Another weekend without any majors upsets and we have basically the same situation from a week ago. Florida, Texas, and Alabama are all in great position for a trip to Pasadena; Iowa somehow continues to win; and Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State are making their best pitches for national respect.
Nine weeks into the season and a surprising seven teams from six different conferences are still undefeated. As I mentioned last week, I am rooting for as much BCS chaos as possible. I would love to hear people justify the brilliance of the BCS if six teams are perfect and computers and voters, who still think Iowa is good, select the two of them who should play for the title. Or, and maybe just as likely, what if only one of Texas, Florida, and Alabama goes undefeated, and the BCS selects a one-loss team to take on the Longhorns over three or four other undefeated conference champions.
Only five more weeks until the BCS doesn't work again. I can hardly wait.
After the jump, a look at this week's Favorites, Contenders, and those that Need Help...
The Favorites:
1. Florida (8-0; BCS 1): After struggling in back to back weeks against Arkansas and Mississippi State, Florida finally looked the part with a convincing win over Georgia. Three of the Gators' final four are at home. The only road game remaining is a trip to South Carolina in a couple of weeks. I've been shocked before and every college football Saturday produces some surprises; however, it hard to see Florida not landing in the SEC title game undefeated.
Next Games: 11/7 Vanderbilt, 11/14 @ S. Carolina, 11/21 Fl. International
2. Texas (8-0; BCS 2): Same Saturday night television slot, same dominating performance from the Longhorns. It's pretty easy to win games when your defense scores as many points as it gives up. The road is more than paved for the ‘Horns. Texas will be at least 14 point favorites in each of their final four games and probably double digit favorites against whatever mediocre team the North spits out. I'm not afraid to admit that I've started looking for flights to Pasadena, and I recommend you do too.
Next Games: 11/7 UCF, 11/14 @ Baylor, 11/21 Kansas
3. Alabama (8-0; BCS 3): ‘Bama had the week off and has now played the same number of games as Florida and Texas. After needing to block a field goal to defeat Tennessee in Tuscaloosa last week and impressive performances by the Gators and the Longhorns on big stages, it is not hard to see why Alabama lost some votes in yesterday's polls. Tide fans better hope Grey McElroy found some confidence. Otherwise, I can see LSU shutting down a one-dimensional Alabama offense and ruining the dream SEC title game match-up.
Next Games: 11/7 LSU, 11/14 @ Miss State, 11/21 Chattanooga
The Contenders:
1. Iowa (9-0; BCS 4): The Hawkeyes do not look like title contenders. The best teams in the country do not fall behind to Indiana at home; they do not struggle against Arkansas State; and they do not need to block field goals to escape Northern Iowa. Don't worry ‘Horns fans, Iowa's time is about up. If Northwestern doesn't get them this weekend, Ohio State should be able to take them down next Saturday. And even if their luck does continue, no objective college football fan would put them in the same category as the top three, or about five or six other teams for that matter. Iowa is not finishing in the top two in the BCS.
Next Games: 11/7 Northwestern, 11/14 @ Ohio State, 11/21 Minnesota
2. LSU (7-1; BCS 9): I really like this spot for the Tigers. After losing to Florida, the media moved on. It is been all about Florida, Alabama, and Texas mostly and about those other undefeated teams next. No one is talking about LSU. Les Miles club took a week off after their lone defeat, then dominated Auburn, and just held Tulane scoreless in a 41-0 rout. Sure, it was Tulane, but shutouts against anyone are impressive. If LSU wins this weekend, where would you rank them? 3rd? 4th?
Next Games: 11/7 @ Alabama, 11/14 La Tech, 11/21 @ Mississippi
Need Help:
1. Cincinnati (8-0; BCS 5): Still no Tony Pike, still no problem. Cincy traveled to Syracuse and outlasted Greg Paulus and the Orangeman, 28-7. The Bearcats' next three are all at home. West Virginia will be a tough game but realistically, only a season ending trip to Pittsburgh stands in the way an undefeated season. A second straight BCS game is highly likely.
Next Games: 11/7 Connecticut, 11/13 West Virginia, 11/21 Bye
2. TCU (8-0; BCS 6): TCU is the best team no one is talking about. The Horned Frogs dominated UNLV, 41-0, and continue to field an elite defensive unit. Only Texas State has scored more than 17 points on TCU this season.
Next Games: 11/7 @ San Diego, 11/14 Utah, 11/21 @ Wyoming
3. Oregon (7-1; BCS 8): I thought Oregon had a great shot to knock off USC but I never would have predicted 47 points and a 27 point win. The Ducks still have four conference games and are far from done. However, Oregon is in great shape for a trip to the Rose Bow as the lone undefeated Pac 10 club.
Next Games: 11/7 @ Stanford, 11/14 Arizona State, 11/21 @ Arizona
0 recs | 30 comments
florida's game in the last three weeks
florida needed a much needed penalty vs arkansas to beat them. the referee’s blew the call. sec apologizes. next game florida gets another call that should have been overturned on replay vs miss. state. when the florida defenders fumble return was knocked out before the goal line and miss. state palyer recovered. florida still would have won game but it would have been by single digits. now we have brandon spikes putting hands thru georgia’s players facemask and it looks like he is messing with the mans eye’s. they decide he needs a 1/2 game suspension. (i’m vomiting) not only is that suspension a joke they would not even need b.s. for the vandy game. they are favored by 5 td’s. texas do me a big favor. crush florida in pasadena by 4 td’s. i have had it with the sec and all it’s corruption. hook em horns!
wolfmanshowlforever - November 2, 2009
My guess is that if LSU won at Bama..
they would jump to 4th in the polls, just behind Iowa………but if they then were to win at Ole Miss and win a rematch against Florida……..they’d go ahead of the pack of potential other undefeated teams when the BCS got sorted out in the end.
silky51 - November 2, 2009
Not sure
I think, in that scenario, an undefeated Iowa, based on their strength with the computers, would go to Pasadena over a one-loss LSU.
Hopkins Horn - November 2, 2009
yikes...
It would be close for sure.
I still believe Iowa loses one of these last 3 games…..smoke and mirrors only go so far and its going to catch up with them in November.
silky51 - November 2, 2009
I agree that Iowa loses at least once . . .
. . . but then Cincinnati becomes the issue. Keep in mind that, on championship Saturday, we could also see a regular season game between an undefeated Cincinnati and a one-loss team Pittsburgh (fresh over a win over Notre Dame) for all the Big East marbles. Cincinnati wins that nationally-televised game (on the road, by the way) and their SOS goes up for the computers and they probably rise to a solid #3/#4 with the human polls. Computers like their teams undefeated a lot more than humans do, and that could be the difference to allow them to jump over a one-loss SEC champ.
Given that, I’d have LSU and Cincinnati in the same grouping in the OP — whether that’s more appropriately the “Contender” group of the “Needs Help” group, I can’t say.
I also think this is all just for theory’s sake right now, as I think we’re still much more likely than not going to get an undefeated SEC champ.
Hopkins Horn - November 2, 2009
Methinks an LSU win..
Moves them to #7-#8 territory. Kinda where Oregon is now… only they won’t have a Boise holding them back.
If they beat Florida in the SECCG, they’d be #3 or #2 with us/Tx at #1.
That would be VERY interesting. Florida wouldn’t drop too far because they already beat LSU. Texas is in as the #1 team in country. then its a crapshoot between one-loss LSU and all the undefeateds.
Orangechipper - November 2, 2009
While I believe that Alabama isn't as good as Florida
I would still prefer to play UF in the NCG for a few reasons. First, if Colt and the rest of the Longhorns can go out there and shut Tebow up, that would literally double the enjoyment of winning a national championship for me. Second, I think that if we played UF, we would have a distinct advantage in the fact that we have a coach (Boom) who has coached against, and defeated, Meyer before, while nobody on Florida’s staff has any experience coaching against Texas (as far as I know). Having that kind of extra insight into a team usually seems to reap great rewards (see: Miss St vs. Florida, Houston vs. Tech, etc.). I know Applewhite was at Bama, but I think they’ve changed schematically so much since he left that he wouldn’t be quite as much help as Muschamp will be against Florida. Finally, I think that if Bama continues to look mediocre and somehow beats Florida, we might be considered the favorite, while against Florida we will clearly be the #2 team, and I would rather our Longhorns have to listen to people talk about how good the team they are playing is, rather than how good they are, for a month before the game. Seemed to work against USC.
circa1015 - November 2, 2009
In the end, I believe there won't be any BCS Title game controversy
Florida vs Texas
silky51 - November 2, 2009
Yup.
Sunkist - November 2, 2009
If tOSU knocks off Iowa and Florida and Bama end up losing to LSU I would love it if somehow Oregon sneaks into the BCS CG. Can you imagine the howls from Boise State and football fans in general? Unfortunately I don’t think they have enough horsepower in their remaining games to vault them over TCU, Boise and Cincy.
patienthornsfan - November 2, 2009
In this scenario...
It has to be LSU, right? They’d have beaten Florida who gave them their only loss.
Orangechipper - November 2, 2009
BTW
How is Boise State not on your list of “need help”? Do you think they’re already out of it?
patienthornsfan - November 2, 2009
There's a ceiling for Boise below Pasadena
Despite the vigorous discussion in the other post about the relative strengths of Oregon and Boise, I don’t think there’s any chance in the world Boise could jump a one-loss SEC champ, regardless of whether the other unbeatens remain so. So I think Boise is correctly left off.
That being said, I don’t think Oregon has any chance of getting to the championship game so long as Boise remains unbeaten. As seen on the other thread (and elsewhere in college media this week), there will be enough voters who will not allow Oregon to jump an unbeaten Boise. An unbeaten TCU would be the beneficiary if Iowa and Cincinnati are knocked out of contention.
Hopkins Horn - November 2, 2009
Yes
They are done. I can’t think of a scenario that leads them to Pasadena. They would need every major conference champion but one (Texas) to have a loss plus to be thought of as better than a one-loss SEC champion plus somehow pass TCU. None of those three are going to happen.
awiggo - November 2, 2009
True
And if there’s any complaint about the BCS that’s valid, this is it. A team should not be eliminated from title contention before the season even starts, no matter how the team actually does, and yet that’s the reality for Boise State, TCU, and every other “mid-major” team. Hell, it’s almost true of Cincinnati as well.
If the people who voted USC and now Oregon ahead of Boise State have any self-respect, they should be calling for FBS to be sub-divided into two further subdivisions, each with its own championship, because it’s ridiculous that an undefeated Boise State gets jumped by a team it beat.
burntorangehorn - November 3, 2009
LSU knocking off Bama wouldn’t suprise me.
For historical reasons I’d like to play them.
Or Oregon for some Holiday Bowl payback.
But hypothetical for you, Iowa wins out (yeah, kinda far fetched), LSU take Bama and Fla,
Who do you see as our title game opponent?
echeese - November 2, 2009
Or Ioaw loses but Cincy wins out . . .
. . . as explained above . . .
Hopkins Horn - November 2, 2009
Cart before horse....
Yes I have been watching our games and yes our defense is about the best I have ever seen (give or take 15 years). But I don’t want to start talking Pasadena for another month. Don’t laugh, but Todd Reesing will do whatever it takes (if he is even starting by then) in a homecoming against a team that never recruited him. Also, since this year is basically playing out just like 2005, I was at that A&M game. Until that punt block/return by Micheal Griffin, we were all getting reeaall nervous. And the north is horrible, but ask Oklahoma how they felt about Kansas State in 2004. Do I think we lose any of these games? Hell no. But I also don’t want to start sizing up BCS opponents. I realize it is all hypothetical, and lets face it, Mack and Co. are not looking any farther than todays practice. Just my opinion.
BurnOut78 - November 2, 2009
Yes and especially Texas A&M. You cannot ignore the aggies we have beaten you in last two of the three meetings with much worse teams. Interesting you mentioned ‘car’. Out here in College Stations we still remember the ‘cart’ incident where your QB had to be carted away. Is he still your QB? Then you have a problem at the O-Line, which our D will chew in and spit out like a jerkey.
YUMC - November 2, 2009
Are you blind?
He never said car. And yeah Colt was carted off the field after Michael Bennett hit him helmet to helmet. If I was aTm I’d be more worried about what the Texas D can do than what aTm’s D can do.
seth78 - November 2, 2009
hey there rocket scientist
since you’re clearly incapable of even making a terrible forced insult pointing out how clever your red-headed stepchild school is coming up with nicknames, you might want to stick to your own boards and get back to having sex with sheep or making fun of gay people and democrats, or whatever else you do out there
drbadass - November 2, 2009
I for one...
am glad to have you around YUMC. Its been a while since any Aggie has had the balls to talk smack about Texas. Kinda makes me nostalgic for the 90’s, when A&M, and our “rivalry” with them, was still relevant. .
BrooklynHorn - November 2, 2009
LSU
If they did run the table then they’d be knocking off two of the top three teams in the nation, assuming Florida doesn’t get upset before then. I don’t think Iowa could prevent LSU from jumping them especially with the media being on fire for them after doing so. Iowa could complain all they want but beating, assuming they do, a top 20 Ohio State just isn’t as impressive as beating two of the top three. The media would beg to see if they could knock off Texas as well. Russell Sheppard vs Colt McCoy? I don’t think it will happen but it would be very interesting to watch it play out.
seth78 - November 2, 2009
All the IFs
are fun to think about right now, but odds are a wrench will be thrown in to have us re-assessing it all to some degree.
My thoughts on all of this are here, but to list a few quickly, I see this happening:
Bama beats LSU next week – Saban’s pissed about that Tenn game and has had two weeks to drive it home.
Bama beats Florida in the SEC game. They have impressed me more overall this season and assuming they get back to what we saw the first half, I expect to see them in the MNC.
Iowa will lose to OSU and end up in the Rose Bowl with Oregon.
TCU will win out and go to the Orange Bowl.
This is really hard to do and I’m sure I am missing some key components, so feel free to rip it up. I expect no less.
Infield Elephant - November 2, 2009
Ok since you are inviting feedback, one key component missing here is UT losing to A&M come Thankgiving and marching to the Cottonbowl. One loss A&M goes to the Big XII championship game and runs over the joke north division champ (whoever it might be) and wins the automatic berth to a BCS bowl. This is infact more realistic than Iowa losing to Ohio State or predicting the Bama-LSU outcome next week.
YUMC - November 2, 2009
Wow
I’ll let the wolves have you…
Infield Elephant - November 2, 2009
wait
real quick: are you really saying that A&M will win and so forth, or is that just a comparison to how wrong my predictions are?
Just want to make sure I’ve got your point straight.
Infield Elephant - November 2, 2009
He's not just a troll, he's a moronic troll
He signed up not just with BON yesterday, but the Ralphie Report as well, talking shit on the CU board. Unfortunately, it looks like RR has already deleted his juvenile taunts over there, so I can’t link to them.
Somehow, he believes that the rules of the Big XII are such that an A&M victory over Texas would allow an A&M team with two conference losses to advance to the championship game over a Texas team with one loss.
Plus, this gem:
You mean, a joke like Kansas State?
OK, I’m done feeding the troll.
Hopkins Horn - November 2, 2009
aggies, God bless 'em...
they’re nature’s way of reassuring us that we are, in fact, superior…
Pflash - November 2, 2009
Time to thin the herd. nt.
TXStampede - November 2, 2009
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