Prior to Saturday's massacre in Stillwater, I pointed out that Texas had absolutely dominated Keiton Page and Oklahoma State for going on three seasons, so you can understand why I'm terrified of saying anything about tonight's huge match up against the Baylor Bears. I seriously contemplated a reverse jinx post:
Scott Drew is, once again, overachieving in the regular season. Armed with the least talented team in the Big 12, Drew has nevertheless found a way to get this group to an impressive 9-5 mark in conference play, and they almost got to 10 wins on Saturday but narrowly missed the upset in Waco against Kansas State, falling 57-56. I never cease to marvel how a coach can so consistently get so much out of so little talent, but year in and year out, there's Scott Drew and Baylor, knocking on the postseason door with a team that has no business winning any games.
Fortunately, my brilliant colleague Reggieball has treated us to an excellent primer on the Bears personel, so I'll just tiptoe around anything resembling a prediction and just file a quick note on the huge stakes tonight.
Although there would have been nothing illegitimate about Texas getting to 10 conference wins without defeating one of the top four teams in the conference, that number will be a lot more meaningful come Selection Sunday if the Longhorns get there with a win over Baylor or Kansas among the victories. And given how extraordinarily unlikely it is that Texas wins at Allen Fieldhouse in the regular season finale, tonight's game is it, unless the 'Horns have a run in the Big 12 tournament in them.
If Texas does in fact finish 2-1 over its final three regular season games after tonight, and if it doesn't win two or more games in Kansas City, then for the Longhorns tonight's game might well be a play-in match up for the NCAA Tournament. Beat Baylor and Texas can feel good about its chances on Selection Sunday. Lose, and it's time to start busting out the rooting guides for the stretch runs and post-season tournaments in other conferences.
Texas probably can't complain too much if it loses tonight but doesn't hear its name called by the Selection Committee. If we fall short in every opportunity we've had against Top 25 competition, we're at the mercy of the worthiness of other bubble teams, and at the end of the day, while if we didn't get in there would always be arguments that Texas should have been included over Team A, if we did get in there would always be arguments that Team B should have been included over Texas.
Such is life on the NCAA Tournament margins. It's not an experience Texas fans have had to go through since Rick Barnes came to Austin.... and hopefully, with a win tonight, we still may not.
Hook 'em
0 recs | 13 comments
One gigantic opportunity tonight for the Horns....
at some point, you have to win one of these types of games to ensure your ticket to the big tourney. Basically a play-in game at home tonight. No more margin for error, and no reason to whine if we don’t make the tourney (if we lose tonight).
Go Horns!!
silky51 - February 20, 2012
sigh - you are right on
If we had held serve against the bottom feeders – I honestly believe we were in. Now we have to break back in with a win against either Kansas or Baylor to make the big dance. I suggest tonite as the Jayhawks will be thirsty to avenge the end of the streak.
realmccoy - February 20, 2012 via mobile
I think we'll still get in if we beat OU and Tech, but this would certainly help (and possibly help us avoid the first round).
Texas Wahoo - February 20, 2012
Ehhh
If texas wins OU and Tech they finish the regular season 19-12. Not exactly NCAA tourney worthy. They need to win tonight, that’s it. Sure they can win games in the Big XII tourney but life would be much easier for them if they win tonight, and win 1 game in the Big XII tourney to finish with at least 21 wins.
Mclovin1035 - February 20, 2012
Hopefully we won't have to find out, but the other bubble teams are particularly weak this year.
Texas Wahoo - February 20, 2012
I Would Say We Are Out in that Scenario
Because we just would not have a signature win.
realmccoy - February 20, 2012
agreed.
NCAA is not shy about concluding that a team did not make the field beause they simply lacked quality wins. I see that explanation every sunday night after the brackets come out….never fails.
silky51 - February 20, 2012
Perhaps, although what amazing wins do the teams that could knock us out have?
Seton Hall is in the last bracketology and their best win is against UConn, who might very well be playing themselves out of the tourney.
Texas Wahoo - February 20, 2012
tonight's the night
we either prove that we can beat a good team, or that we can’t
following - February 20, 2012
As it stands, Baylor is the worst (most inconsistent) of the top 4 teams in the conference...
…and we do have a good shot to beat them at home.
Amen Amachigh - February 20, 2012
Keiton Page
Back in the day, we had the answer: Dogus Balbay. I sure do miss that guy.
Caradoc - February 20, 2012
Hmm
I liked him too, but I think Kabongo is muuuuch better on the offensive end. But with Balbay there’s no way Page drops 40
HookemHouston - February 20, 2012
Not if the refs get Balbay in foul trouble, we'd be just as screwed
goingforthecorner - February 20, 2012
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