NCAA Tournament Projections -- It's March

by awiggo on Mar 1, 2010 10:00 AM CST in Texas Longhorns Basketball

As mentioned in this post last week, there are no elite teams this season.

Most seasons there are a two or three teams that clearly stand out from the rest. This year, I’d argue there are none. Kansas and Kentucky are solid, don’t get me wrong, but both are beatable teams. If your favorite team top 16 or even top 32, I doubt you fear the Jayhawks, the Wildcats, or anyone else.

Once you throw in Purdue, who is now without Robbie Hummel for the rest of the season, three of the projected No. 1 seeds lost last week. Kansas lost at Oklahoma State, Kentucky fell at Tennessee, and Purdue fell to Michigan State in West Lafayette. This should be a wide-open, upset filled NCAA tournament.

Major conferences enter their final week of regular season play, while smaller conferences start their conference tournaments this week. Selection Sunday is less than two weeks away!

The top teams are gunning for protected seeds in the these four regionals: Syracuse, St. Louis, Houston, and Salt Lake City. With no west coast teams vying for No. 1 or No. 2 seeds, the weakest No. 1 seed will likely be ‘protected’ but their regional location will be a long way from home.

The other interesting aspect of slotting the No. 1 seeds is the Syracuse Orange. Even if Syracuse earns a top seed, they are not allowed to be place in the Syracuse Regional. Teams are not permitted to play in sites in which their university is the host school. So, Jim Boheim’s club should get to stay in Buffalo for the first couple of rounds but must be shipped to St. Louis, Houston, or Salt Lake for the second weekend. It will be interesting to see how the committee handles the Orange and how their placement affects the other three No. 1 seeds.

First and second round sites include Providence, Buffalo, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, San Jose, and Spokane.

Here are my updated guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament.

These are if the season ended today. They are listed by strength within each seed as well.

No. 1: Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke
No. 2: Purdue, Kansas State, Villanova, West Virginia
No. 3: Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, New Mexico
No. 4: Vanderbilt, Butler, BYU, Pittsburgh

Next Four: Temple, Tennessee, Georgetown, Baylor

Big 12 Bids (7)
Lock: Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (5), Texas (6), Texas A&M (6), Missouri (7)
Likely: Oklahoma State (10)
Bubble:

Bracket Matrix

SB Nation Bracketology

SB Nation Bubble Watch

Thoughts?

0 recs | 18 comments

Comments

Are You Sure Horns Are a Lock?

If we lose all this week and a humble first round exit? The committee does add weight to how a team is performing at season’s end. I hope you are right – but I think we need a win to be a lock.

realmccoy - March 1, 2010 reply

I Agree

As I wrote in a Fanpost last night, under the scenario you describe — Texas losing its next three games — I think it is plausible we are not invited to the tournament.

I think on resume Texas deserves a slot; furthermore, I think Texas, even if it loses its next two games, will win at least its opening Big 12 tournament game (and at that point be a lock).

Allaha - March 1, 2010 reply

Not totally sure, no

I wrote in here: http://www.burntorangenation.com/2010/2/28/1330746/big-12-projected-standings-by-tier that we need at least one more win to feel 100% safe. The bubble is so weak, though, that we’d still probably get in at 8-8 anyway.

awiggo - March 1, 2010 reply

agreed.

The bubble is weak this year. But that any doubt is done tonight if we win….having Brown playing now will help.

silky51 - March 1, 2010 reply

6 seed?

I figure we are more like a 8 seed at this point (and playing like a non-NCAA tourney team).

Sunkist - March 1, 2010 reply

6 sounds right...especially in a deep conf. such as Big 12 which will send 7 teams this year unless Ok State gets hosed.

I think their win over KU solidified 8-10 seed for them.

Mulliganville - March 1, 2010 reply

lundardi's bracket

has yall at an 8 seed right now

dmurphnextrusygreer - March 1, 2010 reply

Now how many 1 seed's would be ticked to possibly play Texas in the 2nd round

I know we’re struggling, but this team has plenty of talent to knock off a 1 seed in that scenario.

silky51 - March 1, 2010 reply

6 trending down

After another 1-1 week, we’ll be in the dreaded 7-10 seed range, ala last year. Not good.

awiggo - March 1, 2010 reply

Seeds

Seeds just determine how far you go before you hit a superior opponent. Unless it matters to you whether you get knocked out in the first or second round, the initial seed’s not going to matter. To get the Final Four, at some point you have to beat the best teams in your bracket, so you might as well face them sooner as later. (Nice rationalization, eh?)

Caradoc - March 1, 2010 reply

Sure

I want to get to the second weekend. If we can get back to the 5 or 6 seed line, then we’d have to beat a 3 or 4 in the second round. That is doable for this team.

I’d like to avoid playing a 1 or 2 in the second round to get to the Sweet 16, that’s all.

You are completely right, though. Gotta beat good teams to advance. Period.

awiggo - March 1, 2010 reply

george mason did it a few years ago.

wolfmanshowlforever - March 7, 2010 reply

I wonder...

I think KU, UK, and SYR absolutely stand above the rest…Okie St beat KU at Gallagher-Iba when KU last won the title. These losses on the road to conference foes mean very little. Aren’t UT and A&M 6-6 over their last twelve, with each protecting home court during this time span? If there was a trifecta box for the tourney, I would box KU, UK and SYR without question.

Mulliganville - March 1, 2010 reply