Who says it hasn't been a strange season so far?
| Rank | Name | Team | Yr | Pos | G | Att | Comp | Pct. | Yards | Yards/Att | Int | TD | Rating | Att/G | Yards/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyrod Taylor | Va Tech | JR | QB | 7 | 118 | 68 | 57.6 | 1154 | 9.8 | 3 | 9 | 159.87 | 16.9 | 164.9 |
| 2 | Nathan Enderle | Idaho | JR | QB | 8 | 214 | 136 | 63.6 | 2077 | 9.7 | 7 | 13 | 158.59 | 26.8 | 259.6 |
| 3 | Matt Barkley | USC | FR | QB | 6 | 161 | 97 | 60.2 | 1540 | 9.6 | 5 | 7 | 148.74 | 26.8 | 256.7 |
| 4 | Jacory Harris | Miami (Fl) | SO | QB | 7 | 189 | 122 | 64.6 | 1774 | 9.4 | 10 | 13 | 155.51 | 27.0 | 253.4 |
| 5 | Andrew Luck | Stanford | FR | QB | 8 | 196 | 114 | 58.2 | 1825 | 9.3 | 3 | 9 | 148.46 | 24.5 | 228.1 |
| 6 | Cody Endres | U Conn | SO | QB | 6 | 145 | 94 | 64.8 | 1314 | 9.1 | 4 | 6 | 149.09 | 24.2 | 219.0 |
| 7 | Max Hall | BYU | SR | QB | 8 | 247 | 170 | 68.8 | 2231 | 9.0 | 11 | 17 | 158.50 | 30.9 | 278.9 |
| 8 | Jimmy Clausen | Notre Dame | JR | QB | 7 | 230 | 150 | 65.2 | 2050 | 8.9 | 2 | 16 | 161.31 | 32.9 | 292.9 |
| 9 | Zac Robinson | Okla St | SR | QB | 7 | 176 | 115 | 65.3 | 1547 | 8.8 | 3 | 12 | 158.27 | 25.1 | 221.0 |
| 9 | Andy Dalton | TCU | JR | QB | 7 | 166 | 106 | 63.9 | 1464 | 8.8 | 3 | 11 | 156.20 | 23.7 | 209.1 |
| 9 | Tim Tebow | Florida | SR | QB | 7 | 132 | 84 | 63.6 | 1159 | 8.8 | 4 | 8 | 151.33 | 18.9 | 165.6 |
| 58 | Colt McCoy | Texas | SR | QB | 7 | 254 | 182 | 71.7 | 1806 | 7.1 | 8 | 14 | 143.26 | 36.3 | 258.0 |
| 7 | McCoy 2008 |
Texas | JR | QB | 13 | 433 | 332 | 76.7 | 3859 | 8.9 | 8 | 34 | 173.74 | 33.3 | 296.8 |
For McCoy, at least some regression to the mean was all but inevitable, but there's no question in my mind that this kind of variance is the effect of a much deeper cause -- and no, I don't mean the flu. If any still doubt the necessity of evolution in the offense, the chart above should complete the conversion.
The belated adjustments against Missouri were most welcome, but the qualifier is key -- it is late. And the stakes are so high. Colt McCoy has proven that he can succeed, and also where he will struggle. The defense alone might well be capable of getting the team through Stillwater, and on to Pasadena. But it is the extent to which the coaches succeed in putting McCoy in a position to excel that may well determine if Texas gets to dance in confetti.
0 recs | 42 comments
Still at the top of that pack in terms of Comp%, though that may be due in part to the fact the GD relies almost exclusively on the short game.
patienthornsfan - October 28, 2009
What we are missing here is the average yards after catch
I think that would give a little more insight to the cause of the drop in yds/att.
Wells - October 28, 2009
Tebow had a ton of YAC against Miss. State
Of course it was all gained by Miss. State players.
On a side note, Tebow is not in McCoy’s league as a tackler.
Horncasting - October 28, 2009
Tebow
probably can’t grow a stache either.
billb - October 28, 2009
Wells, it's like you always say...
If a $300 million NASA satellite crashes into the moon, it still got to the moon didn’t it? Damn right it did.
McCoy’s fine, just give him some Tang.
And PB, I’m pretty sure we all agreed that stats were for losers…or was that rehab is for quitters.
Let’s discuss it at Inuit Joe’s on Saturday as we construct the multi-colored beeramid to an undefeated season.
Stay thirsty my friends.
54b - October 28, 2009
Don't worry, be happy
Teams were bound to catch up with the 4 wide short passing attack. It was already happening toward the end of last season.
It is much easier to pass effectively when you can run effectively (hello play action passing, so nice to see you again). Now that the horns can run effectively (due mainly to incorporating a real TE into the standard formation), teams won’t be able to pressure Colt as much. His stats will improve (including yards per attempt). Colt averaged about 8.67 yards per attempt vs Mizzou, which ain’t bad (especially when you consider that Mizzou was giving UT the short pass to prevent big plays).
The UT O is well rounded. Fozzy is an excellent outside runner. Cody is an excellent power back. UT’s top 6 WRs (Ship, Goodwin, Malcolm, Buckner, Chiles, and Kirk) are an outstanding group. The OL pass blocks well and has been doing a fine job of run blocking since Greg Smith went fulltime. Colt is an awesome QB except for throwing into double coverage too much. Greg Smith has been much better at TE than most anticipated.
The two main worries for the UT O are injuries and turnovers (especially by Colt and Malcolm).
UT is the best team in the country.
Kafka - October 28, 2009
Intersest but Overrated and a tad squewed at this point
The fact that Tebow is #8, Taylor of Va Tech is #1 and Barkley is #3 tells me this stat is largely meaningless. Overall our offense is outperforming all of theirs.
Not one of those offenses or QBs would I trade for ours or Colt.
Also think the shift to the 11 package (w/TE) away from the 4 wides will see these numbers rising for Colt. So will moving Ship back inside and adding even more speed to the wide out spot in Williams and Goodwin.
As kafka said, our offense is becoming more well rounded but we rely on more of a short passing attack while teams like USC, ND etc are more vertical/pro style approaches.
Notice also that Colt has significantly more pass attempts than anyone there too. More short passes hurt the average but I’m one of those “move the chains” kinda guys.
echeese - October 28, 2009
Yards per pass attempt.
I think it was either from Chris Brown or Matt Hinton, but I remember reading somewhere that yards per pass attempt is probably the best single stat to use to analyze how effective a quarterback is playing, better than completion percentage, pure yards, yards per completion, any of that.
To me, this stat is mostly about two things: 1) the Longhorns are no longer hitting crossing routes for big gains, particularly in third and long situations. Has a completed crossing route picked up even close to 10 yards this season? Not that I can recall. And 2) as Wells mentions, the yards after catch have decreased and a lot of that has to do with the previous point and also all those plays where Quan caught a short pass and made a defender miss.
Wescott Eberts (GoBR) - October 28, 2009
Crossing route
We did finally hit one for a big gainer — to Shipley over the middle against Mizzou, which went for like 30 yards with his YAC.
One of the things I’m glad about heading forward — Ship back in the slot
Peter Bean - October 28, 2009
Shipley
Just went back and looked at his three big gains on the day and none of them were a crossing route. The first play from scrimmage was either a short out or an option route he took outside, the second was a deep out, and the third was a skinny post.
Definitely agree, though, that you were right about Shipley in the slot. I still think he might have worked at the split end position if Kirkendoll and Chiles hadn’t been so terrible on the other side of the field, but I think this definitely does work to his strengths the best. Wonder why the coaches listed him at flanker last week when he played in the slot? Trying to confuse the opponent or did they decide during the week that the slot was his best position. Whatever the reason, it’s going to be hard for opponents to deal with him there.
Wescott Eberts (GoBR) - October 28, 2009
Flanker
I didn’t look at the replays so I was guessing the big gainer was a cross. In any case, you’re right about the point I was making.
As for the flanker — that’s the correct listing, and where he played last year. See here.
Peter Bean - October 28, 2009
Re: Yards per pass attempt
It was Chris Brown, and it’s a pretty good read. I think he’s right, and a better statistician than I could probably prove it empirically.
The decrease in yards per completion is correlative (and likely causative) of drives with more plays – particularly combined with the rushing averages. More plays before scoring means more opportunities for turnovers, and a correlation between increased interceptions. It also means more potential for sacks, hits on the quarterback and any number of other things we don’t want.
learned hand - October 28, 2009
There is an upside...
Long, sustained drives keep your defense off the field. I imagine a turnover ending a 10 or 12-play drive is less likely to lead to points for the opposition then a long bomb intercepted just 2 or 3 plays after your defense left the field.
Rickyspub - October 28, 2009
I'm all for sustained drives
But the pressure the current situation puts on Colt is enormous. On average he has to complete two passes to make a first down, versus one completion for a guy like Max Hall or most others on the list. (Also, note I changed to completion from attempt there to highlight the point, just so nobody screams about no player averaging 10 per attempt)
It is almost a prerequisite that Colt have an average completion percentage north of 70% for UT to score on any given drive. He can do it, but the offense might not even function in the hands of any other QB in the country.
learned hand - October 28, 2009
Yards per completion not very important
Yards per attempt is much more meaningful than yards per completion. For example, what good does it do average 10 YPC if you only hit 25% of your passes?
Also, validating the importance of the YPA stat by using YPC is not logical.
Kafka - October 28, 2009
I knew someone would bitch about that.
Surprisingly, I am a high school graduate so I’m not unfamiliar with percentages. Three numbers are at issue. Ratable Yards from Attempt (YPA), Ratable Yards from success (YPC) and Percentage Success (Comp. %). That the three are interrelated should be obvious.
So here’s my point, hopefully sufficiently broken down to avoid misunderstanding. We are speaking of a QB whose career completion percentage has a range from 65.1 to 76.7. Within this deviation, an outlier of the hypothetical 25% qb is wholly irrelevant.
Starting with the yards per attempt metric, Colt is 58th in the country. At first glance this would put UT in Ricky Stanzi’s neighborhood. This would appear to be a measure of overall efficiency "meaningfully as you note. However, the Texas passing attack is not at all similar to Iowa.
Perhaps more surprisingly, currently Texas is 114th out of 117 teams in yards per completion at 9.9. That is, if the quarterback has success, then on average he will not have thrown for a first down with the standard ten yards to go. In a purely theoretical world, Colt would need 10 completions on a drive from the 1 yard line to score. Eight programs in FBS are currently similarly situated, you know these juggernaut offenses as the likes of North Texas, San Jose State and Rice. These are also not comparable in terms of production.
This brings us to the third factor, mentioned in my second paragraph, Texas is not in the middling to dregs of division one passing attacks because of the 3rd number, completion percentage. The higher the quarterbacks completion percentage the closer the attempted and success rates will be. Colt averages 7.1 yards per attempt and 9.9 yards per completion. 71.7% for those who like checking their work.
Were the yards per completion to stay the same, receivers running the same routes, same YAC etc. but completion percentage were to drop to something vaguely human – like 65% – then YPA and more importantly, the offense as a whole would suffer drastically. The point is that the offense, as currently constituted, requires a gifted quarterback for success. You think OU has problems? Without major changes, Texas sans Colt is hosed. Texas with Colt at 80% is hosed.
Other than attempting make that point in two paragraphs and failing miserably, I’m not sure how you think I’m validating one with the other. The numbers are unavoidably intertwined with completion percentage if you want to use either for anything. Unless you’re a Tyrod Taylor fan.
learned hand - October 28, 2009
Great stuff
Your post was entertaining.
Kafka - October 29, 2009
I'm no statistician, but I play an excellent game of "find the anamoly".
learned hand - October 29, 2009
The article doesnt really go much into why YPA is the best stat
The article is more about using it to balance your rushes and passing, and what it tells you about your play call balance. To that point, it makes a strong case.
To evaluate a passer’s efficiency though, it doesn’t do that at all. I think where offenses are relatively the same, it tells you something. Which would be across the NFL for the most part, or in a college team from year to year.
I think Tech has probably the most successful and consistent passing attack that we have seen. Im pretty sure no one has said they could be better if only they could pass the ball better, more efficiently, etc… But in the past 4 years they ranked in the 30’s twice, and only got as high as 14th in the YPA category.
Its hard for me to believe that a stat that has Tyrodd Taylor as #1, and a Mike Leach QB at #30 is that good of an indicator for effective QB play. It just doesnt compute.
Other notables this year:
Terrelle Pryor is playing better than Dan LeFevour?
Greg Paulus = Tate Forcier?
And both GJ Kinne, and Jevan Snead are playing better than Colt?
Point being, its a stat for the offense efficiency as it relates to running the ball, but not the QB’s effectiveness in a vacuum. And this reply probably should have been to GoBR’s post above, but oh well!
BoddickerIsClutch - October 28, 2009
Sorry BiC
I captured the wrong link in the chain. Brown linked to this in the post. It’s just a few paragraphs and I summarized it okay I think.
learned hand - October 28, 2009
That guy is also talking purely NFL, which is different imo as the offenses are relatively the same, and the talent level is also relatively level.
Again I don’t think it really applies across something as big and varied as college football, and certainly not indicative of the QB nearly as much as the offense as a unit.
BoddickerIsClutch - October 28, 2009
Yeah, I was thinking about that after posting
Though I believe there’s still some merit to “the more times you have to put the ball in the air, the greater chance of something going wrong” mindset. The absurd variations in FBS football talent and scheme make any broad statistical comparisons pretty difficult to do reasonably.
That said, Colt’s decrease in YPA to sub 2007 levels and an increase in interceptions does seem to wiggle its eyebrows and gesture furtively.
learned hand - October 28, 2009
I dont disagree
Like I said, when comparing a program from year to year, I think its fair, as the competition and personnel will stay relatively constant. And anyone watching our O this year as opposed to last year could tell you its less effective.
My original post really should have been to GoBR who said “yards per pass attempt is probably the best single stat to use to analyze how effective a quarterback is playing” in the context of the chart above that would lead to the conclusion that its the best stat to compare QBs to each other to see who is playing the most effectively. Which is where I take issue.
BoddickerIsClutch - October 28, 2009
Your point
I think I probably did go a little overboard is calling it the best single stat, but I think it is still extremely useful, but it’s true that Brown’s original point I think goes to evaluating the risk-reward of throwing versus passing. It had been some time since I had read it and probably took it out of context a bit.
Wescott Eberts (GoBR) - October 28, 2009
After killing more time
Following Chris Brown a few more of his rabbit holes, I think I may have found what you were remembering.
Trojan Football analysis ran regression against a series of offensive stats to see which one correllates the most closely with winning. Passing yards per attempt came in #2 behind scoring average.
http://www.trojanfootballanalysis.com/wp/wordpress/?p=620#more-620
Again, correlation wiggles its eyebrows at us.
learned hand - October 28, 2009
Living in the past
Given that UT has changed its offense so radically in the last game and a half, shouldn’t the focus be more on the Mizzou results? Colt averaged 8.67 yards per completion against Mizzou, which is fine. He threw 3 TD passes. The UT offense kicked ass in the first half, rolling up 28 points against a team that is better than most of the teams UT has played this season.
An example of the effectiveness of the new offense was the play action pass to Chiles for a TD. Chiles was beyond all defenders when he caught the ball and the play would have resulted in a TD from whatever yard line it originated. Previously, when UT had no run game, the play action pass was not effective. This is a huge improvement in the passing game.
A lot of things affect seasonal statistics that make them unreliable for comparison. Colt had accuracy problems in the first few games this season. Many of his receivers were inexperienced. Defenses were selling out to stop the pass. Now the horns are playing a real TE which has improved the OL blocking and un game tremendously The top two TBs are different. Two of the 3 WRs are different. Colt is back to throwing accurately. Season long stats are not very relevant when there is such recent radical change.
While YPA is important, it is not all important (just one of many relevant stats). QB sacks and Interceptions are also hugely important. Giving the D a chance to rest is a big deal.
Kafka - October 28, 2009
Would be interested to read that write up
And think you are right on the crossing patterns though I speculate the new focus on the 11 grouping will actually improve that.
I’ve never seen an indepth write up on YPC as an indicator of offensive success so I’d like to read it and I understand we are only half way through the season
As you said, it’s been a strange season but we are far enough into the year where everyone has enough good opponents and mutts to create a clearer picture.
Not sure the correlation is correct and it’s JMHO but of the 10 QBs listed, I wouldn’t trade a single one for Colt. Of course i will also wager we see that number rise from here out for several reasons:
Run game will make play action more effective and move S’s out of soft coverage and up nearer the line.
Ship in the slot, speed on the flanks.
We won’t run “vanilla” offenses again this year.
echeese - October 28, 2009
Great chart, PB
It strongly validates something we’ve all observed — the offense isn’t functioning like it did in 2008. The question is why. A layman’s stab at answering:
1. Defenses have caught up to Colt’s flying circus. This was predictable — Scipio Tex at BC was one of many who saw it coming. Thing is, the evidence was mounting at this point a year ago (Tech, Aggies, Ohio State had success at slowing the offense). But the HC and the OC chose to stay the course. Understandable. Not exactly visionary.
2. McCoy couldn’t be as perfect as he was through most of ’08, as PB mentions with his “regression” comment.
3. Quan Cosby and Chris Ogbonnaya were more important than we realized. Brandon Collins may have been.
4. Injuries/conditioning issues have limited the effectiveness of the top running backs.
5. The ongoing tight end issue. (Again, this was evident over the last half of 2008. Coaches tried to fix the problem and have not, though injuries played a major part.)
I’m sure there are others.
edsp - October 28, 2009
Ongoing TE issue
You point out that there is an ongoing TE issue, do you think playing Greg Smith fulltime has made the problem worse? What is so strange is that the offense played so well against MIzzou even though the TE played most of the game.
My impression is that Greg Smith is doing a good job at TE with his blocking and pass catching and that UT’s pass and run blocking have improved significantly as a result. Where do you think he is failing?
Kafka - October 28, 2009
Totally agree on Greg Smith
I’d have to hunt a while, but I posted something on the TEs around the start of fall camp. There, I said the fault at TE was nobody’s and that for bloggers and critics and fans to pick on No. 83 was terribly unfair.
The ongoing TE issue is this: If the coaches were comfortable with one player as a combo blocker/receiver, that guy would be playing. Full time. Because they aren’t doing that, the offense is predictable. When Smith is out there, the chances of run vs. pass tilt toward running. When Buckner plays, it’s much more likely the pass is coming. Bluntly, Buckner is not much of a blocker. Smith has OK hands but is not a field-stretcher. Neither is a bad option — but it does give the defense (notably the safety matched up with the TE) a sense of what’s coming.
Something I’d like to see, on occasion is for us go double TE, sticking Britt Mitchell and Smith at TEs, and telling the defense, “Here we come. Have at it.” You’d do this for 4-5 plays, hurry-up, not even the delay while the play is signaled in from the sideline.
edsp - October 28, 2009
Greg Smith is playing most of the time
Nowadays the only time Buckner comes in is on obvious passing downs. Greg is in the rest of the downs (te vast majority of the time).
It is funny how effective hurry up is for power running. I guess the D is not ready because it sure seems to work.
Kafka - October 28, 2009
Good Bits
I think we can all agree that the deep ball has all but vanished this year. The yac with Quan last year was much stronger and opened up defensive coverages, but outside of Buckner and Shipley, who has had a deep route thrown their way? The lack of Collins and the disengagement of Williams has hurt us in this category. I still look for Goodwin to stretch the field and Colt to launch one 60 yards to a wide open number 84. I also look for number 9 to go Red Raider 08 on some folks.
orangetower - October 28, 2009
Against OU
Colt threw a deep ball to Goodwin that he caught out of bounds. But you are correct, I believe that is it.
Wescott Eberts (GoBR) - October 28, 2009
depends on how you define a "deep ball"
Shipley had a 70+ yarder vs ULM and a 49 yarder on the double move vs Colorado. The last TD to Shipley and the one to Chiles against Missouri didn’t cover that many yards, but both were passes over the top of coverage to men running past the CB up the sideline. At another position on the field, they would have constituted deep balls. But overall, the deep pass hasn’t been a part of UT’s toolkit since 2006, which incidentally, was the last time Texas was a run-first team. I anticipate more of waht we saw in Missouri as the team makes more of a commitment to the run.
burnt in ny - October 28, 2009
Yeah...
I would consider both of those as deep balls, but again it was to Shopley and Buckner.
I forgot about the ou pass to Goodwin. It was a freshman route and a great learning opoortunity as Goodwin ran too close to the sideline not leaving an alley to work with for adjustment or a backshoulder opp. Nevertheless it did stretch the field and DB’s had to soften for the potential threat.
orangetower - October 28, 2009
...Shipley...
My proof glasses are fogged up today.
orangetower - October 28, 2009
Game 7 vs. Game 13
Interesting data for sure, but I think this would have been a little more meaningful if you compared last year after 7 games vs. this year after 7 games, and not last year after 13 games, vs. this year 7 games.
If you look at all the other stats, other than this one, and the pct completion, and INT, all others seem somewhat on pace to match last year.
His numbers should improve with the likes of Okie Lite, Baylor, Kansas and UCF ahead of us.
MikeWinAustin - October 28, 2009
Congrat PB
There’s a link to this article on the home page for College Football on CBSsports.com, accompanied by a Dennis Dodd article on how defenses are catching up with the Spread offense.
You’ve gone global!
patienthornsfan - October 28, 2009
That happened a few weeks ago too...
With the Race for the Roses article I wrote. Happened to fit in with something the CBS guys were writing about.
BON: capturing the zeitgeist!
billyzane - October 28, 2009
Does CBS own SBN? Or is it just that you guys are such good writers they’re taking advantage of a good (free) thing?
patienthornsfan - October 28, 2009
They don't own it.
I don’t know the details, but I believe it’s some sort of marketing arrangement. We’re partners of some sort.
billyzane - October 28, 2009
Amen brother.
patienthornsfan - October 28, 2009
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