The regular season is over, and despite the few rumblings you may be hearing, the national title game match-up is set--Texas vs. Alabama. Even though the win was by a single point, a neutral field victory over Nebraska will actually help Texas in the computers. And there is no way that enough Harris poll voters and coaches will rank TCU or Cincinnati above the undefeated Big XII champions. It's just not going to happen.
That said, there is still a lot of BCS uncertainty. Let's quickly review the process. The top two teams in the final BCS poll head to the national title game. This year that game will be played in the Rose Bowl on January 7th. Five of the six BCS conferences have automatic tie-ins for their champions, who are not in the top two. ACC champ goes to the Orange Bowl, Big XII champ goes to the Fiesta Bowl, SEC champ goes to the Sugar Bowl, and the Big 10 and Pac-10 champs hook up in the Rose Bowl.
Since the Sugar and Fiesta will lose their tie-in teams, they will get first picks as replacement picks. The Sugar Bowl will pick first because ‘Bama will be #1 in the BCS standings. The no-brainer pick here is SEC runner-up, Florida. The Fiesta Bowl picks next and this is where it gets interesting. In my mind there are two options, a Big 10 team which will travel well or a geographically smart and undefeated TCU team. I can see the Fiesta going either way. Under either scenario, their next pick, which comes after a selection by the Orange Bowl, would be either Boise State or Cincinnati.
To play this out, assume the Fiesta takes TCU. That leaves us with-
BCS Title: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs.
Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs.
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs.
The rest after the jump...
The remaining picks go Orange, then Fiesta, and then Sugar. Cincinnati must be picked as Big East champs. The other two picks will be at-large selections. At-large selections must have nine wins and finish in the top 14 of the BCS standings. No conference may put more than two teams in BCS games. Under these rules Iowa and Penn State (Big 10), Boise State (WAC), Virginia Tech (ACC), and probably BYU (MWC) are the only possible choices. The field for these at-large picks slimmed considerably as Miami, Oklahoma State, USC, Stanford, and Pitt all faltered late.
I imagine the Orange Bowl takes a Big 10 team because of fan support and because Cincy played there last year. I also assume that the Orange values Iowa's head-to-head win over Penn State more than the love for Joe Pa, and takes the Hawkeyes.
The Fiesta then takes Boise State to match two undefeated non-BCS teams and because they probably don't envision fans coming in droves from Ohio to Glendale, AZ. Also, Cincy may not even have a coach by January.
The Sugar is left with Cincinnati.
BCS Title: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa
Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati
I won't be shocked if Penn State gets picked over Iowa, nor will I be shocked if somehow the TCU/Boise State game is avoided.
Other predictions: ESPN's Brad Edwards, CBSSports, Dennis Dodd, College Football News
0 recs | 41 comments
A pat on the back
Someone recognized early on that Cincinnati would be a player before it was all said and done. :)
Hopkins Horn - December 6, 2009
And a hat tip to 54b
who posted this right after your insightful Kreskin moment:
We have some darn fine precsient folks chiming in from time-to-time around here.
TXStampede - December 6, 2009
Patting your own back?
Isn’t tooting your own horn the more appropriate reference?
And considering that if Texas had lost then TCU is the most likely next in line, I don’t see why you are self-congratulating, considering that the post was solely about who would make the national championship game.
Wells - December 6, 2009
Tooting my own horn . . . just doesn't sound legal in a number of southern states
Hopkins Horn - December 6, 2009
I don’t think the Orange Bowl gives a crap about head-to-head or even who deserves it, I think they value the team that brings the most value.
KevinHD - December 6, 2009
Agreed
But they do care to the extent that the fans care. If they feel picking Penn State would alienate more TV viewers who felt Iowa got disrespected than the increase Penn State’s large fan base gives them, they they would pick Iowa.
Wells - December 6, 2009
Will people really tune out though?
I do agree that there is PR involved, but they’ve screwed much more deserving teams than Iowa, who has snuck by some pretty bad teams and has a loss to Northwestern. Penn State didn’t have a successful year by most accounts, but they never did lose to an unranked team and were convincing in every single one of their wins.
KevinHD - December 6, 2009
Northwestern's not exactly a bad team this year, you know
And while PSU was always convincing in their wins, they were also pretty convincing in their losses (Iowa’s were both down to the wire).
SpartanDan - December 6, 2009
I've had the discussion 100 times
and I’ll concede that Iowa is probably more “deserving”, but it’s WAY closer than anyone wants to admit.
Northwestern isn’t “bad”, but they are unranked with a loss the Cuse. And while Iowa was close in their losses, they were also very close in many of their wins against poor teams.
KevinHD - December 6, 2009
really? penn st?
even though Iowa lost to northwestern…they barely lost to ohio st in ot…penn st wasn’t even present for their game against ohio st…Iowa even had a back up qb…Penn St. is deserving…but not before Iowa…until Iowa lost their starting qb..they were undefeated..and i believe they would still would be had they not lost ricky stanzi late in the season…even so..their backup showed and played hard with no experience against Ohio St. and almost won…Iowa is still by far the better team this year….
letty - December 6, 2009
Northwestern is a very good team
don’t hate. We lost to Penn State after we lost our heart and soul quarterback in the first half. we went in leading the 1st half. We did lose to cuse and minnesota, but it was a slip up…
Northwestern closed out strong with wins over Iowa AND Wisco and 3-0 in november.
NU Texas Fan - December 6, 2009
I don't think they give a crap about head-to-head either,
but to finish the post and predictions, I had to make some assumptions. If I’m the Orange Bowl, I take Iowa. However, as I mention at the end of the post, I will not be surprised if Penn State is the pick.
I would also not be surpised if the Big 10 at-large is the replacement pick instead of TCU. In that case, the Orange would take TCU and then the Fiesta would choose either Boise St or Cincy.
awiggo - December 6, 2009
I think TCU and BSU are a done deal for the Fiesta.
I’ve read probably 12 bowl projections this morning and every single one of them that has commentary is saying something exactly like you just did above. It’s truly a toss up and no one seems to be able to convince themselves either way.
KevinHD - December 6, 2009
Ohio to Glendale, AZ
You don’t envision fans from Ohio going in droves from Ohio to Glendale, AZ? You must not of watched the Fiesta Bowl in 2003 when Ohio State beat the University of Miami. I was at that game. It was scarlet and gray everywhere. And this year, Ohio State isn’t even the best team in Ohio. I also went to the Orange Bowl last year. Red and black everywhere. Cincinnati CAN travel.
CinciKid - December 6, 2009
Ohio State has a bit bigger fan base than Cincy
SpartanDan - December 6, 2009
Not Even Sure Cincy Has a Fan Base
They cannot sell out a below standard Division I stadium. It is somewhat sad, born a Buckeye, that state only has bandwidth to root for 2 universities. The Buckeyes and whoever is beating Michigan that week.
realmccoy - December 6, 2009
Cincinnati is not Ohio State
awiggo - December 6, 2009
Honestly, I hope we do NOT get Boise/TCU
Just for the fact, if they play each other and we win. I do not want to hear the BCS hatters come in here during our moment of victory bitching about how they are still undefeated and there should be a split title.
Silentjay - December 6, 2009
I don't want to see that matchup either, but for a different reason
It gives the haters an opportunity to say “whatever, they’d both have been smacked down if they played a Real Team™”. I don’t want to see that happen unless they actually do get smacked down.
SpartanDan - December 6, 2009
I want TCU/Florida, however unlikely.
It makes me think of Utah’s mauling of Bama last year & why not make Tebow cry one more time… you know, just since it’ll be his last opportunity.
JoanerHorn - December 6, 2009
No more wins for Texas
After what I witnessed last night – Texas couldn’t beat Alabama’s second string without the help of biased officials. No more wins for Texas this year. And don’t be surprised if UT isn’t selected for the Title game.
CHANEYJM - December 6, 2009
I totally agree
I can’t wait for ESPN’s recap of the best teams in the history of college football. I believe Alabama deserves to be solidly in the top 5, right below a legendary 2005 USC team… These longhorns are SO outmatched, they don’t even deserve to be in the same COUNTRY as this elite SEC team. I mean seriously, when has a Texas team ever overcome a team nearly as phenomenal a team as Alabama?
Oh right rose bowl, 2005.
NU Texas Fan - December 6, 2009
sarcaism or real stupidity?
Jeremy Mauss - December 6, 2009
Stupid
And wrong.
thirtyand0 - December 6, 2009
Better trolls, please.
jglowack - December 6, 2009
Agreed
I agree with troll. I can guarantee that Texas will not win another game in 2009.
WanderingHorn - December 6, 2009
Nice Catch
realmccoy - December 6, 2009
Boise vs. TCU
That would be a disservice to those schools. Not to mention that this game happened last year in the Poinsettia Bowl, I am still sticking with my gut that TCU will be in the Sugar playing Florida while Iowa/Penn State will face Boise in the Fiesta Bowl.
Also, the Fiesta bowl is going to get top notch rankings from a Big 10 especially if it is Penn State, while a Boise/TCU matchup will have interest but not the overall rating power
Jeremy Mauss - December 6, 2009
I agree totally
We need the non-BCS schools to have a chance at playing the big boys. Playing each other in a prettied-over Poinsetta Bowl doesn’t do anyone any good.
Hopkins Horn - December 6, 2009
yes!!
I have read that those will be matched up all day. But TV is king and why would the Fiesta take that matchup when they get to pick after the Sugar for their replacement I see no good reason not to take Penn State or Iowa.
Jeremy Mauss - December 6, 2009
Big 10
In order to avoid TCU/Boise State, the Fiesta will have to take Penn State or Iowa with their first “replacement pick.” That could happen but they are still going to get Boise, cause the Orange would likely take TCU in front of their next pick.
awiggo - December 6, 2009
Very true
only way TCU goes is if they get picked over Boise with the second Fiesta pick. But the Fiesta and Sugar would want regional teams which is why Boise is heading to Fiesta and TCU to Sugar.
Jeremy Mauss - December 6, 2009
You're assuming that the Orange takes Cincy
In any other year, I would agree with you but since they played in Miami last year, I don’t see that as the pick.
If the Fiesta takes TCU, then the Orange gets a Big 10 school of their choice.
If the Fiesta takes a Big 10 schook, then the Orange takes TCU.
awiggo - December 6, 2009
I am assuming that the Orange takes Cincy
The Big East was tied to the Orange
Jeremy Mauss - December 6, 2009
Guarantee You a PSU BCS Berth
Book it Dan O. The lore of the winningnest coach of all time and that fan base just too big of a draw.
realmccoy - December 6, 2009
According to a blog (credit to Silentjay on another FP)...
Iowa to the Fiesta, PSU to the Capital One Bowl.
http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/2009/12/psu_sources_indicate_its_capon.html
utlonghorn24 - December 6, 2009
I honestly just don't think people would tune in for TCU vs Boise
The Fiesta needs to get a different match up than what most people are predicting. I think it would be an amazing game, but I don’t think people are going to tune in to watch TCU and Boise. They need one other big name team in those games to balance it out and reach out to a bigger fan base.
Darklust - December 6, 2009
Could VaTech sneak in?
Honestly, I don’t see the Fiesta Bowl NOT picking a Big Ten team to ensure some kind of gate. A TCU-Boise St. matchup (or even a TCU-Cincy matchup, more on that in a second) will not sell that stadium out.
But what IF the Fiesta Bowl picks TCU? Then the Orange Bowl almost certainly takes PSU/Iowa. The Sugar has the next pick. They can pick VaTech, Cincy or Boise. THey are already going to have a disappointed Fla Gators team. Why not ensure some gate and grab VaTech who would travel in droves?
Then the Fiesta has to pick Cincy and Boise St. gets left out. Plus we get the TCU-Cincy matchup, which I think would be great.
If TCU has to play Boise again, that will be awful. Unless Petersen just outcoaches TCU like he did last year in the Poinsettia (only reason that game was close), TCU would do to Boise what they did to Utah and BYU.
I am booked for Pasadena!! Hook ’em!!
A-Tex Devil - December 6, 2009
Possible, not probable
You also have the picking order wrong.
In your scenario:
Replace 1: Sugar (Florida)
Replace 2: Fiesta (TCU)
Orange to play Ga Tech (PSU/Iowa)
Fiesta to play their first pick (Boise, Va Tech, or Cincy)
Sugar to place their first pick (Boise, Va Tech, or Cincy)
Cincinnati must get picked.
awiggo - December 6, 2009
Gotcha
Fiesta Bowl might pick Boise ahead of Va Tech. I just don’t see the Fiesta passing on the Big Ten with its first pick. Then it falls out pretty neatly assuming the ORange Bowl doesn’t want Cincy again.
A-Tex Devil - December 6, 2009
Honestly
I agree. There has been a lot of hype about a potential TCU/Boise match-up.I don’t know if it will happen though.
If I want to sell tickets and get ratings, then the Fiesta really does need to pick Penn State or Iowa.
awiggo - December 6, 2009
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