We’re now less than a week away from Selection Sunday. The dream of a protected seed for the Longhorns as part of the Houston Regional died weeks ago, however, Sunday is still one of the more anticipated days of the year for this college basketball junkie.
I predict we’ll hear a lot less of "________ should definitely be in. They got robbed!" and a whole lot more of "There horrible! No way should _______ be in the tournament."
The discussion of whether or not to expand the NCAA tournament from 65 to 96 teams should end for anyone who has attempted to put together a bracket this season. In a typical year, there might be 70-75 worthy teams for those 65 coveted spots. This season, there’s probably about 60 worthy teams for those same 65 spots and five others teams that will slip in without merit.
Along those lines, let’s take a look at how this NCAA tournament might be seeded.
First I am assuming that the following mid-major teams will all win their respective conference tournaments and avoid their leagues receiving multiple bids—Siena (MAAC), Butler (Horizon), Old Dominion (Colonial), and maybe Utah State (WAC). Northern Iowa has already won the Missouri Valley making the MVC a one-bid league, and Gonzaga and St. Mary’s have made the West Coast Conference finals ensuring the WCC gets those two teams and no more.
The top teams are gunning for protected seeds in the these four regionals: Syracuse, St. Louis, Houston, and Salt Lake City. With no west coast teams vying for No. 1 or No. 2 seeds, the weakest No. 1 seed will likely be ‘protected’ but their regional location will be a long way from home.
First and second round sites include Providence, Buffalo, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, San Jose, and Spokane.
No. 1: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke
No. 2: Purdue, West Virginia, Ohio State, Kansas State
No. 3: New Mexico, Michigan State, Villanova, BYU
No. 4: Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple, Butler
No. 5: Wisconsin, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
No. 6: Maryland, Xavier, Texas A&M, Northern Iowa
No. 7: Gonzaga, California, Richmond, Marquette
No. 8: Texas, Missouri, UNLV, Louisville
No. 9: Oklahoma State, Clemson, Florida State, St. Mary's
No. 10: Wake Forest, UTEP, Illinois, Old Dominion
No. 11: San Diego State, Florida, Va Tech, Cornell
No. 12: Georgia Tech, Memphis, Notre Dame, Rhode Island
Thoughts? Gripes? Suggestions?
0 recs | 35 comments
Good stuff Wiggo
Really want Texas to win two in the Big XII tourney to get up to the 6 line.
Peter Bean - March 8, 2010
Well
That answered my first question.
Going to have to go through Baylor who has just killed us this season.
blazzinken - March 8, 2010
I mean...Baylor just can't beat us 4 times in a row, right?
but, again, with this team….the focus should be Iowa St (who just had their most impressive win of the season against K State)
silky51 - March 8, 2010
I really don't want an 8 seed
What would we have to do to move up to a 6 seed, is that possible?
-Maybe win 2/3 games this weekend.
Another question, very hypothetical, what if we were to win the tourney beating Iowa St., Baylor, K-State, and Kansas a long the way?
-Maybe move up to a 3 seed?
Hey a guy can dream right?
blazzinken - March 8, 2010
I'll say this without feeling and with a tear in eye,
Texas is not going to win the Big 12 tournament.
awiggo - March 8, 2010
Well
That is the beauty of March madness. Although it does not happen much, teams can get hot.
Syracuse in 2006 knocking off Uconn in the early rounds, Maryland in 2005 sweeping through the ACC tourney. I know these guys are the exception…but there is always that chance.
With all that being said…you are right.
blazzinken - March 8, 2010
correct me if I'm wrong, but a 5 seed or lower has never won the big 12 tourney...right?
silky51 - March 8, 2010
I think you are right....
Can’t think of anyone in the last few seasons. Baylor was close last season, I think they were a 6 seed.
But that is the beauty of March Madness….anything can happen.
Just to be clear though, I really don’t have any hopes.
blazzinken - March 8, 2010
Fairfield narrowly leading Siena, 5 min left
So if farfield wins and gets the auto-bid, does siena have good enough a resume to be at-large, and thus screw URI?
BigTexBD - March 8, 2010
I think so
They also have the tourney history in the favor as well.
blazzinken - March 8, 2010
Not sure about Siena
that one is a longshot. RPI 36, Strength of Schedule 136. 0-5 against RPI top 50.
awiggo - March 8, 2010
Good rpi, but that 0-5 would likely keep them out. nt.
BigTexBD - March 8, 2010
I think Siena still makes it in, because of their tournament history. Those kinds of things seem to matter…
ZeroIndulgence - March 9, 2010
that talk was yesterday...
…before they won the automatic bid. They are in.
vy til i die - March 9, 2010
My thoughts...
Lose to Iowa State…..Texas is 8/9 seed
beat Iowa State………..Texas is a 7 seed
beat Baylor………………Texas is a 6 seed (they have it within them to do this)
win semi’s………………Texas is 5/6 seed
win big 12 tourney…..Texas is 4/5 seed (team too inconsistent to pull it off)
silky51 - March 8, 2010
Its possible.
I think K-state is overrated, if we can knock off baylor, and then take out K-state, who knows…maybe Kansas gets upset as well and we play Aggie in the Championship
blazzinken - March 8, 2010
Like I said earlier
I am not counting on it by any means
blazzinken - March 8, 2010
avery, hamilton, and brown
2 of those 3 would have to be lighting it up each game for that to happen.
silky51 - March 8, 2010
Any chance the Cuse are NOT in Houston bracket?
I just don’t see that happening any way, shape, or form, unless they manage to slip from a 1 seed by miraculously losing their first game.
jc25 - March 8, 2010
Probably not
Only way I see it as a possibility is
Duke-Syracuse
Kentucky—Houston
Kansas—St. Louis
Syracuse—Salt Lake City
awiggo - March 8, 2010
From what I've read
Even if Kentucky is ahead of Syracuse in the one seeds, they would still get seeded in Syracuse rather than Houston because that’s their closer proximity. But you’re right, if Kentucky, Kansas and Syracuse lose early enough and Duke runs the table in the ACC, they could conceivably take the 1 seed overall and get placed in the Northeast. Then it looks like Kansas would get St. Louis, and Kentucky/Syracuse would be whoever was higher for the Houston bracket.
Sucks for Houston ticketholders (i.e., me). I was still holding out hope that even with Texas fading, we’d get to see Kansas or Kentucky in the bracket. The way it’s shaking up looks like a Syracuse-K-State tilt.
jc25 - March 8, 2010
I have tickets too
and I’ll be rooting for your Wildcats or the Jayhawks to get Houston. I doubt I’ll go so the stronger the fanbase, the more I can sell the tickets for.
awiggo - March 8, 2010
With the average year Bradley has had thus far
If he doesn’t light it up in March does he come back?
It’s hard to say. He has slipped a lot in mock drafts but is still a first rounder. And with the unfortunate timing of the potential 2011 lockout, that may be a really sad deciding factor for him.
Jhal2315 - March 8, 2010
Bradley’s 15+ point games:
L Beach St, Texas St, Texas PA, UNC, Colorado, @ ISU, UConn, @ OU, NU, @ Mizzou
Except against Mizzou, he hasn’t scored against anyone with a pulse. And he actually hurt us in the Mizzou game because he just kept jacking up shots. You shouldn’t only score 15 points in 18 shots. His Ast/TO is barely over 1 at 1.27 (for comparison Balbay has 2.47).
I don’t think anyone would risk a 1st round on him if he can’t do better against college talent.
UT_BKC - March 8, 2010
I completely agree
I’m just mentioning what draft boards have. I don’t see how he is a 1st rounder either and he should stay, but a lot of drafts had him as a lottery pick at the early parts of the year now slipping into the 20’s.
Obviously the draft stock is from his hype and potential but not his current basketball ability….You have some solid stats though, maybe you should send those to the scouts incase they haven’t seen them yet! haha
Jhal2315 - March 8, 2010
Maybe it's a slightly weaker draft and that helps him stay higher up on boards as well
Jhal2315 - March 8, 2010
ha. yeah right. I think there will be a lot of movement when the season is over. I think most of the stuff coming out now is from the espn hype factory that doesn’t know what their talking about and just throws crap out based on who was ranked where when the freshmen signed. When the season is over and the real scouts evaute the entire season, I’d bet he drops some.
The weak draft point below may also be part of it.
UT_BKC - March 8, 2010
How is OkSU a 9 seed? They held serve against everyone in the Big 12 South except for Texas. They also have two VERY good wins AT KSU and at home against KU. I would say their only bad loss is AT OU (same as us).
UT_BKC - March 8, 2010
I should say “only a 9 seed.” Seems like they’d be an 8 with us. I’m not sure that either we or Mizzou shouldn’t be moved down to the 9 seed. At least we have a couple decent non wins in MSU and Pitt. Mizzou only got 1 game out of 4 against KSU and KU (worse than OkSU) and they lost to the one good team they played non con (Vandy).
UT_BKC - March 8, 2010
Quick question
If Clemson is both an 8 and a 9 seed do they get to play themselves?
flamingmonkeyass - March 8, 2010 via mobile
Haha
Nice catch! Hey, at least this way they have guaranteed themselves a berth in the 2nd round.
Jhal2315 - March 8, 2010
Crap
The first one is Cal, not Clemson. Fixed now.
awiggo - March 9, 2010
You now have 2 Cals :)
UT_BKC - March 9, 2010
Yikes
I suck.
I moved some teams around and added Cornell on the 11 line.
I’ll do this again from the beginning tonight or tomorrow night.
See, I told yall it was difficult to get to 65 teams. I keep picking the same one twice.
awiggo - March 10, 2010
My thoughts
I may have a different take on bracketology, mainly because I don’t think seeding matters all that much. Why? First, I should say what matters to me (apart from being entertained) is to see the Horns in the Final Four. Sure a championship would be wonderful and a Sweet Sixteen makes the program look good, but for me it’s the Final Four that matters. And to get there, you have get past everyone in your bracket — four wins that likely include a #1 and a #2 — and I say it doesn’t much matter what order you take them.
What I’m really looking for: ( 1 ) Favorable matchups, ( 2 ) Truly neutral courts, ( 3 ) Normal game times.
I’m not very optimistic about the Horns chances this year, but there is still the possibility that someone will get crazy hot and the rest of the team will catch on fire. At least there is that.
Caradoc - March 9, 2010
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