars to you for that stellar Sexy Dex milkshake line.
BigTexBD - June 30, 2008
Excellent post
And a terrific set of counter-points to my optimistic projection. Two follow-up thoughts:
1) I tend to agree with most of your concerns, and my optimism was mainly centered on the idea that Balbay’s reported weakness (jump shooting) is curable with practice, whereas his reported strength (aggression, decision-making) is something that’s very hard to teach. That’s the way you want it.
2) I think you hit a huge key with your note on the fast-break points, which I really hope we key in on next year. Texas’ half-court offense was pretty good last year, actually. But we had DJ. I do worry about us in the half court without Augustin creating. And though we were far from a run-and-gun team last year, I do think we’ll need to look to be more transition-oriented this coming year.
Peter Bean - June 30, 2008
Was Balbay here last summer?
There’s a hidden asset here in that he should have gotten a lot of exposure to DJ and what he could do – and probably a certain amount of actually guarding him in practice. He may have had some interplay with TJ if he was here last summer. Haven’t heard what’s brewing this summer.
If he were here last summer, that would tend to indicate a certain level of development despite the injury down time, with all of summer and fall camp still left to polish the skills.
whills - June 30, 2008
here now
I know he’s on campus this summer; I saw him last week. But I don’t know who else is here.
BigTexBD - June 30, 2008
Yes
He was here all last summer. Got hurt in October.
Peter Bean - July 1, 2008
Well, that counts for some optimism and confidence.
There will be some transition to actual competition, but he should adapt quickly.
I suspect other players will be eager to take up the scoring slack as he finds his touch, although that may be attributed toward catching Rick’s eye, too.
whills - July 1, 2008
Hope
If things develop as I hope, this year we will transition from a guard-oriented offense to a more balanced game with some real inside scoring. (Not just big guys popping out for jumpers like Atchley often does.) If Balbay can make the inside pass, then suddenly it doesn’t matter if he can hit the jumper. And with in and out plays, AJ gets more clear shots to punish a sagging defense.
In all seriousness, I think this could be the best team we have had here.
Caradoc - July 1, 2008
I say
we play it “safe” and put Mason at PG.
He knows the offense better, and is just a beast when he’s in the game. I realize that when playing the role of the PG he will have to limit the things he does realative to everyone else on the court. But he would be my PG is I was coach. West Texas boy.
Mason
AJ
James
Gary
Atchley
You must be a parking ticket, cause you got FINEeeal Four written all over you.
texasfan05 - July 1, 2008
Play it safe? In basketball?
Why would you need to play it safe?
If Balbay turns out to be the best point, then he needs to be out there playing. At this moment, no one knows though, we havent seen him play.
Irregardless, I fully trust Barnes to put the best team out on the court with the players he has.
BoddickerIsClutch - July 1, 2008
Mason
I do like him at point, but only to spell the normal PG. I worry that he would wear down if he ran the point regularly and it would take a toll on his defensive prowess. IMO, we need him to man-up on D more than on offense.
BigTexBD - July 1, 2008
the past informs the future.
Aldridge, Durant and Augustin were all great talents and I wonder if all that talent suppresses the forced growth of the other players. Without DJ next year players will be forced to develop how to get their own shot more. DJ mentioned something along those lines during Durant’s season he didn’t feel it was on his shoulders to be the play maker. So next season with out a dominating presence on the court no one will be able to let up and say give to DJ or Durant and let him create. This might be the first season of the last three where individual play will be less important than team play in determining how successful they are.
Xerxes - July 1, 2008
That's a really insightful comment, Xerxes.
When you have that dominating scoring presence, everyone looks to that person instead of themselves. Think of DJ in the half court, especially in Big 12 play this last year; he took over because he could. Not necessarily bad, but if he wasn’t there, everyone would have had to been working for their shot.
I think you’re right and this will be a very exciting season where players can really develop. The age and experience of the Horns sets up your thesis well.
whills - July 1, 2008
Thats why I loved TJ so much
He knew the team was at its best when he was acting as a distributor.
If he didnt get the scoring support, hed take the game over, but that cast was better on the court with him than without him, no question no doubt.
BoddickerIsClutch - July 1, 2008
I think
Playing Mason parallel with Balbay would be an interesting option for this coming year.
(I am assuming Balbay is not as good as DJ was last year, handling wise, but better than AJ :})
Since we don’t have one of the best college ball handlers in the face of DJ this upcoming year I think the team might want to field more than one player who can control the ball well, and slash inside. I see that Mason and Balbay will both do a better job than AJ.
In addition, the two former players will most likely be here for more than just next year so it will be important for them to pick up guard duty and experience. How AJ will contribute I am not sure. Maybe he can be our bench veteran and scoring lift. I hope I don’t get heckled too much for saying this.
Anyone know if DaMo and Atchley are leaving after this coming year? Is there a possibility of them staying next fall as well?
Ultra Horn - July 1, 2008
i think atchley's gonna be a senior.
vy til i die - July 1, 2008
Atchley is gone, probably Damion
Atchley will be a 5th year senior, so he’s done after this season. Damion would be a senior in ‘09-’10, but I don’t see him staying for a fourth year.
bassale47 - July 1, 2008
AJ on the bench
only works if Mason or Balbay turn into an outside scoring threat. Otherwise teams will just drop into a soft 2-3 zone, cut off our production underneath and dare Mason and Balbay to shoot the three.
Wells - July 1, 2008
AJ Abrams...
...scored double-figures in 30 out of the 37 games he played last season. Regardless of whether or not you liked his NBA dabbling, his return is one of the main reasons I’m feeling pretty good about next year…
With Mason and Balbay largely unproven as scorers, there’s going to be plenty of opportunities for AJ to prove his mettle as a more well-rounded scorer than previously displayed…
txtwstr7 - July 1, 2008
I agree with you.
If AJ has serious dreams of NBA, he knows he must hit over 40% of his treys to be viable. The higher the better to sell his image as a real sharpshooter. Much better shot selection would help a lot.
whills - July 2, 2008
AJ
AJ’s gotta be in there. The question is whether Barnes will continue with his 3 guard lineup or take advantage of his crop of big men. Atchley and James alone do not give us a strong inside presence, but add Johnson, Pittman, or Wangmene and you’ve got something going.
Caradoc - July 1, 2008
3 point %
pretty good all the way around, but for nothing that it is worth I have never been a fan of relying on the three point shot anyway. In my simple opinion, a strong, fundamental team must be able to work it inside with muscle (e.g., James Thomas, Damion James) and hit medium range jumpers with pretty good accuracy. Perhaps I am out of touch (maybe it’s my shoes), but 1000 attempts at 3 pointers is not the sign of a tough team. I cannot wait to see Balbay hopefully bring some basic point guard skill. I’m not so upset with AJ as many of you seems to be, but to count on his three pointers may work in the regular season but never in the post-season.
bfaut86 - July 1, 2008
A good three point shooter
should work as a complement to a good inside game.
If you are hitting the three, defenders will have to play out on you, leaving your bigs with single coverage down below. If you are killing underneath, defenders will have to double down, leaving you open for threes.
The problem is when your team relies on either inside or outside to the detriment of the other.
Wells - July 2, 2008
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