At about this time last summer, I decided to look closely at Texas' scoring drives during the 2007 conference season. I was motivated by the loss of Jamaal Charles, Limas Sweed, and Jermichael Finley to the NFL -- concerned that without its top three big playmakers, Colt McCoy and the 'Horns might have trouble putting six on the board.
With Charles, Finley, and a half-season of Sweed in 2007, a Texas touchdown drive in Big 12 play averaged 7.2 plays, covered 67.2 yards (at 9.3 yards per play), and tallied six points on a scoring play averaging 20.0 yards. Drives that ended in field goals averaged 9 plays and covered 54 yards (6.0 yards per play), with an average field goal distance of 38.9.
How would Colt McCoy fare a season later, without any proven playmakers? Find out after the jump.
First, a few notes on the data below: Garbage time drives are ignored; the drives charted below represent only those when Texas left McCoy in the game, and appeared to be attempting to move the football. All McCoy rushes are treated as rushes, whether a scramble or designed run. Sacks are charted as pass plays. The non-conference games are not included. Totals and notes follow the charts. Charts? Oh, yes: charts.
| Quarter | Score | Plays | Rush | Pass | Yards | Result | Score (Yards) | Player | Yds/Play (Drive) | Longest Play |
| 1 | Tie | 3 | 0 | 3 | 69 | TD | PASS (65) | OGBONNAYA | 23.0 | PASS, 65 |
| 1 | +7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 80 | TD | PASS (16) | SHIPLEY | 8.0 | PASS, 23 |
| 2 | +14 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 66 | TD | RUSH (13) | OGBONNAYA | 8.3 | PASS, 16 |
| 3 | +21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | TD | RUSH (1) | JOHNSON | 4.5 | PASS, 10 |
| 3 | +21 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 71 | TD | RUSH (4) | JOHNSON | 17.8 | RUSH, 51 |
| AVG | 5.8 | 2.6 |
3.2 |
60.8 | 2 Pass (40.5) | 10.5 | ||||
| 3 Rush (6.0) | ||||||||||
| 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | FG | FG (46) |
LAWRENCE | 2.0 | RUSH, 6 | |
| AVG | 8 | 4 |
4 |
16 | 46.0 | 2.0 | ||||
| 1 | +14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 42 | INT | 6.0 | PASS, 15 | ||
| 2 | +14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | PUNT | 3.0 | RUSH, 5 | ||
| 2 | +14 |
5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | PUNT | 1.8 | PASS, 9 | ||
| 3 | +21 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 38 | PUNT | 3.2 | PASS, 11 | ||
| 3 | +28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | INT | 0.0 | N / A | ||
| AVG | 5.6 | 2.4 |
3.2 |
19.6 | 3.5 |
OKLAHOMA (DALLAS)
| Quarter | Score | Plays | Rush | Pass | Yards | Result | Score (Yards) | Player | Yds/Play (Drive) | Longest Play |
| 2 | -11 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 80 | TD | RUSH (1) | JOHNSON | 23.0 | PASS,19 |
| 3 | -8 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 89 | TD | PASS (2) | SHIPLEY | 7.4 | RUSH, 30 |
| 4 | -5 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 74 | TD | RUSH (1) | JOHNSON | 9.3 | PASS, 37 |
| 4 | +3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 80 | TD | RUSH (2) | JOHNSON | 13.3 | RUSH, 62 |
| AVG | 9.5 | 4.3 |
5.2 |
80.1 | 1 Pass (2.0) | 8.5 | ||||
| 3 Rush (1.3) | ||||||||||
| 1 | -7 |
10 | 4 | 6 | 57 | FG | FG (26) |
LAWRENCE | 5.7 | PASS, 25 |
| 2 | -4 |
5 | 1 | 4 | 51 | FG | FG (33) |
LAWRENCE | 10.2 | PASS, 36 |
| 3 | -1 |
4 | 3 | 1 | 42 | FG | FG (28) |
LAWRENCE | 10.5 | RUSH, 18 |
| AVG | 6.3 | 2.7 |
3.6 |
50.0 | 29.0 | 7.9 | ||||
| 1 | -4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | PUNT | 2.6 | PASS, 15 | ||
| 1 | -4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | PUNT | -1.0 | PASS,10 | ||
| 3 | -1 |
3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | PUNT | 0.0 | PASS,6 | ||
| AVG | 3.7 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
vs MISSOURI
| Quarter | Score | Plays | Rush | Pass | Yards | Result | Score (Yards) | Player | Yds/Play (Drive) | Longest Play |
| 1 | Tie | 12 | 7 | 5 | 94 | TD | RUSH (6) | MCCOY | 7.8 | RUSH, 20 |
| 1 | +7 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 82 | TD | RUSH (9) | OGBONNAYA | 9.1 | PASS, 38 |
| 2 | +14 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 43 | TD | PASS (32) | WILLIAMS | 7.2 | PASS, 32 |
| 2 | +21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 41 | TD | RUSH (10) | OGBONNAYA | 13.7 | RUSH, 26 |
| 2 | +28 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 92 | TD | PASS (13) | SHIPLEY | 10.2 | PASS, 23 |
| 3 | +25 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 77 | TD | RUSH (2) | MCCOY | 7.7 | PASS, 17 |
| AVG | 9.8 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 71.5 | 2 Pass (22.5) | 7.3 | ||||
| 4 Rush (6.8) | ||||||||||
| 3 | +32 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | PUNT | 1.0 | PASS, 10 | ||
| 3 | +25 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | PUNT | 3.0 | PASS, 16 | ||
| AVG | 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 |
vs OKLAHOMA STATE
| Quarter | Score | Plays | Rush | Pass | Yards | Result | Score (Yards) | Player | Yds/Play (Drive) | Longest Play |
| 1 | Tie | 11 | 3 | 8 | 93 | TD | PASS (14) | SHIPLEY | 8.5 | PASS, 18 |
| 2 | +7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 91 | TD | RUSH (14) | MCGEE | 10.1 | PASS, 16 |
| 2 | +7 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 80 | TD | PASS (17) | COSBY | 8.9 | PASS, 20 |
| 3 | +7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 84 | TD | RUSH (3) | MCCOY | 8.4 | PASS, 29 |
| AVG | 9.8 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 87.0 | 2 Pass (15.5) | 8.9 | ||||
| 2 Rush (8.5) | ||||||||||
| 1 | Tie | 9 | 2 | 7 | 34 | PUNT | 3.7 | PASS, 22 | ||
| 2 | +7 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 43 | HALF | 8.6 | PASS, 34 | ||
| 3 | +7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | INT | 2.5 | PASS, 5 | ||
| 4 | +4 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 68 | FUMBLE | 4.5 | PASS, 16 | ||
| 4 | +4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 26 | DOWNS | 3.7 | PASS, 20 | ||
| AVG | 7.6 | 2.6 |
5.0 |
35.2 | 4.6 |
@ TEXAS TECH
| Quarter | Score | Plays | Rush | Pass | Yards | Result | Score (Yards) | Player | Yds/Play (Drive) | Longest Play |
| 3 | -16 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 58 | TD | PASS (37) | WILLIAMS | 9.7 | PASS, 37 |
| 4 | -9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 91 | TD | PASS (91) | WILLIAMS | 91.0 | PASS, 91 |
| 4 | -6 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 80 | TD | RUSH (4) | MCGEE | 7.3 | RUSH, 21 |
| AVG | 6.0 | 2.0 |
2.0 |
76.3 | 2 Pass (64.0) | 12.7 | ||||
| 1 Rush (4.0) | ||||||||||
| 2 | -19 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | FG | LAWRENCE (43) | 0.6 | RUSH, 9 | |
| 2 | -19 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 72 | FG | LAWRENCE (25) | 7.2 | PASS, 44 | |
| AVG | 7.5 | 2.0 |
5.5 |
37.5 | 34.0 | 5.0 | ||||
| 1 | Tie | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | SAFETY | -2.0 | RUSH, -2 | ||
| 1 | -5 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 5 | PUNT | 0.7 | PASS, 7 | ||
| 2 | -12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | PUNT | 2.7 | PASS, 6 | ||
| 2 | -19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | PUNT | 2.3 | PENALTY, 5 | ||
| 3 | -16 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | PUNT | 2.8 | PASS, 10 | ||
| 3 | -9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -12 | PICK-6 | -6.0 | N / A | ||
| 3 | -16 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 38 | PUNT | 4.2 | PASS, 11 | ||
| AVG | 4.3 | 1.6 |
2.7 |
8.3 | 1.9 |
vs BAYLOR
| Quarter | Score | Plays | Rush | Pass | Yards | Result | Score (Yards) | Player | Yds/Play (Drive) | Longest Play |
| 1 | Tie | 9 | 2 | 7 | 65 | TD | PASS (35) | COSBY | 7.2 | PASS, 35 |
| 1 | +7 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 70 | TD | PASS (1) | SMITH | 6.4 | PASS, 15 |
| 2 | +7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 73 | TD | PASS (26) | COSBY | 14.6 | PASS, 26 |
| 3 | +14 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75 | TD | PASS (40) | COLLINS | 9.4 | PASS, 40 |
| 3 | +21 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 65 | TD | PASS (15) | SHIPLEY | 5.0 | PASS, 15 |
| AVG | 9.2 | 4.6 |
4.6 |
69.6 | 5 Pass (23.4) | 7.6 | ||||
| 2 | Tie |
8 | 3 | 5 | 33 | FGA | Miss FG (44) |
LAWRENCE | 4.1 | RUSH,18 |
| 4 | +28 |
8 | 2 | 6 | 64 | FGA | Miss FG (20) |
LAWRENCE | 8.0 | RUSH, 28 |
| AVG | 8.0 | 2.5 |
5.5 |
48.5 | 32.0 | 6.0 | ||||
| 1 | +14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | INT | 0.3 | PASS, 1 | ||
| 2 | +7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | PUNT | 0.3 | RUSH, 1 | ||
| 2 | +14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | INT | 1.5 | PASS, 3 | ||
| AVG | 2.6 | 0.3 |
2.3 |
1.7 | 0.6 |
@ KANSAS
| Quarter | Score | Plays | Rush | Pass | Yards | Result | Score (Yards) | Player | Yds/Play (Drive) | Longest Play |
| 1 | Tie | 9 | 4 | 5 | 71 | TD | RUSH (14) | MCGEE | 7.9 | PASS, 16 |
| 2 | +7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 67 | TD | RUSH (4) | MCCOY | 9.6 | PASS, 19 |
| 3 | +14 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60 | TD | RUSH (10) | OGBONNAYA | 6.0 | PASS, 22 |
| 3 | +14 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 73 | TD | PASS (9) | COSBY | 9.1 | RUSH, 25 |
| 3 | +21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 37 | TD | PASS (36) | COLLINS | 18.5 | PASS, 36 |
| AVG | 7.2 | 3.8 |
3.4 |
61.6 | 2 Pass (22.5) | 8.6 | ||||
| 3 Rush (9.3) | ||||||||||
| 1 | +7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 23 | FUMBLE | 4.6 | PASS, 9 | ||
| 1 | +7 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 10 | PUNT | 1.7 | PASS, 7 | ||
| 2 | +7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17 | PUNT | 2.8 | PASS, 8 | ||
| 2 | +7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | DOWNS | 1.0 | PASS, 4 | ||
| 3 | +14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | PUNT | 1.3 | RUSH, 4 | ||
| 4 | +28 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 30 | PUNT | 4.3 | PASS,16 | ||
| AVG | 5.2 | 2.3 |
2.9 |
14.7 | 2.8 |
vs TEXAS A&M
| Quarter | Score | Plays | Rush | Pass | Yards | Result | Score (Yards) | Player | Yds/Play (Drive) | Longest Play |
| 1 | Tie | 12 | 9 | 3 | 80 | TD | RUSH (14) | MCCOY | 6.7 | PASS, 20 |
| 2 | +7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 48 | TD | PASS (20) | COLLINS | 5.3 | PASS, 20 |
| 2 | +11 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 78 | TD | PASS (9) | COSBY | 8.7 | PASS, 18 |
| 3 | +18 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 80 | TD | RUSH (16) | MCCOY | 16.0 | PASS, 36 |
| 3 | +25 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 68 | TD | RUSH (1) | JOHNSON | 11.3 | PASS, 68 |
| AVG | 8.2 | 4.2 |
4.0 |
70.8 | 2 Pass (14.5) | 8.6 | ||||
| 3 Rush (10.3) | ||||||||||
| 1 | +7 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 43 | FGA | Miss FG (36) | LAWRENCE | 3.6 | PASS, 13 |
| AVG | 12.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 43.0 | 36.0 | 3.6 | ||||
| 1 | +7 |
5 | 1 |
4 |
6 | PUNT | 1.2 | PASS, 8 | ||
| AVG | 5.0 | 1.0 |
4.0 |
6.0 | 1.2 |
OHIO STATE (FIESTA BOWL)
| Quarter | Score | Plays | Rush | Pass | Yards | Result | Score (Yards) | Player | Yds/Play (Drive) | Longest Play |
| 3 | -3 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 80 | TD | RUSH (14) | MCCOY | 5.3 | RUSH, 14 |
| 3 | +4 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 85 | TD | PASS (7) | COSBY | 9.4 | PASS, 20 |
| 4 | -4 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 78 | TD | PASS (26) | COSBY | 7.1 | PASS, 26 |
| AVG | 11.7 | 5.0 |
6.7 |
81.0 | 2 Pass (16.5) | 6.9 | ||||
| 1 Rush (14.0) | ||||||||||
| 2 | -3 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 57 | FG | FG (27) | LAWRENCE | 5.2 | PASS, 20 |
| AVG | 11.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 57.0 | 27.0 | 5.2 | ||||
| 1 | Tie | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | PUNT | 2.3 | RUSH, 7 | ||
| 1 | -3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 32 | PUNT | 4.6 | PASS, 13 | ||
| 2 | -3 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 27 | DOWNS | 3.4 | PASS, 22 | ||
| 2 | -3 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 76 | INT | 12.7 | PASS, 37 | ||
| 3 | +4 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | PUNT | 2.2 | PASS, 17 | ||
| 4 | +8 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 37 | PUNT | 4.1 | PASS, 13 | ||
| 4 | +2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | PUNT | 1.0 | PASS,3 | ||
| AVG | 6.0 | 1.1 |
4.9 |
27.9 | 4.6 |
TOTALS
| Type | Plays | Rush | Pass | Yards | Yards/Play |
| TD | 331 | 155 | 176 | 2885 | 8.7 |
| FGA | 81 | 28 | 53 | 438 | 5.4 |
| FAIL | 199 | 63 | 136 | 648 | 3.2 |
DRIVE AVERAGES
| Type | Plays | Yards | Yards/Play | Average Score Distance |
| TD 2008 | 8.3 | 72.1 | 8.7 | 16.4 yd TD |
| TD 2007 | 7.2 | 67.2 | 9.3 | 20.0 yd TD |
| FG 2008 | 8.1 | 43.8 | 5.4 | 32.8 yd FGA |
| FG 2007 | 9.0 | 54.0 | 6.0 | 38.9 yd FGA |
0 recs | 16 comments
Nice Post
Couple comments:
1. I think the Jamal Charles factor would account for almost all the variation. That guy had some 1 play 70 yard drives kind of deal. Last year – nothing from the run game.
2. In 2009 – even without the run game – Colt and Crew will blow the 07 numbers out of the water.
realmccoy - August 17, 2009
Great minds. /nt whills
ctex80 - August 17, 2009
Great stuff, PB
This really does a great job of illustrating the Jamaal Charles shaped hole in our offense in ‘08. From a quick perusal of the ’07 numbers, Charles accounted for 5 TD’s in 1-5 play drives, including runs of 86, 75, 25, and 24 yards.
Conversely, I think the improvement in TD’s from 11-15 play drives is a great testament to the discipline and patience of McCoy last year. His sophomore year, some of those drives would have ended in INT’s.
ctex80 - August 17, 2009
Also,
The Fiesta Bowl numbers stand out a bit…
Four scoring drives:
15 plays, 80 yds, TD
9 plays, 85 yds, TD
11 plays, 78 yds, TD
11 plays, 57 yds, FG
Damn. McCoy is the QB that Greg Davis was born to coordinate.
ctex80 - August 17, 2009
I thought GD was born to coordinate Vince Young
notsofst - August 17, 2009
Vince Young was born to be unleashed
Longhorn@Berkeley - August 17, 2009
Good charts, PB
I never gave big plays (explosives) a lot of thought until Mack Brown began to lecture on it. The chart numbers, and your comment that it’s "incredibly difficult to sustain long drives . . . " bring that concept into sharp focus.
So: How did the defense fare in 2008 (vs. 2007) — and what do the numbers suggest about the 2009 season?
edsp - August 17, 2009
Like two years ago, as the yards per play go up, the chances of the drive ending in six points shoot up with it
I think the causality here is a bit backwards — the yard per play are high because the drive covered the length of the field. Similarly, drives that don’t score are bound to have low yards per play because they have low total yards.
The fact that its impossible to generate a drive with a high yards per play that doesn’t end in a score makes it difficult to understand how to interpret these statistics for me. Its not clear to me whether the game of football allows for anything but what you’ve shown (namely, the strong correlation between yards/play and scoring).
I’ll have to give it more thought — but this is very interesting, great post.
pleaseplaykindle - August 17, 2009
strong *positive correlation
pleaseplaykindle - August 17, 2009
Certainly
You’ve definitely hit on the “intuitive” part I was referring to: this is what we’d expect to find. A failed drive, or one that ends in a field goal attempt, at least has one series of three plays that total fewer than 10 yards. We could have inferred that general conclusion without all the charing, etc.
What’s interesting (to me, anyway) is looking into the details of how those scoring drives come about. While we can intuit that scoring drives are likely to average more yards per play, the variations among offenses that score are still substantial, and interesting to compare. How big play dependent is your offense? Given what the data shows us about big plays, how important are playmakers who can break big ones? How much can an offense succeed without a bunch of game-breakers, by virtue of being able to sustain drives? With McCoy’s accuracy, the need for big plays seems to diminish. But add a few big play makers and a better running game, and the future in 2009 looks quite bright.
Anyway, I appreciate the comment. Thanks for reading. Look forward to more thoughts on this, from you and others.
Peter Bean - August 17, 2009
Just crunched some numbers.
I looked at how yards/pass attempt varied as a function of where on the field we were. I don’t have time to plot the data in a nice format, but some characterizations of the 2007 vs. 2008 seasons:
2007:
The team averaged 12 yards per pass attempt (YPA) within their own 20 yard line, but this number steadily dropped as we approached the goal line, down to 6.5 YPA in the redzone. Not terribly surprising, but at a cursory glance, the spread between 12 and 6.5 YPA is relatively high, esp. when compared with 2008. In 20 yard increments, starting from their own goal line, the 2007 team averaged: 12, 8, 6.4, 7.5, 6.6 YPA. This is pretty close to what you’d expect, YPA dropping off as the field in front of you gets shorter. This is not, however what the 2008 team did…
2008:
The 2008 team was far more consistent with respect to YPA over the field, averaging 8, 9, 9.5, 10.5, and 6.15 YPA going from their own goal line downfield in 20 yard increments (does that make sense?). What’s surprising is that as the field got shorter, our YPA actually increased until we got to the red zone. I can’t think of a reason why this would be…any ideas? What IS clear is that McCoy was almost completely unaffected by whatever was going on in front of him. The defense had to cover less and less territory, and McCoy was just as efficient as he was (or maybe more?) when the series started. This without any running game to speak of. Incredible.
I think you’re exactly right PB, that when we start putting together the consistency of last year with some playmaking ability courtesy of our WR corps (Williams?) we can really unleash on some defenses next year. McCoy, though, clearly doesn’t care if our receiver’s run the ball for him downfield or not, its as if he’s playing football on a field with no defense.
pleaseplaykindle - August 17, 2009
Maybe?
As good as Colt is, it takes him 2-3 throws in a drive to really zero in and hit the receivers in the exact right spot.
Or maybe we’ve lulled the defense into biting on the short routes the first few first downs on a drive, leaving more open space and chance for the WR’s to get behind some of the defense.
Just a couple of wild guesses.
Horncasting - August 17, 2009
GD?
Like a lot of coaches adverse to risk, the play calling may be more conservative when your close to your end of field and more liberal as you get further away from your endzone and reach a threshold comfort level at the 40 or 50. It may also be attributed to defenses getting more anxious as Colt & Co. get closer to their endzone.
Cosby and Shipley made some great catches. Although I’m sure the stats may prove otherwise, I don’t remember either of them dropping more than 1 pass between them in a game with the exception of the anomalous TT game and very early UTEP game. With almost no running game and no TE and a relatively short (where the ball is caught) passing game, Colt made a lot of amazing passes through the tiniest of windows.
longhorns1 - August 17, 2009
But the 2007 number belie a conservative approach in our end of the field...
It could be GD adjusted the play calling to take advantage of Colt’s ability to keep the chains moving rather than trying for big strikes early in a drive. Or it could be without someone like Sweed to stretch the field those sorts of plays just weren’t viable.
What I like about last year’s long sustained drives was how they must have helped the defense stay fresh. Our DT depth issues are a lot less imposing if Houston isn’t gassed by halftime because we had two or three 12-15 play TD drives.
Rickyspub - August 18, 2009
There's only one thing I can pull from these numbers
Colt and crew did an incredible job sustaining long drives ( helped by a great 3rd and long conversion percentage ), and they were able to do it against the best defenses they faced ( 5 / 11 against OU and tOSU ).
These guys are cool under pressure.
notsofst - August 17, 2009
Penalties
Aren’t penalties a big factor here? Especially deep interference calls.
Caradoc - August 18, 2009
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