A weekend without upsets produces similar BCS standings from a week ago. Florida, Alabama, and Texas all still control their own destiny. Win and move on is all that matters. Some might want to add LSU as well but their one loss and a less than impressive body of work, so far, places them just a rung behind the favorites. Iowa and Cincinnati continue their march toward perfection, and things could get very interesting if fewer than two of the favorites run the table.
The big news in the standings is TCU's jump of Boise State. The BCS awards the top team from any non-automatic qualifying league an automatic berth into the BCS if that team is ranked in the top 12 or ranked in the top 16 and ahead of an automatic qualifying conference champion. The key word in that rule is "team" -- only one such team automatically qualifies. If both TCU and Boise State win out, they will both be ranked in the top 12 but only one will earn an automatic berth into a BCS bowl game. Now, that doesn't mean that the other team couldn't be chosen. However, given the choice between Boise State and the SEC championship game loser or a second team from the Big 10 (Penn State) or a second team from the Pac 10 (Oregon) or maybe even a second team from the Big XII (Oklahoma State), it is hard to see how the Broncos getting picked.
The even worse news for Boise State is that their schedule the rest of the season will hurt them in the computers for sure, and probably not impress the voters either. As long as TCU continues to win, they will remain on the inside track for a first-ever BCS game.
Other musings from the second BCS standings of the season:.
After the jump, a look at this week's Favorites, Contenders, and those that Need Help...
The Favorites:
1. Florida (7-0; BCS 1): Well, the premature engraving of Tim Tebow's name has stopped after two pick sixes and another four-quarter strugglefest with an inferior conference foe. Image is nothing to the teams in this category, though. Win and move on is all that matters.
Next Games: 10/31 (n) Georgia, 11/7 Vanderbilt, 11/14 @ S. Carolina
2. Alabama (8-0; BCS 2): After five straight games with 30 or more points to start the season, ‘Bama has scored 22 or less in each of their last three. Greg McElory continues to struggle throwing the football (18/29 for a measly 120 yds against Tennessee). If the passing game isn't found during the bye week, LSU will have a great shot in Tuscaloosa in two weeks.
Next Games: 10/31 Bye, 11/7 LSU, 11/14 @ Miss State
3. Texas (7-0; BCS 3): Kudos to Greg Davis and Mack Brown for making extremely necessary offensive changes despite being undefeated. The insertions of Marquise Goodwin, Fozzy Whittaker, and Malcolm Williams and Jordan Shipley's move back into the slot paid huge dividends over the first two quarters in Columbia. Had that Texas team shown up in Wyoming or against Tech or Colorado, the ‘Horns would be the clear number one team in the country. Oh and by the way, the Texas D is the best of the Brown era. Dirty, dirty, dirty.
Next Games:10/31 @ Ok State, 11/7 UCF, 11/14 @ Baylor
The Contenders:
1. Iowa (8-0; BCS 4): The Hawkeyes may have won ugly but they won again. For the second week in a row, they prevailed as a road underdog to a conference opponent. Should Iowa win their next two, it will be interesting to see if they are road dogs again in Columbus. As mentioned above, Iowa likely won't have enough quality wins in the voters' eyes to overtake any of the top three undefeated teams. However, things will become very dicey should only one of those three end the year undefeated. Would Iowa or a one-loss SEC champ deserve to play for it all? What about an undefeated Hawkeye team or a once-defeated Texas or a one-loss Pac 10 champ?
Next Games: 10/31 Indiana, 11/7 Northwestern, 11/14 @ Ohio State
2. USC (6-1; BCS 5): A week ago, I wrote that USC better start winning with style so that they could win an argument over a one-loss SEC champion. Well, they barely held off Oregon State at home and are now behind Iowa in addition to not having a strong argument over a one-loss Florida or Alabama. Trojan fans, don't get too down. If you win in Eugene this weekend, the voters will love you once again and the computers will surely improve their impression as well.
Next Games: 10/31 @ Oregon, 11/7 @ Arizona St, 11/14 Stanford
3. LSU (6-1; BCS 9): The Tigers continue to quietly plod along the road to an SEC West title. LSU steps out of conference this weekend before traveling to Alabama to decide the division crown. Their defense appears legit. If they can get their offense going, look out Tide.
Next Games: 10/31 Tulane, 11/7 @ Alabama, 11/14 La Tech
Need Help:
1. Cincinnati (7-0; BCS 8): No Tony Pike, no problem. The Bearcats rolled past Louisville on Saturday, 41-10. Pike can easily take another week off, if needed, as a trip to Syracuse should scare no one. The win at South Florida was nice, but Cincy better hammer West Virginia and Pittsburgh to have any shot to realistically jump into the national championship picture.
Next Games: 10/31 @ Syracuse, 11/7 Connecticut, 11/13 West Virginia
2. TCU (7-0; BCS 6): The Horned Frogs are here to stay. TCU stomped past BYU, 38-7, in Provo, and appear headed to 12-0 and a trip to Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.
Next Games:10/31 UNLV, 11/7 @ San Diego, 11/14 Utah
3. Oregon (6-1; BCS 10): The Ducks continue to roll too and will now have a chance to really impress as ESPN "Gameday" visits this weekend. Oregon is already loved by the computers but would shoot up the polls and consequently the BCS standings with a win over USC.
Next Games:10/31 USC, 11/7 @ Stanford, 11/14 Arizona State
Knocking on the Door but Nobody's Home:
1. Boise State (7-0; BCS 7): The Broncos win 54-9 on the road and drop three spots in the BCS. That's about right. Their strength of schedule is 54th(Sagarin) and will only get worse, as their remaining six opponents are just awful. The voters aren't going to move them up, the computers are beginning to hate them, and TCU just passed them. As long as they Horned Frogs keep winning their BCS dreams are dead.
0 recs | 22 comments
Good work.
You read my mind. I was worrying about Iowa.
pfc - October 26, 2009
Iowa
What happens if they’re #3 in the polls and #1 in the computers? Say they crush Ohio State on the road, the top three are SEC undefeated, Texas, Iowa. With USC and the SEC loser falling below them.
40AS - October 26, 2009
I think you need a couple of shots of tequila right now. nt
whills - October 26, 2009
Right now
We are a weak #5 in the computers, bringing in just 0.790 of the 0.800 expected.
Iowa is a perfect #1 with 1.000 out of 1.000.
If we end up as 1 of the last 3 undefeated, even if considered the weakest of the three, we should be a solid #3, which would give us 0.88 or +0.09, Iowa can only lose points here.
Right now we are inches behind Bama, and far from Iowa, so we will assume the SEC winner is a clear cut #1, Texas a clear #2 and Iowa the clear #3. That would project to us getting 0.96 from the Harris and 0.96 from the Coaches. Iowa would get 0.92 from each.
So to total, we would have 0.933 and Iowa would have 0.947
However keep in mind:
1) The undefeated SEC winner will surely get #1 in many if not all computers after beating such a quality opponent. This will hurt Iowa, and will not affect us. Dropping a single place in the computers would reduce Iowa by 0.04, more then enough to cover us.
2) We play (2) more games after Iowa has finished playing their season. Talk about being fresher in the voter’s minds. I seriously doubt we arent much closer to #1 with a big gap between SEC + Us and Iowa, based solely on the fact that we would be playing a championship game and they would have finished football long before.
3) Computers think Ohio State is 23rd, and that OkState is 17th. To them, we have the better opponents left.
4) Iowa’s remaining opponents are 19-14, Texas’s are 18-10, plus a championship game.
We will be fine against Iowa
BoddickerIsClutch - October 26, 2009
Human element
People often look at the computers, the pollsters, and the coaches as operating independantly from each other, however this isn’t the case. Pollsters will adjust their rankings based on what they perceive as a team getting unfairly dinged in the computers. This sort of manipulation is a “check” on the wieght of the computer score. Texas has arguably been the beneficiary twice of these manipulations — once in 2004 when voters swung Texas over Cal (which would have occured independantly due to the computers but that’s another thread) and again last year when Texas closed the gap against OU in the closing weeks of the season (although it ultimately wasn’t enough).
The point being that Texas has multiple advantages over Iowa assuming both teams are undefeated as Boddicker listed. However, in addition to those the most important may be the human element. At the end of the year, (assuming both teams win out) I firmly believe pollsters and coaches will look more favorably on an undefeated Big 12 champ than a Big 10 champ given the Little 10’s struggles in big games. In addition, Texas is the beneficiary of substantial positive carryover from last year, and a top 3 ranking to start the year. Assuming we win out, our ranking and relative strength the polls will only get better which will counteract any weakness in the polls.
BMG - October 26, 2009
This bit isn't true:
The computers had UT at #4 both weeks [PDF], the human voters kept UT at 5 & 6 but a few voters moved them up and that pushed us over the top. It’s a nice story, but it’s not true. It gets repeated a lot anyway though.
ajax77777 - October 26, 2009
Iowa a real threat
I agree that Iowa is more of a threat than being credited here. If Iowa is impressive in beating OSU, they will be breathing down our necks in the polls. If the polls margin is close where Texas and Iowa split the 2 and 3 votes, their lead in the computers will be problematic…
BigDSteve - October 26, 2009
If Iowa Passes Texas ...
The idiot who wrote the computer program is hereby sentenced to watch every minute of the Florida vs. Iowa embarrassment – including commercials. You thought tOSU was a bad show?
realmccoy - October 26, 2009
This is my concern as well
I think Iowa could well be as high as #2 or # 3 in the human polls before season’s end, should they run the table impressively. And with wins at Penn State, at Ohio State, and at Wisconsin, deservedly so.
But what happens if Texas is the only ranked team in the Big XII in December? That will be dangerous, considering our primary argument over an undefeated Iowa or Cinci is built around conference-superiority. But it isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibilities that both of those conferences could finish the season with more ranked teams than the Big XII.
BrooklynHorn - October 26, 2009
Why are we worried about Iowa?
This is the same Iowa team who squeaked by Arkansas State! Anyone know who else beat Arkansas State? Louisiana Monroe! Iowa will lose AT LEAST once over the remainder of the season. They are a complete non-factor, so just be patient.
Misterserious7 - October 26, 2009
I think we all assumed...
they’d lose at least one of the last three (Michigan, at Wisconsin, and at MSU), and yet here we are. After Penn State, I would have given them a 10% chance of going undefeated. Now I’d move that closer to 50%, and if they do, be prepared to sweat the first week of December.
BrooklynHorn - October 26, 2009
this is the week
with Bama on a bye this week the Horns have their best chance to leap frog Bama with an impressive victory.
BMG - October 26, 2009
boise state
plays idaho, a 6win team… not too bad of an opponent
greenspointexas - October 26, 2009
Doesn’t the computer ranking somewhat normalize by leaving out the extremes—that is, the lowest and highest for each team?
If not, it damn well should.
burntorangehorn - October 26, 2009
It drops your highest and lowest scores.
Then averages the remaining 4, making the resolution huge for the computer score.
For instance, Iowa is currently a consensus #1 even though one computer has then at #2, so they get 1.000 points.
If two more computers decide they are #2, they drop 0.02 points.
That they are a consensus #1 now, and we are still well ahead of them, is what gives me total confidence that Texas will not get BCScrewed by Iowa. If we win out we will be ahead of them.
BoddickerIsClutch - October 26, 2009
some idiot..
In the washington post called our defense marginal..
sahyouni - October 26, 2009 via mobile
actually
Mediocre pass defense is exactly what he said. After allowing a whole 99 yds this past week. I don’t get his expectations.
sahyouni - October 26, 2009 via mobile
Oklahoma State
Hopefully, this won’t be a conversation point after this weekend, but theoretically speaking, where in the heirarchy of contenders would a 12-1, Big XII Champion OSU rank?
Hopkins Horn - October 26, 2009 via mobile
A better win (over Texas) and "better" loss (to Houston) than USC has...
…but they’d be in the Fiesta on pure USC love.
burntorangehorn - October 26, 2009
+1
realmccoy - October 26, 2009
Good stuff Wiggy
Come to Stillwater with me and Windler
Peter Bean - October 26, 2009
Just Win
Give Mack and team credit – this team is focused – I am extremely optimistic this weekend!
realmccoy - October 26, 2009
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