SB Nation - Login for mobile commenting

Burnt Orange Nation

Wait 'Til Next Year

It's a refrain more worthy of a Chicago Cubs fan than a Longhorn baseball fan. As Augie Garrido says repeatedly, Omaha is the minimum expectation for his baseball team. His statements explain the massive disappointment felt by fans after Wednesday's loss to LSU in the CWS Finals, even though the Longhorns had failed to make it to Omaha since 2005.

As much as the failure against LSU still stings, the refrain mentioned above is the cooling, healing salve that will help remove that sting in the grueling, barren landscape of the off-season. Wait 'til next year. The reason is simple -- the 2010 version of Texas baseball could be even better than the thrilling, yet flawed, Heart-Attack Horns of this season.

Star-divide

Key Departures

The Longhorns will miss several key players who contributed to this year's team, especially the leadership of seniors like Preston Clark, Keith Shinaberry, and Austin Wood. Travis Tucker and Michael Torres, also seniors, were the table-setters at the top of the order and both provided a steadying presence in the lineup. Junior Brandon Belt, drafted in the fifth round by the San Fransisco Giants, was the best hitter for most of the season until completely losing his ability to hit fastballs and looking terrible at the plate for most of the post-season and is universally expected to sign with the Giants.

Drafted Signees

Texas signed some excellent players in the 2010 baseball recruiting class, but several of them probably will not make it to campus.The Longhorns will be excellent regardless of which players do decide to attend college, but players like Everett Williams and Colton Cain could be the pieces that put Texas over the top.

Everett Williams, the outfielder from Austin, was always projected as a top draft pick and ended up going in the second round to the Paedres, lower than expected, still probably still high enough to sign. There is little chance that he ever suits up as a Longhorn, though that might be increasing, as there are whispers that the idea of going to college is growing on him. The risk for Williams is that he's a toolsy player, but strikes out too much and doesn't do anything exceptionally, meaning that he could be somewhat exposed as a college player and hurt his stock.

Jacob Cowan, a right-hander from San Jacinto Junior College, fell further in the draft than expected (10th round), but will likely sign because he doesn't have a guaranteed spot in the weekend rotation and has some qualification concerns.

Left-handed pitcher/first baseman Colton Cain may be the most interesting story to follow. Regarded by many as a Top 40 high school talent, Cain fell to the eighth round because of signability concerns. However, the team that picked him, the Pirates, will have a huge impact on whether or not he makes it to Texas. After drafting Tony Sanchez in the first round, Pittsburgh saved several million dollars and is aggressively looking to add minor-league depth as an organization. The well-above slot demands of Cain for a signing bonus of around one million dollars may not be high enough to scare the Pirates away.

Likewise, right-hander Josh Urban also fell to the 19th round because of similar signability concerns, but Urban was also drafted by the Pirates and fits the power-pitcher profile that GM Neil Huntington loves, meaning he could end up signing if given a big bonus as well.

The other players drafted are expected to attend college, a group that includes catcher Jonathan Walsh, who may have a chance to play first base if Belt leaves and Cain signs, right-hander Keifer Nuncio, catcher Nick de Santiago, outfielder Cohl Walla, and left-hander Hoby Milner. Of those players, Walsh is the most likely to sign, but concerns about his ability behind the plate dropped him in the draft, as well as his strong desire to play at Texas.

Key Replacements

  • Kevin Lusson, third base: Little Lusson was impressive in his limited opportunities as a freshman, hitting .310 with four doubles and 11 RBI in only 42 at-bats. Perhaps even more impressive was his strikeout to walk ratio -- 5:15, good for a .491 OBP. The switch-hitter is expected to step in at third base for Michael Torres and was simply a catalyst for the offense when he played, scoring 13 runs on the season. I didn't see enough of Lusson to get a good read on his range, but the Longhorn coaches could also look at him at second base if no other candidate emerges and give Tan Shepherd another shot at third.
  • Jordan Etier, second base: Since the Longhorns didn't sign a true infielder in the 2010 class, they will probably have to look for a replacement already on the team. Etier will likely have the first shot at the job. It's hard to take much from his small sample size as a freshman, but Etier was not particularly impressive, recording four hits in 15 at-bats, none for extra bases, while striking out four times. The Longhorns could also look at David Hernandez at second base, though he has struggled with his fielding at Texas and has a major hole in his swing (anything inside). Much like the coaches did after the 2007 season when they brought in Hernandez and Torres, they could look for a transfer to fill in at second base.
  • Cohl Walla, left field: Preston Clark started in left field throughout much of the post-season after both Tan Shepherd and David Hernandez struggled to hold down the position. Walla, the former favorite target of Garrett Gilbert before giving up football to focus on baseball has the athleticism to play center field, but will probably be given a look in left field to start out, as Connor Rowe's defense in center field was excellent for most of the season. Walla may help the Longhorns produce better offensively at that position, as he hit .371 and showed some pop with eight home runs during his senior season at Lake Travis. Tant Shepherd and David Hernandez may also compete for his position.
  • Brandon Workman, closer: Since Chance Ruffin, Cole Green, and Taylor Jungmann seem entrenched as the weekend starters, Workman may get the first shot at the closer's role. With his 95-97 mph fastball, he has the most protoypical closer's stuff on the team. However, Workman will have to develop better control before he can be trusted as a closer and will probably need to develop another pitch to throw for strikes besides his curveball, with often flattens out and spins when he tries to back-door hitters.
  • Sam Stafford and Andrew McKirahan, left-handed specialists: Perhaps the greatest flaw in the 2009 team was the lack of reliable left-handers out of the bullpen, a deficiency glaringly exposed by the LSU Tigers and their  cadre of left-handed hitters. After Austin Wood, the Longhorns had no one, as the other main option, Keith Shinaberry, dealth with shoulder problems for much of the year and never had particularly good stuff to begin with. McKirahan made 11 appearances, but struggled with an ERA of 5.68, giving up 17 hits in 12.2 innings and walking seven batters. Sam Stafford redshirted this season and may have even better stuff than McKirahan, as Kirk Bohls reports the the lefty is hitting 95 mph with his fastball in summer ball in California. Freshman Hoby Milner will also have plenty of opportunities to earn a role on the staff, while former starter Riley Boening is a long-shot to contribute after shoulder surgeries.

The case for improvement

The 2009 team had no experience in the College World Series. Now, this group of players knows what it takes to beat the best teams in the country. Their experience this season will give them the confidence in themselves to take the next step as players, as well as the hunger to return to complete their unfinished business. Augie Garrido spends a lot of time talking about nebulous concepts like confidence and baseball spirituality and if the incredible post-season run this year proved anything, it is that this team possesses all those intangibles in spades.

With Kevin Keyes, Cameron Rupp, and the rejuvenated Russell Moldenhauer anchoring the middle of the lineup, the 3-4-5 spots on the 2010 team will be incredibly difficult to navigate. Throughout the season, Keyes improved his approach at the plate considerably, cutting down on his swing to reduce his strikeouts and greatly improving his pitch selection. If he can continue to make those improvements, Keyes could find himself frequenting the nightmares of opposing pitchers. Rupp found his power stroke in the CWS, hitting three huge home runs in Omaha and challenging Keyes for the title of player with the most raw power on the team. Moldenhauer finally started tapping into the talent that made him a third-round draft pick out of high school and may have finally found his hitting strike. If he can remain dialed in at the plate throughout the summer and fall, he could be a much-needed left-handed presence in the lineup next season. Remember, as well, that Moldy hit .350 as a sophomore, a fact often forgotten during his struggles this season.

That leaves the pitching staff. And what a wonderful staff it will be. If Taylor Jungmann commits himself to gaining strength, the velocity on his fastball could improve by several miles per hour, which would probably make him the closest thing to unhittable in college baseball. Chance Ruffin will remain excellent, but needs to focus on keeping his pitches down in the zone more consistently in order to reduce the number of home runs he allows. Cole Green simply needs to build on his strong performances against Southern Miss and Arizona State in the CWS.

Where the Longhorns should be much improved is in the bullpen. Losing only Austin Wood, and with several incoming pitchers who should be able to contribue right away -- Josh Urban, Keifer Nuncio, and Hoby Milner -- Skip Johnson will have many more options at the end of games, a major problem in the CWS when Austin Dicharry couldn't control his pitches and Austin Wood lost his magic. And not just reasonable options like most teams have -- sidearm right-handers throwing batting-practice fastballs, for instance -- the Longhorns will have some seriously talented arms in the bullpen. The biggest question is whether any of them will actually get a chance to pitch on the weekends with the excellent starting pitching.

The defense should remain constant, with critical pieces like Brandon Loy and Connor Rowe returning, as well as a true third baseman in Kevin Lusson stepping in at the hot corner. Another area where the Longhorns should improve immensely is offensively, as Kevin Keyes and Cameron Rupp make jumps in their developments and talented youngsters like Walsh, a switch hitter, Cohl Walla, and possibly Colton Cain, a lefty with prodigious power, join the fold. Playing at home in UFCUDFF, they probably won't continue to mash like they did in Omaha, but the home run totals should go up next season.

So, just wait 'til next year. And until then, the Longhorns might just have some pretty talented athletes on the football field and basetkball court to help pass the time.

0 recs  |  44 comments

Comments

Hook'em

I have to admit that if there is any upside to losing it is that in Ohio I can say, “Well as they say in Ohio, ‘better to be in the championship game and lose than not to be in it at all.’” I have been hearing that too much up here over the years, and if is fun to watch them cringe when they hear it said that way.

Nice write up. Football Championship, Final Four and then back to Omaha. It is going to be a great year!

We could one up Florida

if we held the football, basketball, and baseball titles all in the same academic year.

Etier

I’m a big believer in him at 2B and I would argue that it’s hard to get any real indicator of his hitting ability based on a dozen or so ABs. I would also guess that Tant will be the favorite to win the LF position, at least early in the season. But if his hitting doesn’t come around to where it should be, look out…

Also

Great write-up :-) Should make next year’s preview all that much easier.

+1 on your Shepherd comment

I see him as the 1B in ’10, maybe the DH . . . in baseball terms, a 52-game regular season is awfully short . . . I think he steps up big time next year. I do worry about defense at 1B and 2B.

no more tant shepherd

ever. please.

Does Maitland not get a chance?

There was no mention of him.

Good call

He had some big hits this season (just not a ton of them)

I haven't seen much from Maitland.

He could be an answer at the top of the order if he can slap the ball around and bunt for base hits. His scouting report from high school sounds promising, in that he made contact, hit line drives and sprayed the ball. During his senior year, he hit .469 with six home runs and for roughly the same average the previous year, with less power. Encouraging numbers, so maybe there is something there with him.

Parallel to football '04 and '05?

OK, so remember the year of VY’s first great Rose Bowl triumph? The team struggled throughout the year to establish its identity and flow. There were several ridiculous come-from-behind victories. Because of these, fans went to a bizarre “in VY we trust” place, knowing that this incredible athlete could accomplish anything.

The Rose Bowl game capped off an amazing season. No, there wasn’t a national championship. But it was a beautiful ending, and there was so very much promise for the next year.

And then came the national championship run. Sure, there were still some close games and come-from-behind victories. But the team played with more leadership, poise and a sense of controlled confidence than had been seen since the 60s.

Makes you wonder ….

Russell Moldenhauer equals

Ligitness. Not a revelation statement, but I feel like this guy will explode next year. And enough with this magic talk, I feel like referring to the teams success as magical is kinda…feminine.

Room to improve

Good as they were, this team also had some glaring weaknesses that were exposed in the CWS. Obviously, the hitting needs to improve. Our guys playing at their best were still utterly outclassed by ASU. Moldenhaur, Rupp, and Keyes need to be consistent throughout the season. On defense, we need to Loy get his glove on the ball more often. He has a good arm and great quickness, but lets too many get through. And Rupp simply has no business behind the plate. At least the pitching should be awesome, but we have to cut down on the walks, especially to lead off hitters. Finally, if all the bunting makes Augie happy, then OK. But forget small ball at the top of the lineup.

As I have observed before, college baseball is not very good baseball. But we could play better than we do.

I'll trust Augie's judgement!
Yeah you are right HC

You should never second guess a successful coaching staff’s judgement. You never do that on this site. (the sheer weight of the scarcasm is making it difficult to continue typing)

The fact that you....

don’t recognize the difference is laughable.

Augie = 5

Mack = 1

So a coach who has won five championships in thirteen more seasons than Mack Brown has coached is beyond reproach, but a guy who has more wins than any other coach in the nation since taking the helm of the UT football program is not?

Look, I’m a big Augie fan, but your standard is ridiculous. UT has won one conference and one national championship under Mack Brown, but the fact is that the Big 12 is a lot tougher in football than in baseball, and the strategic disadvantage in running a program that actually holds its student-athletes to standards (unlike the ones run by Stoops or Meyer) is a lot tougher in football than in baseball.

why are we arguing this?

We have both of them and both of them have jobs for life.

I’m arguing it because he gives one a free pass on everything, but not the other, and the standards he apparently uses are ridiculous. Neither should get a reproach-free card or the benefit of the doubt on anything, because they’re fallible humans, but there’s a certain degree of deference that each has earned.

Another hint for you....

…..In a 64-team playoff system, conference strength means virtually zero.

Especially when you play a challenging OOC schedule.

Of course when you play a really weak OOC schedule and win only 1 Conf.Championship, well…… you get the idea.

So for you, the singular reason to have any deference for a coach is if he’s won five national championships?

texas really doesn't have room to talk about standards for student-athletes

see williams, ricky; kindle, sergio

Until Urban Meyer has 10 players arrested in one off-season, or gets a DWI (Augie?), he doesn’t deserve any criticism from texas fans.

This list is pretty compelling evidence that Meyer is giving it the old college try.

Also, Ricky didn’t have legal problems at Texas. If you’re looking for a miscreant Texas RB, Benson and Taylor are better targets. Oh, and let me know when Brown lets a player who fires an assault rifle in a parking garage back on the team.

Swing and a miss. Meyer has had 24 athlete arrests as of June 4th, including felony burglary, domestic violence, felony battery, and of course Jamar Hornsby’s classic move: felony theft and fraudulent use of a dead girl’s credit card. And at least Mack dismissed Johnson, Jones, Taylor, etc.

And as others have pointed out, please explain what Ricky Williams did at UT that was so bad. He was a model player there. And Benson’s lone incident, as far as I know, was beating down the door of a punk thief who had stolen Benson’s television.

Benson had an MIP arrest IIRC

Not exactly nefarious

Cole Green

I don’t think he’s good enough to be a starter. He allows too many people to reach base, and he gets hit rather hard.

Jungman (sp?) is the #1, and Ruffin is #2. I think Texas needs another dominate starter to lock up a championship.

the hitting needs to get better as well

Cole Green: 7.0 IP 6 hits 3 earned runs 1 BB
Cole Green: 6.0 IP 8 hits 2 earned runs 3 BB
He can pitch.

Seriously

He’s certainly got room to grow, but with Ruffin and Jungmann as obvious starters he may be the best Sunday starter in the country.

yeah

When I watched him pitch in the post season, he just didn’t seem like he was on the same level as Jungman and Ruffin. I also didn’t care too much for Disharry (spelling?).

He matched Leake's stats exactly

in that game against Arizona State. The point isn’t about comparing his stuff to Jungmann and Ruffin, the point is that he’s one of the best third starters in the country, as 40AS. It’s not fair to compare his stuff to Jungmann because Jungmann has some of the best stuff in college baseball and good enough stuff that had he gone pro he could conceivably have played in the majors by probably not later than 2011, with a likely shot in a bullpen somewhere next year. He’s that good.

I know Dicharry didn't have the finest Omaha trip

But seriously look big picture. In 25 appearances he gave up 5 earned runs. He’s a freshman. I get the feeling that we’ll see him as the long reliever next year, kinda in the role that Jungmann had for most of this year.

2 stud starting pitchers is enough for a championship team

I had a buddy who told me he didn’t trust Green before the last game. However, as GBR pointed out his stats in the CWS, they were pretty good.
I don’t see Cole Green as somebody who’s gonna throw a no-hitter or be a #1 starter, but he’s a pretty damn good #3 to have starting for us.

You know who can throw a no-hitter?

This guy

I think Green’s best suited to be a middle reliever, but I think he makes a solid starter when needed. I’d like to see him as the fourth starter, though.

agree

Texa needs one more dominate starter.

Cosby

Why didn’t he play baseball in college? He could’ve really helped the team like Mitchell and Harris helped LSU.

Prohibited because he was no longer an "amateur"
Assuming Workman closes

who is the midweek starter? Carillo?

Probably one of the freshman

or Dicharry, who started a few midweek games this last year.

A tad soon for that discussion :-)

Carillo is one, Sam Stafford or Andrew McKirahan are two others. Stafford’s stuff is supposed to be incredible. Also Stayton Thomas.

Probably could have used Stafford

during that LSU series. Redshirting pitchers with good stuff doesn’t seem to make a ton of sense to me, especially considering that the clock continues to tick on their draft eligibility. Bohls said he was in Cali playing recently, so was he even with the team at the end of the year or was he playing in another league somewhere? Does that kind of thing happen? If he had a chance to play more and develop instead of mostly riding the pine, it makes sense, I guess.

I'll second that

we could not get outs at key junctures in Game 1 & Game 3. We’re losing good players to attrition (draft, etc.) all the time. When I heard that it raised my eyebrows & similar questions.

So...

Augie going with the guys that had gotten us to Omaha over a freshman with 2.2 IP and an ERA over 10 was a bad move? Can you imagine the second guessing if Stafford had been put in and lost? Stafford’s a great talent, but his presence wasn’t needed in Omaha.

Should have checked to see if Stafford had pitched before I started talking,

apparently Bohls was wrong about him redshirting. Looks like Stafford really needs to work on his control, as he walked six batters and hit another in those 2.2 innings. A 95-mph fastball doesn’t mean much if a guy can’t keep it in the strike zone.

You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Burnt Orange Nation to post a comment.