Texas and Kansas State went down to the wire in a terrific conference game at Bramlage Coliseum, but the Longhorns couldn't quite pull of the upset on the road as the Wildcats hung on for an 84-80 win. Give Kansas State credit: they absolutely had to win this one, and they battled hard and got it done -- particularly Rodney McGruder, who did what I said he couldn't do and hauled his team on his back, pouring in a career high 33 points.
Kansas State did a particularly good job making things difficult for J`Covan Brown, who finished with 22 points but needed 28 shots to get there. On the one hand, if you're going to go down pinning it all on one player, you want it to be your best guy -- God help me if we'd lost with Julien Lewis finishing 2-15 from the floor -- and several of Brown's misses were great looks that he just couldn't get down. On the other hand, I thought in the second half we really pulled away from our biggest advantage in the game when we stopped attacking the paint with Myck Kabongo. It was clear to me that Kansas State didn't have anyone who could stay in front of Myck without fouling, and though Myck coughed up a couple turnovers after the refs started swallowing their whistles, it was a mistake not to keep having him attack anyway. He was getting to the rim or fouled, and once we got away from that our offense got progressively more passive and our trips to the line all but dried up. As I emphasized in the preview, attacking K-State relentlessly and getting your points at the free throw line is essential, and after it was our bread and butter in the first half, we struggled to score without it in the second.
Who knows how responsible Rick Barnes is for our getting away from that, but he was yapping at Kabongo after he turned it over on a drive to the paint, and Kabongo never took it to the rim after that, so I have to believe he told him to stop. If so, it was a mistake, and though I've been very pleased with the job Barnes has been doing bringing this team along, on the whole I didn't love what he did with tonight's game. Along with allowing us to get away from what was working so well for us, I was confused by Barnes' decision to start Bond and Wangmene, probably the last of the six possible combinations of starting forwards I would have gone with for this match up, and thought we needlessly went to a zone early in the first half, which was when K-State went on their big run of the game.
On the more positive side of the ledger, I was once again impressed with how we competed, and with a few more things going our way we easily could have pulled off the upset in one of the two toughest road venues in the Big 12 (along with Allen Fieldhouse). I'll have a bit more on that in the next Texas Basketball Report, but for now it's at least encouraging to see us closing in on a breakthrough. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and if we don't get there quickly and close out the back half of the schedule very strong we'll be NIT-bound, but it's also clear what these kids will be capable of whenever they do get there. Hopefully they'll get there this year, and next year is looking mighty interesting, provided we can dodge the NBA Draft bullet for once.
In any event, considering what a longshot it was to win this game at Bramlage, the big takeaway from this game really has to be what we saw from Kabongo and Sheldon McClellan, both of whom really showed their talent against as tough and physical a defensive team as they'll see all year. That's what we've been waiting for, and if it's disappointing to have fallen short of the win, getting to that next level this year has always been about the light coming on for both of those players. They're getting closer, and so is the team.
For once I'm too tired to stay up until 3 a.m. writing, so I'll have to defer detailed individual notes for now. I can't say that this loss was a bad one, but it's awfully tough to keep getting so close to a breakthrough and falling just short. The optimist in me wants to focus on how good a sign that is for our chances to finish strong down the stretch, but with each loss our margin for error keeps getting that much smaller.
Next up? Kansas... Thank God. This team could use a breather.
Hook 'em
0 recs | 63 comments
Heartbreaking loss
the hand off from Kabongo to Brown failed when we a chance to tie of take the lead with 20 seconds left….. great game by the horns, showed great development. We have played great against Missouri, Iowa State, and K-State on the road, but just fell short in each. You got to think we have every chance of beating these teams at the Erwin Center.
Shane Yeo - January 19, 2012
or*
Shane Yeo - January 19, 2012
Another no-call on that play.
The KSt defender ran through Kabongo’s left shoulder and knocked him to the floor. Home cookin’. One of the worst things about college basketball.
Paleface Horn - January 19, 2012
Congrats PB
You have been on fire with your predictions and game keys this year. Not sure anyone has a better handle on this year’s team.
realmccoy - January 19, 2012 via mobile
Or what if...
Peter is actually affecting outcomes. In that case, how about picking a win, Peter?
Causation, or correlation? You decide.
Reggieball - January 19, 2012
+1
Keep the faith.
jc25 - January 19, 2012
Just Tell Me
With all those numbers that you wonderfully crunch – are we going to the big dance or NITing no mas.
realmccoy - January 19, 2012
I think it is a coin flip...
Let’s continue to assume (as we all have) that Texas needs 10 conference wins during the regular season to advance. I don’t know if this is actually true, but is the assumption that we have all been working under, and it seems reasonable.
As of now, Kenpom.com puts Texas as having roughly a 50% chance of getting 10 or more conference wins.
It might be possible for us to get in with 9 wins as well. I don’t really know. I have no idea how to project RPI, but Texas is currently #65 in RPI and I the best I can tell Texas’ RPI is only going to improve from here. Strength of schedule is 75% of the RPI, and with the crappy non-conference schedule but tough conference one, it should keep improving even if Texas keeps to good teams. Remember that RPI ranking is a really big deal in making the tournament. (You may think, like I do, that the RPI is kind of crappy, but the selection committee uses it pretty heavily.) One problem is that Texas is 1-5 against RPI top 100 teams. That Temple win is big, and the loss to NC State (a game that could have reasonably won) hurts. I wouldn’t sweat the rating against top 100 RPI teams too much, Texas has plenty of opportunity to improve on this.
I don’t know what RPI threshold Texas needs to reach, but I imagine getting into the mid 30s in RPI ranking or so would do it.
Reggieball - January 19, 2012
Time to start pumping sunshine
Blowout win over Kansas prediction coming soon!
Peter Bean - January 19, 2012
I only got to watch the first half....
and am disappointed to hear we got away from what was working offensively. It was clear from the start that K-St. was having Kabongo’s man try to pressure him away from the basket while he couldn’t stay with Myck’s quickness off the dribble. Myck taking him to the rack produced both points and assist opportunities.
Glad you mentioned the officiating which I thought was typical Big 12 home cooking.
As Myck matures, I hope he will take it upon himself to be more assertive when that is working.
hh500 - January 19, 2012
First off....
I honestly believe Texas is never going to beat KSU in basketball or football anymore, my god the way the game ended, it is not even “owning” anymore. It just seems like we cannot get a damn bounce to go our way at all against the Wildcats.
I am really starting to believe that Zeus, Athena, and all the other gods are huge KSU fans sitting atop Mount Olympus sporting purple togas with that stupid wildcat logo on the front and they only use their powers to will a win over the Longhorns.
Second, can somebody please tell me why in the hell Wangmene is a Division I basketball player. Seriously the only thing the guy can even remotely do well is rebound the ball and last night he could not even do that. I am pretty sure 75 of KSU’s 84 points came from offensive rebounds. Kansas State’s front court bent Wangmene and Chapman over and had them begging for seconds all night. If those two could have pulled a damn rebound at all last night Texas cruises to an easy victory, instead Kansas State gets numerous second and even third chance points last night which really secured the game.
And last with all the things that did not seem to work in our favor, this young team fought hard and I believe a star was born last night in Myck Kabongo, still going to have some pains, but I cannot wait to see this team in two seasons (thank god Barnes finally recruited a team that will actually stay around and not take off the the NBA after one season).
HornsRiverine - January 19, 2012
Part of the ending
Was it being KState, the other part was Rick Barnes. He is the worst late game coach of all time, Texas has only 1 or 2 losses with almost any other coach and the same players. I’m glad the team fought like they did, at least it was a close lost which is all you can expect from a team like this with this coach.
Kabongo is playing too well now, if he keeps this up the rest of the year, he is gone. That’s the problem, his potential is beginning to be seen by scouts, hopefully he comes back but we’ll see
Mclovin1035 - January 19, 2012
29% vs 61%
Brown hit 8 of the 28 shots (< an ice cold 29%) he took. The rest of the horns hit 19 of 31 shots (a scorching 61%). If Brown shoots less and passes more, the horns probably win.
Kafka - January 19, 2012
That's weak. Live and die with your best player.
2Cor12:9 - January 19, 2012
Exactly
If Brown had 28 shot attempts against Mizzou Texas probably would’ve won. I do think it would’ve helped to have McClellan shoot more, but I like them getting J’Covan the ball. We need to defend 3 point land better in the 1st half, in all 3 of our big XII losses the opponents have shot over 50% from there ( 7-12 last night, 8-11 vs mizzou, 9-11 vs isu).
Mclovin1035 - January 19, 2012
Two different games
In one game Brown was on fire, last night Brown was ice cold. The idea that you don’t adapt your strategy to game time match ups and circumstances is absurd.
Kafka - January 19, 2012
Really?
Much smarter to pay attention to match ups. Sometimes your best player is over matched by his defender and it is better to diversify your offense. I’m going to take a wild guess and guess that you have never coached basketball.
Kafka - January 19, 2012
Excuse me internet sir and your great basketball credentials.
JCB went 6-7 for three’s against Mizzou Saturday and poured in 34. He’s far and away our best player. There are no other consistent commodities on the team. I’m okay with him having a bad night and us still going to him. He has proved in his 2+ years that he can get buckets.
Your confidence in the other Horns who shot 61% on 31 shot attempts neglects the fact that that number would have dropped significantly with more attempts. Don’t believe me, go look at the season averages. Its the same flawed thinking many Longhorn football fans have concerning DJ Monroe’s YPC, which would definitely decrease with more carries. Great as a change of pace back but will never average 8ypc with 10+ carries per game.
2Cor12:9 - January 19, 2012
Two different games internet wise guy
You don’t use the same strategy all the time, you change your strategy depending on matchups and who is hot and cold. If you don’t get that it is obvious that you don’t know much about basketball. This idea that you live or die with one player no matter what is absurd.
Kafka - January 19, 2012
Well in your coaching strategies that you seem to have it would be real easy to take your best player away with double teams or a box and one.
Get your best player the ball, especially when in basketball usually the team with the best player wins.
2Cor12:9 - January 19, 2012
Handoff
There were a couple of problems with the hand off from Kabongo to Brown at the end of the game. The hand off approach is really vulnerable to a double team and is prone to turnovers. Also, Brown did not cut close to Kabongo so there was room for his defender to squeeze between Brown and Kabongo.
The reason that Barnes chose the hand off approach is probably that he thought it would be difficult to get Brown the ball. Brown frequently has a difficult time getting open at the end of games because the defense knows the ball is going to Brown and because Brown is usually slower than his defender (especially with a sprained ankle).
Kafka - January 19, 2012
Great game!
Nice to see us come back from the deficits and stay with a team who has a really hot shooter. Well played all around by a group of really young guys!
Hate to see the loss but we were never out of it against a really good KSU team.
Ohio Horn - January 19, 2012
I am little worried with the way our team is shaping up for next season.
I don’t think it would be any stretch for Kabongo to declare. He reminds me of Jrue Holiday who left UCLA after his freshman season and only averaged around 5ppg, but was still drafted in the late teens of the first round. I could very easily see him drafted on potential alone. If J’Covan leaves as well which he probably should, don’t see his draft stock getting higher next year, then we will be in another rebuilding year next year.
If Cameron Ridley doesn’t sign this spring we’ll really be hurting in the frontcourt as well.
2Cor12:9 - January 19, 2012
The class should be really deep
Its doubtful both will leave, though not impossible. J’Covan is still really low on draft boards, I’d be more worried about Kabongo but he wouldn’t be as big of a loss to the team.
I think next year will be fun until we lose early in march, like we have 4 of the past 5 seasons
Mclovin1035 - January 19, 2012
Brown drafted in the 1st round? In the NBA?
Brown should not leave unless he is drafted in the first round. Could you provide a link to a draft projection that predicts that Brown will be a first round draft choice? It seems so implausible. He is slow, can’t jump, and will have trouble defending anybody in the NBA. He is too small to be an NBA shooting guard and does not have a point guard’s attitude or speed.
Kafka - January 19, 2012
No I don't have any links.
Going by what many NBA teams draft on and that is potential. JCB is a 4th year junior. What more can he show to NBA scouts by coming back next year? I never said he would be a 1st round pick and don’t think he will. Neither PJ Tucker or Daniel Gibson were 1st round picks and that didn’t stop them from leaving.
BTW I think JCB has a great mentality for an NBA PG. He is a very willing passer, just sometimes gets a little too fancy. I think he would do great coming off the bench and getting points and sparking the second team.
2Cor12:9 - January 19, 2012
He has to learn how to be a point guard, that is his only hope
He can improve hugely as a point guard, especially if Kabongo is gone next year. He can improve his attitude, his point guard mentality, he can get stronger and faster, he can improve his judgement.
He is definitely a shoot first guy right now, which is terrible for a point guard.
Kafka - January 19, 2012
We are talking about an NBA PG.
Shoot first is the new norm. I believe the reigning NBA MVP is a shoot first point guard.
2Cor12:9 - January 19, 2012
J'Covan was born to be Globe Trotter
Caradoc - January 19, 2012
Funny
Kafka - January 19, 2012
He doesn't play point guard
He is not a point guard. He needs to play point guard for a season and demonstrate competency if he wants to get drafted as a point guard. He has no future as a shooting guard. He needs to demonstrate that he understands how to analyze a defense and figure out the optimal way to attack that defense. Brown isn’t going to be close o the best scorer on any NBA team. He will be valued if he can figure out how to best leverage the abilities of his teammates.
Kafka - January 19, 2012
Not sure which player you're watching
His attitude is great, and he has plenty of “point guard mentality.” Dude’s assist rate is 26.6%, one of the best in the country, and he both sees and executes passes better than 99% of players out there.
There are reasons he’s a limited NBA prospect, some of which you’ve identified, but the attitude nonsense is dated, and the suggestion that he’s some short of shoot-first jacker, a la Jordan Hamilton, without the “mentality” to be a point guard is just a bizarre criticism to level at J’Covan Brown. It makes no sense.
Peter Bean - January 19, 2012
I saw him react very negatively to Barnes in the Mizzou game
after he threw a stupid pass. Barnes got on Brown and Brown would have none of it. He was a terrible example to his young teammates on that play. If that is dated, it is only game old.
Subsitute the word psychology for mentality. Brown’s has a shoot first mentality/psychology rather than a pass first attitude. Just because a player has the ability to throw a pass does not mean he has the inclination to throw the pass. There is a reason that Brown is playing shooting guard rather than point guard. Before I believe that Brown will be a good point guard, show me.
Kafka - January 19, 2012
If I write one lousy post am I a terrible blogger?
C’mon man, you can’t cherry pick one moment of emotion and ignore the other 99% of Brown’s outstanding attitude and leadership of this young team. After his freshman year it may be understandable that people are looking for reasons to view him as having a bad attitude, but it’s still wrong. And dated.
As for being a jacker, again you’re cherry picking. See above, regarding assist rate. It’s a rate statistic. It tells you everything you need to know about whether he’s just a shoot-first guy. Moreover, he’s the only player on a team full of freshmen who can consistently create his own offense. On a more experienced and balanced team, I seriously doubt you’d see him trying to take over all on his own. He’s had to do so on occasion because he’s, well, had to do so.
Peter Bean - January 19, 2012
He was jacking up shots last night
He was 8 for 28 with 3 assists. If he is so inclined to pass and so averse to jacking up shots, why didn’t he shoot a bit less and hand out a few more assists? The opportunities were there (his teammates hit over 60%, Kabongo managed to dish out a bunch of assists).
Brown’s mentality is to shoot first. To suggest otherwise is not believable.
Kafka - January 19, 2012
i'd say he's a scorer that likes to pass
glad we have him on our team. i didn’t realize he missed 20 shots last night though (and missed all 8 threes). he probably did try to do a bit too much, but he also missed some layups on some good penetrations
but JCB is always looking for the best opportunity to score
Julien Lewis’ mentality is to shoot first.
following - January 19, 2012
He hit 4 3'z
His scoring was 3,5,7,10,12,14,17,20,22
We need jcovan driving and getting to the line, he’s a monster from there especially in big games
Mclovin1035 - January 20, 2012 via mobile
he hit 4 threes?!
that does sound more reasonable — looks like i’ve got to stop taking my stats from the Box Score they publish on the texassports site after the games.
was he really 8 of 28 then? it sure didn’t seem like he missed 20 shots in the game.
and he’s gotten really good at that spin move – guys can’t even foul him cuz he’s by in a flash
but it’d definitely be good to get to the line more often – i see his Big 12 stroke is back, and getting the other team in foul trouble can only help us.
following - January 20, 2012
He did go 8-28
we got some boards afterwards, and he hit shots when it mattered to close the gap. He took too many, but i’m okay with that. I don’t like him taking almost half of our shots though when he is struggling like he did. He hit 2 of 3 in the last minute, its just too bad he didn’t get a chance to tie or win it at the end
The stat box has been wrong online immediately after the game, but typically is corrected soon after being published. For example after the oklahoma state football game they had ash 21-39 with 1 int. He threw a pick on his last pass, making him 21-40 for the day with 2 ints.
Mclovin1035 - January 20, 2012
JCB in the NBA...
I don’t know. I really hope he can do it, but that league is tough. He needs to find the right situation, obviously. He could certainly be a guy who comes off the bench, who can play the point or the off guard position. He could probably still score and make plays in the NBA.
Daniel Gibson is a really weird case. If he would have come out after his freshman year, I think he easily would have been a first rounder (he still projected “point guard” at that time). Then he decided to enter the draft after his second season. For whatever reason, he would only work out in pre-draft workouts for the Cavs.
I can’t find a good link, but I seem to remember at the time that he really wanted to play with LeBron James. I imagine he might have been a 1st round pick if he had taken a more conventional approach in his workouts.
As for PJ Tucker, I sort of remember that school didn’t really seem to be his thing.
Reggieball - January 19, 2012
he's definitely a 2nd rounder at this point
but that’s a helluva lot better than playing in Lithuania
following - January 19, 2012
in this strech we are 2 and 0
in moral victories. Lucky us!
RQ - January 19, 2012
I don't get why Johnathon Holmes doesnt get more touches..
I think its safe to say he is our most skilled big man but the last few games it doesnt seem like he is even touching the ball. I realize he racks up a lot of fouls but am surprised Barnes doesnt try and do a better job of getting him involved.
And please, no more Wangmane in the high post. Not even sure why he has the ball passed to him that far from the basket.
LongandHorny - January 19, 2012
JH did foul out in 9 mins of PT. Not sure how you can get him more involved when he can't keep himself on the floor.
2Cor12:9 - January 19, 2012
I'd like to see him get the ball more as well
And more Chap/Holmes combinations in the frontcourt. But both foul way too much, a problem UT bigs have seemingly had for years now.
GoHornsGo90 - January 19, 2012
Coaching?
Who coaches the big men for the horns? I could be wrong but I don’t see an actual large coach who seems to be the big man coach. On KU, it is obvious that Danny Manning is the big man coach.
Part of the problem for Texas big men is that they have to defend the guards and forwards that get past their teammates defense (a common occurrence this year), so they pick up a lot of fouls that way. Also, Barnes rarely provides help for his big man defenders in the post, they are left on an island usually. There is a lot of contact underneath and it is easy to pick up fouls inside.
Kafka - January 19, 2012
Big men on an island
OK, here is one of my pet theories derived from my experience playing, watching, and studying basketball. I think you should leave big men on an island defensively in almost every case. Let them sink or swim on their own in low post defense.
Offensively, I think post players can hurt you, but can only do it so much. If you double them, you create huge structural defensive weaknesses that lead to wide open three point shots or drives to the hoop that result in fouls, offensive rebounds, etc. You will lose a lot faster letting these things happen than you will having a guy shooting turnaround jumpers and baby hooks.
This is of course not an original idea of mine. Larry Brown famously used this strategy when Detroit upset the Lakers in the 2004 NBA finals. He refused to double down on Shaq, and played Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace one-on-one against him. These are two good defenders, but Shaq pretty much had his way, scoring 34, 29, 14, 36, and 20 points in the five games of that series. And these were pretty efficient scoring games as well; check out Shaq’s field goal percentages.
Kobe was terrible in that series, and the rest of the Lakers weren’t getting those wide open shots off of Shaq double teams that they were used to getting.
So, if you can afford to play this way against Shaq, who out there is really good enough to “demand” a double team? I say live with the turnaround jumpers and the occasional fouls. (You will also foul if you double team, as there will be drives to the basket after the ball reversal that will draw fouls.) Make that post player drop 50 to beat you. Unless Wilt Chamberlain is showing up, you are probably fine.
Reggieball - January 19, 2012
Another advantage that I neglected...
If you can force the big guy into a turnaround jump shot sort of game, it should reduce offensive rebounds, which is one way that big guys can really hurt you. Offensive rebounds are “free shots” that don’t come at the expense of anyone else, whereas a post up jump shot is not free.
Reggieball - January 19, 2012
Also...
I really hurts me to say that low post offense is often less valuable (the obvious implication of what I wrote above). I love low post play. I am a big man, and will always have a soft spot for the big guys. In my playing days, I played with my back to the hoop on offense pretty much 100% of the time. So these are not the spiteful musings of some angry ex-guard.
Reggieball - January 19, 2012
Completely agree
Which is why I kept yelling at the TV last night when Clint Chapman kept uselessly trying to block shots of an opponent we had defended with someone already. Result? Offensive rebound by the guy Chapman abandoned.
Drove me crazy.
Peter Bean - January 19, 2012
we need better blocking out in general
following - January 19, 2012
Right there with you
Always has been my major beef with Rick Barnes. We don’t see very good box outs. This is something that he can fix.
Reggieball - January 19, 2012
it's weird but
the only real “blocking out” that i remember seeing this year was JCB against Harrison Barnes
following - January 20, 2012
I would love to be able to estimate the opportunity cost of going for a blocked shot.
There is probably some sort of crazy thought experiment that I can come up with at some point to do some estimates around it. Blocked shots are good, and Chapman gets a lot of them, but they also remove one defensive rebounder from the play and break one box out assignment.
On a related note, did you see this fan post at Rock Chalk Talk? It jives with what you are talking about. Drawing a helping defender creates offensive rebounds.
Reggieball - January 19, 2012
I hadn't seen that
Thanks for the link. Makes a ton of sense. It also jives with the main reason Tyshawn Taylor has a lot more value than you’d think, given how crappy he often looks doing it — he’s great at getting to the rim, where he either draws fouls or helps break down the defense, which if nothing else sets up his teammates for offensive rebounding. If he could cut down on turnovers, he’d be that much more valuable.
Peter Bean - January 20, 2012
Tyshawn Taylor
My database has Taylor getting 37% of his field goal attempts at the rim, which is a solid rate. He makes 56% of these shots. As a point of comparison, Myck Kabongo gets 39% of his shots at the rim and makes 62% of them. Myck also gets fouled more than Taylor.
Taylor turns the ball over some, but I think this is a little bit overblown. His turnover rate is 22%. Point of comparison again is Myck Kabongo, with a 25.7% turnover rate.
As an aside, J’Covan has an amazing 10.9% turnover rate. That is a n unbelievable number for a guard, particularly one who is as aggressive as JCB. Rick Barnes has a long track record of getting guys to value the basketball and cut down their turnovers over time, so it isn’t a surprise.
Taylor has Kabongo like rates of turnovers and getting to the rim. Taylor is also a very good shooter. Taylor has a somewhat lower assist rate than Kabongo, but the difference isn’t that large. So if you want to understand Taylor’s offensive game, just think of him as Myck Kabongo with a jumper.
Reggieball - January 20, 2012
Hakeem Olajuwon
Ask David Robinson and the Spurs.
But your point stands, and it’s a good one.
pleaseplaykindle - January 19, 2012
i.e.
“I don’t know how I can say it with a straight face… but most of the time I thought I defended him pretty well.” – David Robinson on Hakeem Olajuwon
pleaseplaykindle - January 19, 2012
Love it
Olajuwon was my all time favorite player.
Reggieball - January 19, 2012
every time J Holmes gets one of those silly reach in fouls
it reminds me of Olajuwon and how he’d often do the same thing after a turnover or lost rebound
following - January 20, 2012
Hey man what you know about this 9th grade white kid named Mickey Mithcell from the Dallas area?
Kid is a 6’6 PG and is a beast!
2Cor12:9 - January 19, 2012
Thomas Gipson
In the battle of freshman, Gipson demolished our guys. That’s the game we need from Bond and Holmes.
Caradoc - January 19, 2012
Gipson has a ridiculous body for a freshman - huge kid
but yeah we could definitely use that game. Bond has struggled in conference play (thinking too much? or just doesn’t have the strength yet). I don’t know if Holmes has ever really played post defense before. I’m looking forward to next year and what he’ll do at the 3 spot
following - January 19, 2012
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Burnt Orange Nation to post a comment.